U.S. Doesn’t Need Canada After All

Another change of mind and also in a direction by the US as led by the Donald. Testin other countries or a lack of concentration and direction. Kind of embarrassing as we have a leader who can not stay focused.

I don’t think it’s going to be a boom. It’s going to go boom. Like a bomb. A big one.

Economic growth has flatlined so far this year. Inflation has picked up. And consumers expect both to get worse in the months ahead.

Why it matters: For the moment, it adds up to Wall Street’s least-favorite “s-word,” stagflation — stagnant growth mixed with elevated inflation.

  • That pattern, most vividly seen in the 1970s, is particularly painful because it means people experience pain from both lack of job opportunities and higher prices.
  • It also leaves the Fed and other economic policymakers with less ability to cushion the blow because a move that might address one side of the problem could worsen the other.

The big picture: The takeaway, from a slew of recent data, is that President Trump inherited a shakier economy than it seemed and is risking something worse with aggressive policy moves.

State of play: The backward-looking data lately has been distinctly stagflationary. Consumer spending in the first two months of 2025 has been soft, coming in 0.6% below its December rate (when adjusted for inflation).

  • A real-time estimate of GDP published by the Atlanta Fed is now pointing to economic activity shrinking at an 0.5% rate in Q1, which ends Monday (after adjusting for gold inflows that distort economic data).
  • Meanwhile, the inflation measure favored by the Fed has risen at a 4.1% annual rate in the first two months of 2025, the highest in a year.
  • That all helps explain why, following a steep selloff Friday, the S&P 500 is now 9% below its Feb. 19 high.

Reality check: The GDP number appears to be depressed by a one-time surge of imports as companies try to get ahead of tariffs. Inflation has been on a bumpy path for years

Gosh I wonder what happened about four months ago that collapsed the American economic trajectory? I can’t think of anything.