The case for a national unity ticket
Will Biden drop out? Should he? What then?
To run or not to run
So far Biden seems determined to stay in the presidential race. He and his campaign have worked hard to tamp down any talk that he might step aside.
Yet there is a reasonable chance he will step aside, especially if his polls drop. If he stays in and loses, he will have to live with the fact that he lost one of the most consequential elections in American history. Just as important, he will not become a revered elder stateman. He will be vilified by Democrats and very, very alone. There will be no rehabilitation and no second chances. It will be a deeply painful retirement for an ambitious man long accustomed to public adulation. And the wrath of Democrats will fall on his family and closest friends and aides as well as on him personally.
So it is conceivable that Biden will step down.
I am not sure if Biden should step down or not, because I don’t know if the Democrat who replaces him would have a better chance of winning in November.
The issue here is not just whether Biden drops in the polls in the next week or two. To be sure, a substantial drop in support would strengthen the case for a new nominee. But even if his polls hold steady, we still need to ask if Biden will be able to vigorously prosecute the case against Trump. His scripted appearances so far – using a teleprompter in front of friendly audiences – do little to ease my concerns. On the other hand, even if we lose confidence in him, we still need to ask if whoever takes his place will be a stronger candidate than he would be. The uncomfortable truth is that Biden may be the best option on offer despite his serious limitations.
A national unity ticket
Although I am not sure if Biden should step down, I do believe that if he does step down, the Democrats should put forward a national unity ticket. By a national unity ticket, I mean a ticket with 1) a Never Trump Republican in the VP slot and 2) an explicit commitment to only pursuing policies that will win broad support from the American people.
Democrats need to focus on winning over Republicans who disapprove of Trump and potential RFK and Libertarian party voters in swing states.* A national unity ticket would give the Democrats credibility when they ask Republicans to vote for them for the good of the country. Putting a Never Trump Republican on the ticket will make clear that Democrats reject Trumpism but regard traditional Republicans as loyal Americans despite our differences over policy. A unity platform – one that explicitly disavowed controversial policies and embraced compromise – would do the same. It would assuage the fears of Republicans who – rightly or wrongly – distrust Democrats on critical issues like immigration and the economy. It would make it clear that Democrats are not seeking to leverage fears about Trump for narrow partisan advantage. Their fears for American democracy are sincere.
Biden was tacitly a national unity candidate in 2020 – a Democrat, a familiar, older white male unlikely to do anything too crazy, committed to unions and sympathetic to workers in the industrial heartland, mainstream views on criminal justice, etc. Without Biden on the ticket, the outreach to voters who favor an incremental approach to policy change or who reject the more progressive parts of the Democratic party’s agenda needs to be more explicit.
A national unity platform would require compromise on policy demands and rhetorical modesty, not policy maximalism and calls for revolution. A unity platform would have to endorse compromise on immigration policy. It would have to put aside controversial policies like a wealth tax and reparations for black Americans. It would need to scale back or postpone plans for a significant expansion of the welfare state, although some progressive policies in this area (like an expanded child tax credit) could be part of a unity agenda.
The Democrats will give up little of importance on policy by embracing compromise and putting aside their most controversial policy proposals. Many Democratic positions are highly popular and could be part of a unity platform. Abortion is an obvious example; preserving Social Security and Medicare is another. More fundamentally, even if the Democrats win a trifecta – highly unlikely – Congress will be closely divided and the Democrats will need Republican support for their policy agenda. Without a trifecta Republican support will be even more critical. Incremental change will be the best Democrats can hope for.**/***
A unity ticket would upset party activists, but Democratic voters would be just fine with it. Black voters were happy to support the centrist Biden in the South Carolina primary in 2020, and Democrats around the country were happy to follow their lead. What Democratic voters want is to feel that they can win. A unity candidate would be more likely to win than a candidate running a standard campaign and would not do any worse at achieving democratic policy goals if elected.****
I do not deny that the policy differences between Democrats and Republicans are real and important. But this election is not the time to put these differences front and center. This election should be framed as a choice between Trump and his minions and people of both parties who reject his corrupt view of government.
*What about the risk of losing highly progressive Stein/West voters? There will be very few Stein/West voters in swing states, because voting for Stein/West is deeply irrational. For this reason, Stein/West voters will be very difficult to win over. The fact that a national unity ticket might be off-putting to a small number of unpersuadable voters is not an important reason to reject it.
**A Republican VP committed to bipartisanship could conceivably help keep congressional Republicans from engaging in a campaign of obstruction, though any prediction here is highly uncertain.
***Remember that the ability of a Democratic president to make policy through executive branch agencies will be reduced by the recent string of anti-agency Supreme Court decisions.
****I also believe that Democrats will do better in the long run – they will achieve their main policy goals faster and to a greater extent, and will have a better chance of becoming a dominant party – if they stop making grandiose promises to voters, promises they inevitably fail to keep. But I will not argue this here.
If Biden steps down, it will be Kamala Harris:
• she has been a heartbeat away from the presidency for 3.5 years and the only potential candidate who has been a VP;
• if she is passed over, it will be clear that she was always just a token to win women and people of color to the Biden ticket, and women and people of color will stay home in November in protest;
• from what I’ve read, she can access the money donated to the Biden/Harris campaign–no other candidate can.
Look, I have no doubt that Harris can serve effectively as president. But can she campaign and beat Trump? Color me skeptical. But she’s the only alternative to Biden.
Newsom and Cheney. Liz that is!
Bob, competency is a critical issue(among the electorate) for the (re)electability of 46.
What if there are enough democrats and independents and Cheney Republicans who are so turned off by the overt lying of the democrat party about the competency issue, that 46 has an extremely low probability of winning? This is what big donors are currently worried about. A well- published standardized dementia test and exam by (a) neutral neurologist(s) could do much to dispel the issue. This hasn’t happened and is not likely to happen for reasons that are probably now obvious to the electorate.
Any other democrat candidate could immediately loose the border, the inflation, the family corruption , and competency baggage and issues ascribed to the current president and concentrate on the issues of majority voter concern: SC members reversing their positions (and implied promises) testifying as SC candidates before congress resulting in a overturn of a country unifying Roe decision and a potential imperial presidency; the support of the upper 0.1- 1% with prior and promised renewed tax cuts; affordable housing and rent, oil and food company corporate gouging of consumers during Covid causing inflation; the proposed import tariffs which would significantly increase product inflation for bottom 90 percent, the lack of a social security salvage plan; the new totalitarian affiliations with both the prior republican and democrat parties solidly viewing totalitarians as enemies of a free America; character issues that are six sigma beyond the pale of a normal human functioning; et. al.
A {(New) Deal} Democrat candidate would inmmediately have immense advantages over #46 in winning the presidential election.
TEF:
Who the hell is Bob, supposed doctor and expert? Are you coding him so as to collect more in funds?
Freudian slip? (unintentional error regarded as revealing subconscious feelings).
Have you had that checked out with your doctor? I mean you are up in years and this could be a growing issue for you if you do not seek assistance early on TEF.
“Fauci, the former director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and a key figure overseeing the United States response to the COVID-19 pandemic said that it would be “inappropriate” to call Biden’s debate performance alarming, as medical professionals cannot diagnose someone based only on a 90-minute debate.”
Fauci Speaks Out About Doubts Around Biden’s Mental State
@Bill,
I guess you didn’t get the memo: TEF has telepathic powers that operate through the TV. He doesn’t need to actually see a patient, order psychiatric tests and/or imaging. No evidence, just authority. I don’t know what the code is for telepathic diagnosis.
TEF
a “new deal Democrat” would not need a “Social Security salvage plan.” anyone who understands the New Deal should know that SS does not need a slavage plan. it needs a very modest increase in the payroll tax to match SS income with needed benefits.
we also don’t need a public “dementia test.” we cannot run the country by having our candidates vetted by “experts.” I do hope that Biden is consulting with good doctors so HE can decide whether he should continue to run. If it is likely he can get through the rest of the year without a public “episode”….and he does…he will win the election. at this point all that matters is to stop Trump and Trumpists….If, after re-election he is unable to continue we would have to hope Democrats would find a way to stop an insane Supreme Court…maybe make them all take a psychological fitness test? I know Alito would not pass. As for the other plotters against democracy, I am not sure treason and criminality would show up as a mental disorder, but if you are in to that kind of thing I think they can identify sociopathic personality traits
TEF:
Your comment on the military is in the trash. For what reason?
For your comments on the military having to take the Oath of Allegiance. Why would I trash you for such. There was one time when I took the Oath of Allegiance and that was when I enlisted and was down at McAfees in Chicago 1968. That was the only time. There were four times when I was promoted . . . PFC, Lance Corporal, Corporal, and Sergeant. No Oath of Allegiance each time. Only the traditional of all the others of the same rank I was promoted to punching each shoulder so as to press the new stripes into each shoulder. It was congratulations for the promotion.
You should know this and it appears you did not know this about taking the Oath in the beginning and not occurring again afterwards. Why would you need too? The Uniform Code of Military Conduct probably covers violations of that Oath. If not so, what is called the Captain’s Cloak probably will cover it.
I am XMilitary
You are correct regarding enlisted personnel; enlisted give the oath only on enlistment and reenlistment; officers, the oath, at every promotion.
TEF:
I know I am right. I had to be right or else. I was made a Sergeant (USMC) in a little over two years. They wanted me to stay and go to college and to OCS. I went to NYC to see about a beautiful woman and stayed. Best move I ever made and went to gain an MA later in Chicago.
Semper Fi. Served at Naval Hospital Camp Pendleton for five years in late 70’s and 80’s and served with the 1st MEF at Camp Commando during OIF in 2003.
Gary:
In and out of Lejeune to places like Cuba, etc., drinking the water and showering in the water. They finally decided to allow us to file for disability. I was the skinny kid who could outrun the others and carry some of their gear and outshoot the Bn with a stock M14 out of the armory. My scoutmaster taught me how to shoot with a 513T and M1s. I was 14.
Feels unnecessary. Even if you accept the idea Biden on the ticket is a big problem, taking him off solves it entirely. I agree with Joel that Harris probably would get it. Probably better for party unity to have a second Democrat. To me a national unity ticket sort of suggests Democrats acknowledging some fundamental errors in the Biden years. I may agree with that, but think a party ought to stay away from that if it can. Better probably to just say the President’s health deteriorated quickly since the nominating process started and we need to switch. Again, that point can be made more effectively if Joe leaves office, not just withdraws his candidacy. Maybe tomorrow on Independence Day, the President does a final important duty for the country (and helps his party).
It doesn’t matter what you and I think about Biden’s health and mental acuity. What matters are the undecided and low-information voters who will either choose to stay home or vote for Trump. All of this sturm and drang, caused by a clearly diminished candidate (“are you going to believe me or your lying eyes?”), draws further attention to the fact that Biden is old and diminished. So, trying to delude yourselves into believing Biden can win is a fool’s errand – maybe he can, but it does not currently look promising. He was losing BEFORE the debate even with all of the great things his administration has objectively done for the country. If you feel the way I do, I”m truly fearful anytime Biden makes an impromptu public appearance. If he doesn’t botch it, then I breath a sigh of relief. Is that a plan for success in one of the biggest elections ever? He, quite frankly, is unable to prosecute the case against Trump. And that must be done. What does a coach do when loosing in the 4th quarter) – make a change – find players who can exploit the other team’s weakness. And the Democrats have so many good players and all the other side has is a blustery old crazy man. One appearance next to Kamala, Gavin, Pete, Meg, etc and the script will change to Trump is old and crazy vs current script that Biden is old. Of course, getting to Kamala, Gavin, Pete or Meg is the hard part…
@TAA,
Kamala Harris is the only alternative. All the ones you mentioned would make fine presidents, light years better than Trump. But if the Democrats dump Harris, lots of women and people of color will stay home, which will not only put Trump in the WH, but will prevent the Democrats from holding the Senate and taking the House back. Plus, from what I’ve read, only Harris can access the Biden/Harris campaign funds if Biden steps down. The others will have to start from scratch, four months from Election Day.
TAA
“it doesn’t matter what you and I think…” and then you tell us what you think, as though it matters. yes, Biden at least has a perception problem. one he can overcome if the perception is wrong and he can project strength through the election and inauguration.
that remains to be seen…and i hope that Biden knows whether he can…is very like to. and that if he is unlikely to finds a way to step down and nominate a successor. but right now all these clever ideas… based on the assumption that it is obvious he cannot… just feed the Trumpism plan…which began calling Biden too old long before it was “obvious.” Hell, the whole media has been calling the whole country “too old” for a long time. are we dealing with a genration still stuck in “you can’t trust anyone over 30” mode? for some strange reason throughout history and pre-history age was regarded as a source of wisdom…which is where i should stop because i .. like you…am losing sight of the real problem: stopping Trump and his Court.
TAA:
I do not feel like editing your comment and split it into paragraphs.
That you fail to recognize all the lies said by trump during those 90 minutes is worrisome. Biden does not have to point them out individually. You should recognize them yourself. Biden does not have to prosecute them. You should already know what a liar and a fraud trump is. Biden made his case, although too quiet for many to hear them.
trump attracted your attention with his lies, and you said “nothing” about them.
Bloomberg: “House Democrats Consider Demanding Biden Withdraw from Race.” https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-03/biden-debate-disaster-will-cost-them-house-and-senate-democrats-fear?srnd=homepage-americas
Naked Capitalism on how Democrats got themselves into such a predicament (great read): Biden Slips a Cog: Second Time as Tragedy, Second Time as Farce, or Both?
Serious people are looking at things beyond the obvious fact that Trump lied.
Wandering thru the NC on “Biden slips a cog”. Found:
”OMG, Biden is going to take us all down”
JohhH
From time to time, Yves and I will talk (email) for a few minutes. I almost went to Naked Capitalism. It is a great place to write. When it came right down to it, I was better off here with my friend Dan. If you like to read lambert, that is great. Do not post it here.
trump lying during the debate is far more serious than Biden being sick and unable to think properly. When you are sick, your mind is not as sharp. When you are taking antihistamines, they do make you sleepy and can impact your memory. Fauci Speaks Out About Doubts Around Biden’s Mental State
1. “it would be “inappropriate” to call Biden’s debate performance alarming, as medical professionals cannot diagnose someone based only on a 90-minute debate.”
2. “Did he have a bad cold? Did he take an antihistamine to make him groggy? We don’t know what went on,” Fauci said.
3. Fauci said he did not have concerns about Biden’s capability while serving in the White House. He was Biden’s chief medical adviser until the end of 2022 and has not worked in politics since.
As far as dept of intellect?
“He’s very probing in his questions, very analytical, very calm about things when you go into brief him…you better really know your topic because he’s going to ask you very relevant questions; and he’s very reflective on things and just doesn’t jump out with questions on anything but is very analytical. My interactions with him, I have to say, have been very, very positive in every way,”
Fauci: “based on his interactions with Biden, he has “no doubt” about the president’s mental capabilities.”
Well having “no doubt about the President’s mental capabilities” doesn’t actually answer what he thought about those capabilities. There are tens of millions of Americans that no longer have doubts….that’s the problem.
Eric
very, very cheap shot. you know damn well what he meant, and you know that Fauci has more credibility as a witness than
Bloomberg: “House Democrats Consider Demanding Biden Withdraw from Race.”
which seems to imply that at least a lot of House Democrats…rather than two or three who normally vote with Republicans.
Kramer
much of what you say is likely to be true. But it is premature. Right now all you are doing is adding to the panic generated by the pundits who are and have always been against policies that limit the power of those who pay their salaries..and that’s not only “the Right,” but the radical center, and even the apparently Left.
we do not need a Republican. The Republican Party is sold out to the insurrectionists. And the long term “policy” of Repulicans has been “anti New Deal” [since Eisenhower] which for now I am using as a euphemism for “stupid and cruel.”
As far as I am concerned, it may be paranoid, but it is safer to believe that Republicans have found a way to slip arsenic into Biden’s tea than to imagine we need a “unity government.” Hell, that’s what we have had since at least Clinton. They hate Biden because he has actually broken that tie that binds Democrats to the money interests. [“They” being the uniparty.]
as for the far Left ….their function appears to be to scare ordinary people into the arms of the Right. we couold have an honest and sane Left, but somehow that’s not what we get.
I may not be as paranoid as the above sounds. Biden certainly has not broken with the money interests entirely…but that would not be possible given political reality, and probably the ideas Biden himself absorbed over a lifetime of breathing the air in the Senate. But Biden has certainly moved into territory that the Money interests do not like. And those money interests may, with Trump, have begun to smell Victory…a thousand year solution to the problem of ordinary people having a say in the rules.
for those who don’t know…it has been speculated that the British slow-poisoned Napoleon with arsenic while they held him prisoner.
Starting to look like the Democratic Party is a party that can’t fight its’ way out of a wet paper bag, every time the repubs go “boo!” they ask “how high should I jump?”
Every bit of this plays right into the repubs’ hands …
Ten Bears:
Then we have the faux-Dems who do not know what unity is. At the first sign of trouble, they will abandon the person to save themselves. This kind of reminds me of 2016, when the Dem vote for the Greens, etc. and others elected trump. We are on the same path. After all is said and done, they will disappear and wring their hands in desperation looking for answers. The answers are them.
Rethugs can’t lose in this.
The longer it goes on in the front pages, the more they defend… the more questions to fight.
Friday Stephanopoulis interview may not help. They will allege staged, edited and softball…..
paddy:
You are right, there is nothing to be said in support of Biden. Toss away almost 4 years of a successful economy, doing more during a pandemic than Repubs did during the 2008 blowup by Wall Street gambling (McConnell wanted a one term Pres (Obama) – he failed), battling the Court over Student Loan relief, etc.
And where was trump all this time? Playing the big cheese, lying to the public, screwing over his vendors by not paying them, not paying taxes, etc. And you will promote trump over Biden? Yes, Biden may have his issues. Biden did so much more than the previous presidents including Clinton. If you are talking about NC, do it elsewhere. WE do not do free advertising.
Don’t put in a corner again. We have good relations with NC. We do not do hysterics.
Okay, you are not a naive person. It is entirely possible that the human being Joe Biden will distract voters an awful lot from the accomplishments of the Biden administration at exactly the worst possible time for the Democratic Party. That is pretty much what a lot of the Democratic Party is thinking now. Prove to them that they are wrong. Right now, it feels like you are merely arguing that they are not loyal enough, but it is not disloyalty to want to improve your party’s chances of prevailing. Opinions clearly differ on the matter, and keeping Biden is likely better for Trump, so sort it out as you can.
Eric:
Supposition, again by you. Trump won because of the anybody but trump or Clinton. So they abandon Clinton and voted for anything. You can do that agai and I will be pounding on you and the others.
Eric
loyalty is nice. backbone is better.
the Dems can cut and run. But imagine a saga in which Dems, led by an old man with a terminal illness turned back the Forces of Evil at the gates.
It’s not as if the Dems had a new Young Hero ready to charge forth and slay the Dragon….or any chance whatsoever that another candidate at this date, under these circumstances, would beat Trump.
This is an economic blog so I will leave out:
providing the means for IDF causing massive civilian deaths in Palestine,
and arming and informing the NATO fight with a nuclear super power 6000 miles from USA.
or losing the non aligned Eurasia,
or the fact that Trump borrowed twice as much federal money as Biden to get out of the malaise from shuttering the economy for the virus in 2020. The spring 2021 relief act was seen by a lot of people as too much federal transfer payment income than really needed that contributed to rising price level.
If you think Biden’s economy is healthier than his age related issues….
While beating inflation was the unaligned federal reserve. With a soft landing, so far.
Observers can get different conclusions. In the weapon test world we look for instrument error and observer error/ contractor bias.
Paddy:
You should not mention the slaughter of the Palestinians in the Gaza strip as you do not know what you are talking about. War can be a form of economics.
“Of the $8.4 trillion President Trump added to the debt, $3.6 trillion came from COVID relief laws and executive orders, $2.5 trillion from tax cut laws, and $2.3 trillion from spending increases, with the remaining executive orders having costs and savings that largely offset each other,” budget experts with the CRFB wrote in a summary of the report.
The rising price levels were the result of supply chain manipulation. There was no reason for the backup at LA Port, etc. Suppliers learned from 2008 they could manipulate prices by limiting manufacturing, inventory, and product size. Lessons from 2008.
The Fed can increase its rate all they wan, it will not fix supply chain issues.
I do not care about the weapon test world.
Biden did the right things to soften the blow of the pandemic o the economy.
paddy
sounds like you never liked Biden anyway. and that suggests to me your opinion on replacing Biden should be regarded with suspicion.
not so much about the possibility of your purposely giving bad advice, as the depth of your understanding about the impracticality of abandoning an ally in the Middle East, but as about your failure to understand the Munich syndrome of appeasing an aggressor with world conquest ambitions.
i take it that you are not a Russian or Republican mole but just the sort of person who would tell the mob to take his daughters and leave him in peace.
This unity ticket sounds a lot like the No Labels effort.
I do believe that the Democratic Party needs to think hard about a new ticket. I don’t think that Kamala Harris should be the de facto nominee if Biden decides not to run. If she does want to run I think it should be in a wide open nominating contest. This idea that the money raised for Biden/Harris should default to her is a bad idea. Vice Presidents are typically not chosen for their own electability, rather to bring some kind of balance to a ticket.
I think the best VP choice in our generation was Al Gore in 1992. He was very similar to Bill Clinton, he didn’t bring an electoral advantage, but he was a good sharp politician. He would have been a fine president.
Dick Cheney was a disaster for Bush, he brought us the worst foreign policy decision, invading Iraq, in a century. Joe Biden was also a weak choice for Obama, already past his prime in 2008. Kamala Harris was also a weak choice, Biden trapped himself into a black female candidate who did little for the ticket. In her time in office she has yet to distinguish herself.
As to compromising on a platform I have yet to see a Republican idea that has much merit. The country overwhelmingly agrees with most of the Democratic platform, whether on gun control, taxes, abortion, etc. The Republican Party platform is two fold: tax cuts for billionaires and no abortions.
The money will default to Harris as a matter of law and is not transferrable to anyone else.
Jack:
Thank you.
Jim Han
well, I certainly agree with your last paragraph.
[i do disagree with the “new ticket”. it is both too late and too soon. The damage has been done. It will take a little time to see if it can be undone. So far ther are encouraging signs.
Bailing on Biden now would demonstrate the “spinelssness” of Democrats.]
It differs from No Labels in at least two important ways. First, No Labels was a third party, one that was arguably morphing into a rat-fucking operation for Republicans. Second, a Democrat would be at the head of the ticket, and that person could be from the center or center-left. No Labels would have put a moderate Republican at the top of the ticket, or a Manchin-type Democrat.
kramer
how does “unity party” differ from “no labels”?
or a mixture of R’s and D’s from a mixture of R’s and D’s dinos from cut and run?
I was admonished here a few months ago for opening a dialogue on an alternative to Biden. Oh how times change. I still think Andy Beshear with Wes Moore would win in a landslide.
Mark:
Still not enough reason. That was here by the way: https://angrybearblog.com/2024/04/2024-election-life-and-death-game-theory-voting?purge_success
When making comments and if you need more room, you can make the comment box bigger by going to the lower right-hand corner where all the dots are. Click on it and hold and draw the comment box downward.
Bill
sounds like advice i could have used trying to fit a cut and paste into the comment box. but your program took care of it automatically as when i pressed post comment the cut and paste magically shrunk to fit.