Fukuyama on Russia, Ukraine, and the future of democracy
I was planning to make this argument, but Fukuyama says it better than I would have:
Thirdly, a Russian military failure—meaning at minimum the liberation of territories conquered after 24 February 2022—will have enormous political reverberations around the world. Russia and China prior to the war argued that liberal democracies, particularly the United States, were in decline. They argued that their authoritarian systems were better at accomplishing big tasks and acting decisively. What has happened instead is that the Russian model of centralized decision-making, centered around one man, has committed one of the gravest political blunders in recent history. Putin, isolated during the pandemic and out of touch with the reality both of his own military and of public opinion in Ukraine, believed that he would be greeted there as a liberator. China, for its part, is seeing its rate of growth tanking as the result of a “zero-Covid” policy that its paramount leader, Xi Jinping, seems determined not to waver from. Western democracies, by contrast, have appeared united and determined in the face of this challenge.
If the Ukrainians don’t simply hold out against Russia but actually defeat Russia’s massive army and force it to retreat, the positive reverberations will be felt across the globe. Populist nationalists around the world, from Viktor Orbán to Matteo Salvini to Marine Le Pen to Donald Trump, have expressed admiration for Putin’s style of strongman rule. A Russian defeat and humiliation will puncture this narrative of the advantages of authoritarian government, and might lead to a rekindling of democratic self-confidence. It has been easy for publics in Western democracies to take for granted the peace and prosperity brought about by the liberal world order. It may be the case that every generation needs to relearn the lesson that the alternatives to liberal democracy lead to violence, repression, and ultimately economic failure. Such a lesson will be driven home if the world sees brave Ukrainians fighting for their country succeed beyond all expectations.
Ukraine will win. Slava Ukraini!
Who was it that said” Democracy is the worst kind of government except for all the rest” or words to that effect? I remember it was a mantra of my youth but age and cocktails have weakened my recall. Anyway you get my point— this is a lesson that has to be taught and relearned.
Churchill, maybe?
” They argued that their authoritarian systems were better at accomplishing big tasks and acting decisively”
of course. democracy was invented to stop them from accomplishing big tasks and acting decisively, experience having shown that the big tasks always had something to do with killing people.
i once had a boss who prided herself on being able to make a decision in a heartbeat. But somehow it was always a bad decision.
and still people are suckered into this “great leader” myth. it is because, i suppose, having failed in their own lives to get anyone to pay attention to them, they were hoping a great leader at the head of a brutal gang, which they could join, would get them what they wanted by brute force. it is, sadly, a motive still lurking in the human brain from it’s reptile origins a hundred million years ago. getting along with your neighbor is a relatively new idea.
It took about 600 years for approximately English speaking people to advance from the Magna Carta to constitutional quasi-representative republicanism. I would hope something more quasi-democratic might emerge in another 400 years. Actual democracy will probably take much longer than that. Fukuyama is absolutely correct on the sentiment, but liberally romantic on the semantics. Authoritarianism is still the best business case for the guillotine execution of the ruling class although public hanging seems a more appropriate solution for Putin, Trump, et al.
the guillotine was authoritarianism by rule of the people, which some call democracy. once you start killing the bad guys, it gets easier and easier to spot them in a crowd.
i’d like to see Trump stripped of his power, by law and public opinion. that would be enough, if there weren’t 80 million Americans willing to give him shelter.
Coberly,
I was raised to never be the first to resort to violence to settle a dispute, but always be the last.
Ukraine Deflates MAGA Macho Myths
NY Times – Paul Krugman – Sep 12
Ukraine Deflates MAGA Macho Myths
NY Times – Paul Krugman – Sep 12
… there’s something special about the MAGA embrace of the mystique of Russian might: a worldview that equates tough-guy swagger with effectiveness. This worldview has warped the right’s perception not just of the Russian Army but also of how to deal with many other issues. And it’s worth asking where it comes from.
Many Republicans have admired Putin for a long time — even before Donald Trump took over the G.O.P. Back in 2014, for example, Rudy Giuliani said of Putin, “That’s what you call a leader.” And Trump continued to praise Putin even after he invaded Ukraine.
So it’s not hard to see where the MAGA right’s admiration for Putinism comes from. After all, Putin’s Russia is autocratic, brutal and homophobic, with a personality cult built around its ruler. What’s not to like? …
Eric:
I do not know if Ukraine will win. It is too soon to tell. Russia has other means which it can fall back on if they believe they are in danger.
Lets wait and see.
I would remember Zhao Enlai’s famous answer to a question about the ramifications of the French Revolution: “It’s too soon to tell.”
Been a while . . .