So suggests Noah Smith:
My view is that Putin is banking on congressional Republicans.
At this point is seems clear that the Ukrainian army is better than the Russian army (more motivated, better trained and led) and that NATO weapons are better than Russian weapons. If the current coalition in support of Ukraine holds together, a Trump victory in 2024 would be too late to salvage a Russian victory in Ukraine.
Putin hopes congressional Republicans will take a populist/isolationist turn and refuse to extend military and economic aid to Ukraine.
This is one reason I think President Biden should celebrate the bravery of the Ukrainians and encourage Americans to feel threatened by Russia and proud of our support for Ukraine’s war effort.