(AP) — Russia’s top diplomat warned Ukraine against provoking World War III and said the threat of a nuclear conflict “should not be underestimated” as his country unleashed attacks against rail and fuel installations far from the front lines of Moscow’s new eastern offensive. …
“Russia is failing. Ukraine is succeeding,” U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken declared Monday after he and the U.S. secretary of defense made a bold visit to Kyiv to meet with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Blinken said Washington approved a $165 million sale of ammunition — non-U.S. ammo, mainly if not entirely for Ukraine’s Soviet-era weapons — and will also provide more than $300 million in financing to buy more supplies.
U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin went further, saying the U.S. wants to see Ukraine remain a sovereign, democratic country, but also wants “to see Russia weakened to the point where it can’t do things like invade Ukraine.”
Austin’s remarks appeared to represent a shift in U.S. strategic goals since earlier Washington said the goal of American military aid was to help Ukraine win and to defend Ukraine’s NATO neighbors against Russian threats.
In an apparent response to Austin, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Russia has “a feeling that the West wants Ukraine to continue to fight and, as it seems to them, wear out, exhaust the Russian army and the Russian military industrial war complex. This is an illusion.”
Weapons supplied by Western countries “will be a legitimate target,” said Lavrov, who accused Ukrainian leaders of provoking Russia by asking NATO to become involved in the conflict. NATO forces are “pouring oil on the fire,” Lavrov said, according to a transcript on the Russian Foreign Ministry’s website. …
In opening remarks to the Ukraine Defense Consultative Group meeting in Germany on Tuesday, Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III told a gathering of defense officials from more than 40 countries that he wanted them to leave with a common understanding of Ukraine’s immediate security requirements.
“We are going to keep moving heaven and earth so that we can meet them,” Mr. Austin said.
Speaking to his Ukrainian counterpart, Oleksiy Reznikov, Mr. Austin said: “We’re all here because of Ukraine’s courage, because of the innocent civilians who have been killed, and because of the suffering that your people still endure.”
The United States gathered allied nations in Germany to discuss accelerating the supply of weapons to help Ukraine fend off Russia’s offensive in the south and east. The meeting came days after Mr. Austin and Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken made a secretive visit to Kyiv, where they pledged more assistance in a meeting with President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine.
The meeting in Germany included representatives from Albania, Australia, Belgium, Britain, Bulgaria, Canada, Croatia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Israel, Italy, Kenya, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Montenegro, the Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Qatar, Romania, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain and Turkey, as well as NATO and the European Union. Officials from Germany, the United States and Ukraine sat at the head of the table.
The United States marshaled allies on Tuesday to pledge more military support to Ukraine, accelerating the drive to deter Russia’s offensive and degrade its war machine, as Moscow accused the West of pursuing a proxy war and ignoring the “considerable” risk that it could spiral into a nuclear conflict.
President Vladimir V. Putin has himself portrayed the Ukraine war as part of a broader struggle with the West, declaring when he launched the invasion in February that his bigger target was America’s “empire of lies.”
As the United States gathered military leaders from 40 countries in Germany, the U.N. secretary general was scheduled to meet with Mr. Putin in Moscow in an effort to broker a cease-fire. The Russian leader showed no sign of easing his assault, as missiles struck the southern city of Zaporizhzhia on Tuesday, a day after Russian missiles hit at least five rail stations in western and central Ukraine. …
Two years ago, the economists Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman published a statistic that you don’t normally see. It was the share of wealth owned by the richest 0.00001 percent of Americans.
That tiny slice represented only 18 households, Saez and Zucman estimated. Each one had an average net worth of about $66 billion in 2020. Together, the share of national wealth owned by the group had risen by a factor of nearly 10 since 1982.
This wealth conveys vast power on a small group of people. They can attempt to shape politics, as the Koch family has done. They can create a global charity, as Bill Gates and Melinda French Gates have done. They can buy a national media organization, as Jeff Bezos has done.
Or they can buy a social media network when its policies annoy them, as Elon Musk is in the process of doing.
Twitter announced yesterday that its board had accepted a $44 billion bid for the company from Musk, the chief executive of Tesla and SpaceX and currently the world’s richest man. He is using $21 billion of his own cash in the deal.
Musk, who calls himself a “free speech absolutist,” has suggested that he will be less aggressive than Twitter’s current management about blocking some content — including misinformation, in all likelihood. He plans to take the company private, which will give him tighter control than he would have over a public company.
The deal is the latest example of how extreme inequality is shaping American society. A small number of very wealthy people end up making decisions that affect millions of others. That has always been true, of course. But it is truer when inequality is so high. In the U.S. economy, wealth inequality has exceeded even the peaks of the 1920s, as another chart from Saez and Zucman’s research shows (graph at the link)
Share of wealth in the U.S. owned by the top 0.01% of households
(In 1929, the top 0.01% owned 10.4% of US wealth. In 1979, it was about 2%. In 2021, it’s 10.8%.)
The Musk deal also recalls the Gilded Age, as my colleague Shira Ovide wrote: “The closest comparison to this might be the 19th-century newspaper barons like William Randolph Hearst, Joseph Pulitzer and the fictional Charles Foster Kane, who used their papers to pursue their personal agendas, sensationalize world events and harass their enemies.” …
The Bank of Israel has added four new currencies, including the Chinese yuan, or renminbi, to its holdings for the first time in the country’s history,Bloomberg reported last week. The central bank will also trim US dollar and euro holdings in a bid to diversify its foreign reserves, the report said.
Israel’s foreign-currency reserves, which last year exceeded $200 billion for the first time, have traditionally been made up of dollars, euros and British pounds. Israel will now include Canadian dollars and Australian dollars in its foreign-currency reserves, as well as the Japanese yen and the Chinese renminbi.
The reshuffle was a change in Israel’s “whole investment guidelines and philosophy,” Bank of Israel Deputy Governor Andrew Abir said, adding that the rise in Israel’s foreign-exchange reserves forced the central bank to consider “the need to earn a return on the reserves that will cover the costs of liability.”
The central bank, which as recently as 2020 held 67.4% of its foreign exchange in US dollars, 30.1% in euros and 2.5% in British pounds, now plans to have the pound and yen account for 5% each. The yuan will account for 2% of its holdings, while the currencies of Canada and Australia will each be 3.5%.
Russian rouble hits near 2-year high vs euro – (Reuters) – The Russian rouble strengthened on Monday, firming past 77 against the euro to a near two-year high, helped by tax payments that companies are due to make this week and as the market looked ahead to a central bank rate decision on Friday. By 1453 GMT, the rouble had gained 3.6% to trade at 77.25 versus the euro , earlier clipping 76.96, its strongest mark since June 2020. The rouble was 3% stronger against the dollar at 73.17, hovering around levels seen before Feb. 24, when Russia sent tens of thousands of troops to Ukraine.
President Vladimir V. Putin’s demand on Wednesday (March 23) that “unfriendly countries” like the United States, Britain and the European Union members pay for Russian natural gas in rubles has raised questions as to whether such a move would lead to renegotiation of some contracts. …
… David L. Goldwyn, who served as a State Department special envoy on energy during the Obama administration, said, “The Russians are playing a bit of a game of chicken in order to force gas buyers to prop up the ruble.”
“Buyers could refuse, and the Russians would be forced to give up sales or accept payment in the currency provided by the contract,” he added. “But it’s a serious risk for the buyers as well to refuse.”
Russia said last week that it wants the European countries that buy its natural gas to make their payments in rubles, rather than dollars or euros. A month ago, that might have seemed like a pretty good deal: The ruble was down 40%, at 139 rubles to the dollar, in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Since that low point on March 7, however, the Russian ruble has staged a dramatic recovery. At the time of this writing, it was trading at 84 to the dollar, which is right back where it was at the time of the invasion. And this is no dead cat bounce. It’s a sharp and sustained recovery that made the ruble the world’s top-performing currency in March.
Yet all the sanctions imposed when the war began are still in place, and in some cases they’re even more robust. So how have the Russians managed to revive their currency?
The holes in the sanctions wall
This recovery has several components. The first is thanks to the enormous hole in the sanctions that were imposed by the coalition of countries allied with the U.S.: natural gas. The sanctions are designed to restrict Russia’s ability to acquire foreign currency — dollars and euros in particular. But several European countries continue to buy Russian gas because they have become so dependent on it and because there are not enough alternative suppliers to meet demand.
Add to that the increase in oil and natural gas prices, as well as the resilience of Russia’s trading relations with other big economies such as China and India, and the net result is that there is still a steady flow of foreign currency into Russia. This has eased concerns that Russia would become insolvent, and it has helped put a floor under the ruble.
Another hole in the sanctions is worth mentioning here: the sovereign debt carve-out. One of the biggest and most impactful sanctions on Russia was the freezing of its foreign accounts. Russia holds about $640 billion worth of euros, dollars, yen and other foreign currencies in banks around the world. About half that amount is located in the U.S. and Europe. The sanctions blocked Russia’s access to that money, except when it comes to making the interest payments on its sovereign debt. The U.S. Treasury left a window open to allow financial intermediaries to process payments for Russia. That window is scheduled to close this month, but it has been a big help to Russia. Without it, Russia might have needed to raise dollars by selling rubles, which would have put downward pressure on the currency. And had it not been able to raise those dollars, it would have defaulted. …
NY Times: The reverberations of the war in Ukraine widened on Wednesday, jolting energy markets and threatening to spill across borders, as the West’s escalating arms shipments and economic penalties prompted Russia to lash out by cutting off gas supplies to two European nations.
Russia’s state-run gas company, Gazprom, announced that it was suspending shipments of natural gas to Poland and Bulgaria, a move that the European Union’s top official denounced as “blackmail.” Though the immediate economic impact was likely to be limited, it was the Kremlin’s toughest retaliation yet against a U.S.-led alliance that it has accused of backing Ukraine in a proxy war aimed at weakening Russia.
Even as news of a U.S.-Russia prisoner exchange offered a glimmer of hope that tensions with the West could ease, President Vladimir V. Putin warned on Wednesday that he would unleash “counterstrikes” against any adversaries that “create threats of a strategic nature unacceptable to Russia.”
At the same time, a series of explosions across Ukraine’s borders raised the possibility that the war, now in its third month, might spread. Blasts were reported in three Russian border districts on Wednesday morning, and while the cause was not immediately known, suspicion fell on Ukrainian forces, which are being supplied with more sophisticated weapons and intelligence from the United States and its allies. …
Several countries have cut energy ties with Russia, while others are snapping up cheap supplies.
The US, UK, and some EU countries have all taken action.
India and China, however, continue to maintain their oil and gas trade with Russia.
… As sweeping sanctions hit Russia’s oil exports, prices shot down so much that some buyers from India and China were attracted to snapping up cheap Russian energy, Insider’s Huileng Tan reported.
Reuters reported that since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, India had bought at least 13 million barrels of Russian oil. It’s not stopping at cheap oil, however. Russian coal remains on India’s radar.
Ramchandra Prasad Singh, an Indian politician and member of parliament, said at a conference in New Delhi that India is “moving in the direction of importing coking coal from Russia,” per Reuters. He added that India had imported 4.5 million tonnes of Russian coal but he did not indicate over what time period.
As for China, the country is snapping up Russian oil and coal with its own currency. Smaller independent refiners in China are also still buying Russian oil discreetly, Reuters recently reported. …
Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February, former US President Bill Clinton said he has had a lot of sleepless nights thinking about his own decisions while in the White House.
“I do not believe that there was anything we could have done to prevent this,” Clinton said of the war while at a lecture at Brown University on Tuesday night. “Ukraine needs to prevail.”
Clinton said between 1943, when the Soviet Union was considered a US ally, through about 1991, there were 26 meetings between leaders in both countries. Clinton, as president in the 1990s, said he met with former Russian President Boris Yeltsin 18 times. And he met current Russian President Vladimir Putin five times, including when he was still prime minister.
“It is not true that we did isolate or humiliate Putin. That’s the biggest load of bull that you’ll ever hear,” he said. Clinton said he made the argument to Yeltsin that nothing was preventing them from also joining NATO, like neighboring countries eventually did shortly after Clinton left office. “I think Yeltsin, if he was well enough, would have considered it.” …
Russia was kicked out of the G-8 economic group in 2014
after invading Crimea. Trump tried to get them reinstated.
That didn’t happen. Was that humiliating?
Top Russian diplomat warns Ukraine against provoking WWIII
Boston Globe – April 26
Allies will ‘keep moving heaven and earth’ to supply Ukraine, the U.S. defense chief says
NY Times – April 26
In opening remarks to the Ukraine Defense Consultative Group meeting in Germany on Tuesday, Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III told a gathering of defense officials from more than 40 countries that he wanted them to leave with a common understanding of Ukraine’s immediate security requirements.
“We are going to keep moving heaven and earth so that we can meet them,” Mr. Austin said.
Speaking to his Ukrainian counterpart, Oleksiy Reznikov, Mr. Austin said: “We’re all here because of Ukraine’s courage, because of the innocent civilians who have been killed, and because of the suffering that your people still endure.”
The United States gathered allied nations in Germany to discuss accelerating the supply of weapons to help Ukraine fend off Russia’s offensive in the south and east. The meeting came days after Mr. Austin and Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken made a secretive visit to Kyiv, where they pledged more assistance in a meeting with President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine.
The meeting in Germany included representatives from Albania, Australia, Belgium, Britain, Bulgaria, Canada, Croatia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Israel, Italy, Kenya, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Montenegro, the Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Qatar, Romania, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain and Turkey, as well as NATO and the European Union. Officials from Germany, the United States and Ukraine sat at the head of the table.
the latest developments in the war in Ukraine
NY Times – April 26
The world’s richest person didn’t like Twitter. So he’s buying it.
NY Times – David Leonhardt – April 26
Share of wealth in the U.S. owned by the top 0.01% of households
using your reserve currency as a weapon has consequences
however, i didn’t expect to see this:
Russian rouble hits near 2-year high vs euro – (Reuters) – The Russian rouble strengthened on Monday, firming past 77 against the euro to a near two-year high, helped by tax payments that companies are due to make this week and as the market looked ahead to a central bank rate decision on Friday. By 1453 GMT, the rouble had gained 3.6% to trade at 77.25 versus the euro , earlier clipping 76.96, its strongest mark since June 2020. The rouble was 3% stronger against the dollar at 73.17, hovering around levels seen before Feb. 24, when Russia sent tens of thousands of troops to Ukraine.
How Putin’s Demand for Ruble Payments for Gas Could Play Out
NY Times – March 24
How Russia rescued the ruble
NPR – April 5
NY Times: The reverberations of the war in Ukraine widened on Wednesday, jolting energy markets and threatening to spill across borders, as the West’s escalating arms shipments and economic penalties prompted Russia to lash out by cutting off gas supplies to two European nations.
Russia’s state-run gas company, Gazprom, announced that it was suspending shipments of natural gas to Poland and Bulgaria, a move that the European Union’s top official denounced as “blackmail.” Though the immediate economic impact was likely to be limited, it was the Kremlin’s toughest retaliation yet against a U.S.-led alliance that it has accused of backing Ukraine in a proxy war aimed at weakening Russia.
Even as news of a U.S.-Russia prisoner exchange offered a glimmer of hope that tensions with the West could ease, President Vladimir V. Putin warned on Wednesday that he would unleash “counterstrikes” against any adversaries that “create threats of a strategic nature unacceptable to Russia.”
At the same time, a series of explosions across Ukraine’s borders raised the possibility that the war, now in its third month, might spread. Blasts were reported in three Russian border districts on Wednesday morning, and while the cause was not immediately known, suspicion fell on Ukrainian forces, which are being supplied with more sophisticated weapons and intelligence from the United States and its allies. …
reverberations of the war in Ukraine widened on Wednesday
Many nations are refusing to buy gas and oil from Russia but others continue to snap it up.
Business Insider – April 17
Bill Clinton: Putin’s invasion of Ukraine could not have been prevented
Boston Globe – April 26
Just to review…
Russia was kicked out of the G-8 economic group in 2014
after invading Crimea. Trump tried to get them reinstated.
That didn’t happen. Was that humiliating?
G7 leaders reject Russia’s return after Trump summit invite