A Russian oil and gas embargo is in the cards. And analysts warn it will have huge consequencesPublished Thu, Mar 3 20226:57 AM ESTUpdated Thu, Mar 3 20226:46 PM EST Key Points
Western sanctions imposed on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine have so far been carefully constructed to avoid directly hitting the country’s energy exports.
The U.S. has said that sanctions on Russia’s oil and gas flows are “certainly on the table,” but that going after exports now could be counterproductive in terms of raising global energy prices.
“If Russia continues to wage this war … it is only a matter of time before we’re talking about full secondary sanctions on energy exports,” Helima Croft, head of global commodities strategy at RBC, said.
It may only be a matter of time before the U.S. and Western allies impose full sanctions on Russia’s energy exports, analysts say, warning that such a move would have seismic repercussions for oil and gas markets and the world economy.
It comes as Russia’s onslaught on key Ukrainian cities enters its second week, with fighting raging in the north, east and south of the country.
Western sanctions imposed on Russia over the invasion have so far been carefully constructed to avoid directly hitting the country’s energy exports, although there are already signs the measures are inadvertently prompting banks and traders to shun Russian crude.
The U.S. has said that sanctions on Russia’s oil and gas flows are “certainly on the table,” but that going after exports now could be counterproductive in terms of raising global energy prices.
Nonetheless, there have been calls for Western governments to ratchet up measures targeting Russia’s economy and Ukraine Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba has called on foreign governments to impose a “full embargo” on Russian oil and gas.
John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital, said the market is already starting to believe that Russia’s oil exports will be sanctioned…
Job growth accelerated last month, as falling coronavirus cases brought customers back to businesses and workers back to the office.
U.S. employers added 678,000 jobs in February, the Labor Department said Friday. The gain topped economists’ forecasts for a second straight month, after employers in January shrugged off a spike in coronavirus cases and kept hiring workers. The unemployment rate in February fell to 3.8 percent.
The data was collected in mid-February, before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which roiled global financial markets and caused a sharp increase in energy prices. Analysts say the United States is less vulnerable than Europe to the economic effects of the crisis, but warn that a prolonged conflict will have global repercussions that are hard to predict. …
… But so far, at least, the labor market recovery has overcome every obstacle. Job openings are near a record high. Layoffs are at an all-time low. And hiring has remained strong in the ebb and flow of successive waves of the pandemic — employers have added at least 400,000 jobs every month since May, the longest such streak on record.
There are roughly 2 million fewer jobs now than before the pandemic.
(graph at link)
The U.S. economy still has hundreds of thousands fewer jobs than before the mass layoffs that began two years ago this month, and some workers remain sidelined by health concerns, child care problems or other factors.
But strong hiring in February, combined with the steady decline in new coronavirus cases, has made some forecasters optimistic that the economy is on a path back to something resembling normal. States have lifted mask mandates, and companies are again trying to attract workers back to the office. That could bring economic dividends, as workers return to central business districts. …
Still, many companies continue to report trouble attracting workers — a challenge that may become even more difficult if those workers are expected to show up in person, something surveys show many are reluctant to do. The competition for labor has pushed up wages — good news for employees, but a concern for policymakers at the Federal Reserve, who are already worried about rapid inflation.
Senior White House officials designing the strategy to confront Russia have begun quietly debating a new concern: that the avalanche of sanctions directed at Moscow is cornering President Vladimir V. Putin and may prompt him to lash out, perhaps expanding the conflict beyond Ukraine.
Mr. Putin’s tendency, American intelligence officials have told the White House and Congress, is to double down when he feels trapped by his own overreach. So they have described a series of possible reactions, ranging from indiscriminate shelling of Ukrainian cities to compensate for the early mistakes made by his invading force, to cyberattacks directed at the American financial system, to more nuclear threats and perhaps moves to take the war beyond Ukraine’s borders. …
Surprised by the speed at which sanctions have been poured on Russia, Biden’s top aides suspect that Putin’s reaction will be to double down and lash out — and perhaps expand the war. …
… Mr. Putin’s reaction to the initial wave of sanctions has provoked a range of concerns that one senior official called the “Cornered Putin Problem.” Those concerns center on a series of recent announcements: the pullout of oil companies like Exxon and Shell from developing Russia’s oil fields, the moves against Russia’s central bank that sent the ruble plunging, and Germany’s surprise announcement that it would drop its ban on sending lethal weapons to the Ukrainian forces and ramp up its defense spending.
But beyond canceling the missile test, there is no evidence that the United States is considering steps to reduce tensions, and a senior official said there was no interest in backing off sanctions. …
Millions of times a day, far-flung exchanges of money and goods crisscross land borders and oceans, creating enormous wealth, however unequally distributed. But those connections have also exposed economies to financial upheaval and crippling shortages when the flows are interrupted.
The snarled supply lines and shortfalls caused by the pandemic created a wide awareness of these vulnerabilities. Now, the invasion has delivered a bracing new spur to governments in Europe and elsewhere to reassess how to balance the desire for efficiency and growth with the need for self-sufficiency and national security.
And it is calling into question a tenet of liberal capitalism — that shared economic interests help prevent military conflicts. …
It is an idea that stretches back over the centuries and has been endorsed by romantic idealists and steely realists. The philosophers John Stuart Mill and Immanuel Kant wrote about it in treatises. The British politicians Richard Cobden and John Bright invoked it in the 19th century to repeal the protectionist Corn Laws, the tariffs and restrictions imposed on imported grains that shielded landowners from competition and stifled free trade.
Later, Norman Angell was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for writing that world leaders were under “A Great Illusion” that armed conflict and conquest would bring greater wealth. During the Cold War, it was an element of the rationale for détente with the Soviet Union — to, as Henry Kissinger said, “create links that will provide incentive for moderation.” …
… The reality is economic interdependence can breed insecurity as well as mutual benefits, particularly when the relationship is lopsided.
Philippe Martin, the dean of the School of Public Affairs at SciencesPo in Paris, said that the 2014 agreement between Ukraine and the European Union may have marked a turning point for Russia. “That translated into more trade with the E.U. and less with Russa,” he said.
Mr. Martin has written skeptically that economic ties promote peace, arguing that countries open to global trade can be less worried about picking a fight with a single nation because they have diverse trading partners.
In the case of Russia’s march toward Kyiv, though, he offered two possible explanations. One is that no one — including the European leaders who imposed them — expected such crippling sanctions.
“I think that Putin miscalculated and was surprised by the harshness of the sanctions,” Mr. Martin said. “The second interpretation is that Putin does not care” about the impact that sanctions are having on the welfare of most Russians.
Which does he think is correct? “I think both interpretations are valid,” he said.
Would it be a good idea — safe or crazy — for the Ukrainian air force to fly from NATO bases? Nobody should be able to object to them flying in NATO air space — or their own — in theory. Wonder how the Russians would take it — what would they say? Most likely the worst extreme.
Mmmm. We could give them jet fighters and anti-tank helicopters to replace their losses. Intriguing thoughts but probably very dangerous. Be interesting for NATO to just talk them up to catch the Russki reaction.
you sound like you are depending on some universal code of justice..that nobody can complain about. you seem to be forgetting that by anything that looks like a universal standard of justice, Putin is a criminal who has violated that code. so we stand around striving to achieve a level of justice that Putin will not complain about. while he eats Ukraine and looks after Poland with lust in his heart.
justice is nice if you can get it (well, not always so nice. mercy is better.) but when you can’t get it, retribution is the universal standard…. if you can get it.
me, i like preventive show of force. takes some judgement to manage.
we (“USA! USA! USA!”) lost our sense of justice when we went into Vietnam…and then Grenada, Panama, 2nd Iraq (if not the 1st Iraq) Afghanistan… oh, and the Philippines, but that was so long ago no one remembers. And Mexico, which only A.Lincoln objected to, and it cost him his seat.
Biden apparently lightened the mood in his talk with Pres of Finland by saying Obama said we would all be better if we were governed like the Nordic countries. To which Pres.Finland said, “well, we usually don’t start wars,” As far as I have been able to tell, no one caught the irony.
even now we still have the power to stop the invasion in it’s tracks..without “threatening” Russia. of course, in Putin’s mind everything “threatens” Russia.
But, absent saner results from the policy of gradually intensifying sanctions, we seem to have the choice of risking Putin’s nukes now, or facing them tomorrow..or just giving ground every time he, or China, threatens us.
Ron (RC) Weakley (A.K.A., Darryl For A While At EV) says:
I.e., the December 7, 1941 attack on Pearl Harbor by Japanese aircraft? Putin probably knows 20th century world history well enough to have calculated our most likely response to his invasion of Ukraine.
I know about the Dec 7 attack on Pearl Harbor, which incidentally was an attack on American soil that killed Americans and destroyed American military hardware. Putin might have had to stretch that into an understanding of how we would respond to his attack on Ukraine, which in some perverted way he considers Russian soil and no business of America, except to the extend that America has empire intentions against Russian.
I am close enough to “the greatest generation” [though Tom Paine and Geo Washington and John Adams and Tom Jefferson might have a different view of that. Not to say A. Lincoln and those brave men, living and dead ..]
I am close enough to those who fought in WW2 to think even they might think that the Great Depression might have had some influence on what they tried to achieve after they came home from the war.
Ron (RC) Weakley (A.K.A., Darryl For A While At EV) says:
Dude, I was referring to our lack of response to the antics of the Nazi war machine. WWII had been ongoing in Europe for over two years by the time that Japan screwed the pooch and prodded the US to get off the bench. WWII actually had begun over 4 years earlier with attacks by Japan against China, but China was less a matter of US interest than England, France, Poland, and such.
True. Some of the elites, notably Henry Ford, were fond of Hitler and his Nazis. Ordinary Joe does not the country behind him so much either, much less so if he decided to take the US to war with Russia.
Putin may not be crazy, we just have to believe he is, and do what he wishes.
After all, as I opined earlier, Ukraine, being situated where it is right next to the big Angry Bear, has no particular reason to think things would have turned out differently for them.
Y’know, NATO attempting to establish a No-Fly Zone over Ukraine would male Putin very, very angry and probably lead to him doing the same over Western Europe.
every now and then i run into one of these posts like the one below wherein someone with minimal English skills tries to plagiarize a major media site like Reuters by changing key words to some near-equivalent, apparently picked out of a thesaurus-like list of synonyms…sometimes the results are pretty funny…see if you can guess what the original post said…
Investing.com — Indecent prices posted double-digit weekly positive aspects and closed at their most reasonable likely in as a minimal nine years after the White Home said it used to be brooding about a ban on Russian oil imports, adding to the worries of a market already overvalued about sanctions on one of many area’s greatest energy exporters.
The escalating war in Ukraine and the West’s retaliation with extra monetary punishments on Moscow additional fueled Friday’s low. One other catalyst used to be Saudi Arabia’s announcement of a file hike in the selling put for its low.
U.S. low’s West Texas Intermediate, or WTI, benchmark settled up $8.01, or 7.4%, at $115.68 a barrel, its most reasonable likely terminate since 2008.
For the week, U.S. low used to be up about 26%, its greatest weekly assemble since March 2020. World oil benchmark Brent used to be up $7.65, or 6.9%, at $118.11 a barrel. For the week, Brent rose 21% for its greatest weekly assemble since April 2020. WTI has risen some 54% for the reason that year began and Brent about 52%. Indecent’s rally observed a dramatic surge this week on worries that a litany of sanctions against Russia for its invasion of Ukraine would severely affect energy exports from Moscow, which presents some 10% of the area’s oil wants and 40% of Europe’s gasoline requirements. The White Home said on Friday it used to be brooding about banning Russian oil imports so to add to the area community’s isolation of Moscow over the war in Ukraine. No dedication has been made on the matter, it, however, said.
Biden administration officers bag said over the last week that they did not want to behave rashly and ban oil Russian exports, which would possibly maybe well maybe dramatically elevate energy prices for People already paying basically the most for gas for the reason that 2008 monetary disaster.
Saudi Arabia’s dispute-owned oil company Aramco (SE: 2222), in the period in-between, launched the qualified hike ever in the mighty selling put, or OSP, to Asia, elevating the pinnacle charge for a barrel of Arab gentle low intended for April supply by $4.95 versus the Oman/Dubai practical which it makes spend of as its horrible.
Aramco said its April Arab gentle low oil OSP to the US would crawl up by $3.45.
The bottom elevate used to be for North West Europe, the put the pinnacle charge for April Arab gentle low rose by $1.60 versus Brent, which hovered at $114 a barrel.
“Here’s what you name naked exploitation,” John Kilduff, accomplice at Unusual York energy hedge Again Capital, said, relating to Aramco’s file put hike. “We perceive it’s trade. But at a time when the area is in a dire emergency over the Russia-Ukraine disaster and the need for inexpensive and better oil presents is extra than ever, all of us know we are able to rely on the Saudis to throttle our necks extra than ever.”
All across the country, small groups of military veterans are hungry for what they see as a righteous fight to defend freedom against an autocratic aggressor.
… a surge of American veterans … say they are now preparing to join the fight in Ukraine, emboldened by the invitation of the country’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, who earlier this week announced he was creating an “international legion” and asked volunteers from around the world to help defend his nation against Russia. …
… All across the United States, small groups of military veterans are gathering, planning and getting passports in order. After years of serving in smoldering occupations, trying to spread democracy in places that had only a tepid interest in it, many are hungry for what they see as a righteous fight to defend freedom against an autocratic aggressor with a conventional and target-rich army. …
My first US Army MOS was ’11B’ (combat infantryman), but I am really old now, those skills were never tested (although I was an ‘expert’ at grenade tossing), so I think I’ll have to pass.)
(AP) — What looked like a breakthrough cease-fire to evacuate residents from two cities in Ukraine quickly fell apart Saturday as Ukrainian officials said shelling had halted the work to remove civilians hours after Russia announced the deal.
The Russian defense ministry earlier said it had agreed on evacuation routes with Ukrainian forces for Mariupol, a strategic port in the southeast, and the eastern city of Volnovakha. The vaguely worded statement did not make clear how long the routes would remain open.
“The Russian side is not holding to the cease-fire and has continued firing on Mariupol itself and on its surrounding area,” said Kyrylo Tymoshenko, the deputy head of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s office. “Talks with the Russian Federation are ongoing regarding setting up a cease-fire and ensuring a safe humanitarian corridor.” …
President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia on Saturday upped his rhetoric by describing the Western sanctions imposed against Russia since his military invasion of Ukraine as “akin to a declaration of war,” and warning that Ukraine might lose its statehood if its leaders continued to resist his military invasion of the country.
“The current leadership needs to understand that if they continue doing what they are doing, they risk the future of Ukrainian statehood,” he said at a meeting in Moscow on Saturday, in his first extended remarks since the start of the war. “If that happens,” he said, “they will have to be blamed for that.” …
(Maybe the rest of the world needs to worry somewhat more about the first part of the ‘upped rhetoric’.)
(Putin) made the comments during a meeting with female flight attendants from Russian airlines before International Women’s Day, which will be marked on Tuesday. Mr. Putin has often used such choreographed events to make high-profile statements.
In the remarks, Mr. Putin appeared to outline his military tactics, while threatening that any no-fly zone, as Ukrainian officials have called for in recent days, would have devastating consequences.
“Warehouses with weapons and ammunition, aviation, air defense systems — it takes time to destroy air defense systems,” the Russian leader said. “This work is practically done — that’s why there are demands to impose a no-fly zone. The realization of that demand would bring catastrophic results not only to Europe, but to the whole world.”
NATO leaders have resisted the calls for a no-fly zone, worried that implementing one could lead to a larger war.
Indeed, Mr. Putin suggested that such a measure could broaden the conflict. …
Assassins have tried to kill Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky at least three times since Russia invaded his country last week, a new report said.
The assassination plots were foiled when anti-war Russians fed intel to Ukraine about two separate mercenary groups that planned to launch the attacks, the Times of London reported.
“I can say that we have received information from [Russia’s Federal Security Service], who do not want to take part in this bloody war,” Ukraine’s secretary of national security and defense told local TV stations, according to the Times. …
“We usually don’t start wars,” President Sauli Niinisto of Finland said as the leaders spoke amid the war in Ukraine.
When President Biden met in the Oval Office on Friday afternoon with Sauli Niinisto, the president of the non-NATO member and increasingly nervous Finland, Mr. Biden tried to put his guest at ease with a little banter recalling something that Barack Obama once said.
“President Obama used to say, ‘We’d be all right if we left everything to the Nordic countries,’” Mr. Biden recalled. “Everything would be fine.”
Mr. Niinisto nodded, and replied, “Well, we usually don’t start wars.”
It was an exchange that captured how diplomacy has changed in the past nine days, since the Russian invasion of Ukraine rocked the way Europeans talked about Russia. Before that, President Vladimir V. Putin’s Russia was an unpredictable force to be managed, especially for a nation like Finland, which was ruled by Russia for most of the 19th century, until the Russian Revolution in 1917.
(Finland) is rethinking its relationship with Washington, NATO and the West. Its streets are a mix of Nordic and European cultures, its politics decidedly tilted to the West. It trains its troops with NATO, it strategizes with NATO, but it is not a member of NATO, a remnant of its old status as a neutral state during the Cold War. …
The multinational response shows that liberalism has some life left. But the challenges posed by waning U.S. power and rising authoritarianism remain formidable.
The liberal world order has been on life support for a while. President Biden, in his inaugural address, called democracy “fragile.” President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia said two years ago that “the liberal idea” had “outlived its purpose,” while China’s leader, Xi Jinping, has extolled the strength of an all-powerful state and, as he put it last March, “self-confidence in our system.”
The multinational response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shown that the demise of the global postwar rules-based order may not be inevitable. A month ago, no one predicted that Germany would reverse decades of military hesitancy and pour 100 billion euros into its defense budget, or that Switzerland would freeze the assets of Russian oligarchs, or that YouTube, World Cup soccer and global energy companies would all cut ties to Russia.
But the reappearance of war in Europe is also an omen. With toddlers sheltering in subway tunnels, and nuclear power plants under threat, it is a global air raid siren — a warning that the American-led system of internationalism needs to get itself back into gear, for the war at hand and for the struggle against authoritarianism to come. …
Zeno’s Paradox, as I have asserted, seems bogus. (It cannot be a valid problem to reach a destination always travelling ‘half the distance’ between two points, because to do so implies you know what that distance is and have therefore already been there.)
Putin’s Paradox seems real enough however. A country situated next to a ‘major power’ has a relatively short ‘half-life’ (or will at least always be ‘unstable’) for obvious reasons, if that major power wants to assert itself. And then, the ‘Who’s next?’ rule will apply.
The US is actually a pretty good example of this, with respect to Mexico if not Canada.
(AP) — Russian President Vladimir Putin warned Saturday that Ukrainian statehood is in jeopardy and likened the West’s sanctions on Russia to “declaring war,” while a promised cease-fire in the besieged port city of Mariupol collapsed amid scenes of terror.
With the Kremlin’s rhetoric growing fiercer and a reprieve from fighting dissolving, Russian troops continued to shell encircled cities and the number of Ukrainians forced from their country grew to 1.4 million. By nighttime Russian forces had intensified their shelling of Mariupol, while dropping powerful bombs on residential areas of Chernihiv, a city north of Kyiv, Ukrainian officials said. …
Putin continued to pin the blame for the war squarely on the Ukrainian leadership and slammed their resistance to the invasion.
“If they continue to do what they are doing, they are calling into question the future of Ukrainian statehood,” he said. “And if this happens, it will be entirely on their conscience.”
He also hit out at Western sanctions that have crippled Russia’s economy and sent the value of its currency tumbling.
“These sanctions that are being imposed, they are akin to declaring war,” he said during a televised meeting with flight attendants from Russian airline Aeroflot. “But thank God, we haven’t got there yet.” …
As the Russian invasion picked up speed on Feb. 24, the attacking troops inched closer to the southern Ukrainian province of Kherson, announcing their approach with a column of tanks. Vitaly Skakun, an engineer in a Ukrainian battalion, knew the situation was dire.
To stop the offensive, Ukrainian planners opted to blow up the Henichesk road bridge, which Russian tanks would have to cross to move further into Kherson. Skakun volunteered for the job. He ventured out to the bridge and set mines on its span, knowing they’d likely detonate before he could escape. Explosions rang out moments later, confirming the worst. “A brother of ours was killed,” read the Armed Forces of Ukraine statement about Skakun. “His heroic deed significantly slowed the enemy’s advance.”
… Less heralded are the hundreds of “ordinary heroes” like Skakun, putting themselves on the line for a larger cause. The nameless woman in Kherson who, unarmed, directly confronted the Russian invaders and the havoc they’d come to wreak. The 13 Ukrainian guards on Snake Island who, given the chance to save themselves by surrendering to Russia, retorted, “Russian warship, go f— yourself!” (Reports a few days later indicated, happily, that the guards were still alive.)
Ordinary heroes aren’t on just one side of the border, either. According to some reports, Russian troops were refusing to take part in combat in Ukraine, though they knew this decision could prove lethal under Vladimir Putin’s regime. Likewise, thousands of Russians protested the war in Moscow and St. Petersburg, steps from phalanxes of riot police who could have taken them out at any time. …
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/03/russia-oil-and-gas-analysts-fear-the-west-may-soon-hit-energy-exports.html
A Russian oil and gas embargo is in the cards. And analysts warn it will have huge consequencesPublished Thu, Mar 3 20226:57 AM ESTUpdated Thu, Mar 3 20226:46 PM EST Key Points
It may only be a matter of time before the U.S. and Western allies impose full sanctions on Russia’s energy exports, analysts say, warning that such a move would have seismic repercussions for oil and gas markets and the world economy.
It comes as Russia’s onslaught on key Ukrainian cities enters its second week, with fighting raging in the north, east and south of the country.
Western sanctions imposed on Russia over the invasion have so far been carefully constructed to avoid directly hitting the country’s energy exports, although there are already signs the measures are inadvertently prompting banks and traders to shun Russian crude.
Russia is the world’s third-largest oil producer, behind the U.S. and Saudi Arabia, and the world’s largest exporter of crude to global markets. It is also a major producer and exporter of natural gas.
The U.S. has said that sanctions on Russia’s oil and gas flows are “certainly on the table,” but that going after exports now could be counterproductive in terms of raising global energy prices.
Nonetheless, there have been calls for Western governments to ratchet up measures targeting Russia’s economy and Ukraine Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba has called on foreign governments to impose a “full embargo” on Russian oil and gas.
John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital, said the market is already starting to believe that Russia’s oil exports will be sanctioned…
{ continued at above link }
February’s jobs report shows a gain of 678,000
NY Times – March 4
Why Washington is worried about cornering Putin.
NY Times – March 4
Washington’s Newest Worry: The Dangers of Cornering Putin
Economic Ties Among Nations Spur Peace. Or Do They?
NY Times – March 4
Would it be a good idea — safe or crazy — for the Ukrainian air force to fly from NATO bases? Nobody should be able to object to them flying in NATO air space — or their own — in theory. Wonder how the Russians would take it — what would they say? Most likely the worst extreme.
Mmmm. We could give them jet fighters and anti-tank helicopters to replace their losses. Intriguing thoughts but probably very dangerous. Be interesting for NATO to just talk them up to catch the Russki reaction.
Denis
you sound like you are depending on some universal code of justice..that nobody can complain about. you seem to be forgetting that by anything that looks like a universal standard of justice, Putin is a criminal who has violated that code. so we stand around striving to achieve a level of justice that Putin will not complain about. while he eats Ukraine and looks after Poland with lust in his heart.
justice is nice if you can get it (well, not always so nice. mercy is better.) but when you can’t get it, retribution is the universal standard…. if you can get it.
me, i like preventive show of force. takes some judgement to manage.
we (“USA! USA! USA!”) lost our sense of justice when we went into Vietnam…and then Grenada, Panama, 2nd Iraq (if not the 1st Iraq) Afghanistan… oh, and the Philippines, but that was so long ago no one remembers. And Mexico, which only A.Lincoln objected to, and it cost him his seat.
Biden apparently lightened the mood in his talk with Pres of Finland by saying Obama said we would all be better if we were governed like the Nordic countries. To which Pres.Finland said, “well, we usually don’t start wars,” As far as I have been able to tell, no one caught the irony.
Denis
even now we still have the power to stop the invasion in it’s tracks..without “threatening” Russia. of course, in Putin’s mind everything “threatens” Russia.
But, absent saner results from the policy of gradually intensifying sanctions, we seem to have the choice of risking Putin’s nukes now, or facing them tomorrow..or just giving ground every time he, or China, threatens us.
Coberly,
How great would the Greatest Generation have been without Pearl Harbor?
I.e., the December 7, 1941 attack on Pearl Harbor by Japanese aircraft? Putin probably knows 20th century world history well enough to have calculated our most likely response to his invasion of Ukraine.
Ron
I know about the Dec 7 attack on Pearl Harbor, which incidentally was an attack on American soil that killed Americans and destroyed American military hardware. Putin might have had to stretch that into an understanding of how we would respond to his attack on Ukraine, which in some perverted way he considers Russian soil and no business of America, except to the extend that America has empire intentions against Russian.
I am close enough to “the greatest generation” [though Tom Paine and Geo Washington and John Adams and Tom Jefferson might have a different view of that. Not to say A. Lincoln and those brave men, living and dead ..]
I am close enough to those who fought in WW2 to think even they might think that the Great Depression might have had some influence on what they tried to achieve after they came home from the war.
Coberly,
Dude, I was referring to our lack of response to the antics of the Nazi war machine. WWII had been ongoing in Europe for over two years by the time that Japan screwed the pooch and prodded the US to get off the bench. WWII actually had begun over 4 years earlier with attacks by Japan against China, but China was less a matter of US interest than England, France, Poland, and such.
Ron
I am glad you cleared that up. It my be worth pointing out that back then we did not have the power we have today, or the experience.
Rumor has it that FDR understood the danger but did not have the country behind him.
Coberly,
True. Some of the elites, notably Henry Ford, were fond of Hitler and his Nazis. Ordinary Joe does not the country behind him so much either, much less so if he decided to take the US to war with Russia.
Putin may not be crazy, we just have to believe he is, and do what he wishes.
After all, as I opined earlier, Ukraine, being situated where it is right next to the big Angry Bear, has no particular reason to think things would have turned out differently for them.
Y’know, NATO attempting to establish a No-Fly Zone over Ukraine would male Putin very, very angry and probably lead to him doing the same over Western Europe.
no doubt he would if he only could.
let him get away with a few more bluffs and he will.
every now and then i run into one of these posts like the one below wherein someone with minimal English skills tries to plagiarize a major media site like Reuters by changing key words to some near-equivalent, apparently picked out of a thesaurus-like list of synonyms…sometimes the results are pretty funny…see if you can guess what the original post said…
American Veterans Join the Fight in Ukraine
NY Times – March 5
My first US Army MOS was ’11B’ (combat infantryman), but I am really old now, those skills were never tested (although I was an ‘expert’ at grenade tossing), so I think I’ll have to pass.)
Evacuations halted in cities where cease-fire pledged, with Russian forces accused of shelling
Boston Globe – March 5
(AP) — What looked like a breakthrough cease-fire to evacuate residents from two cities in Ukraine quickly fell apart Saturday as Ukrainian officials said shelling had halted the work to remove civilians hours after Russia announced the deal.
The Russian defense ministry earlier said it had agreed on evacuation routes with Ukrainian forces for Mariupol, a strategic port in the southeast, and the eastern city of Volnovakha. The vaguely worded statement did not make clear how long the routes would remain open.
“The Russian side is not holding to the cease-fire and has continued firing on Mariupol itself and on its surrounding area,” said Kyrylo Tymoshenko, the deputy head of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s office. “Talks with the Russian Federation are ongoing regarding setting up a cease-fire and ensuring a safe humanitarian corridor.” …
(Well, duh!)
Putin warns that leaders resisting the invasion ‘risk the future of Ukrainian statehood.’
NY Times – March 5
(Maybe the rest of the world needs to worry somewhat more about the first part of the ‘upped rhetoric’.)
Related?
Zelensky survives three assassination attempts in three days
NY Post – March 3
Finland, Non-NATO and Nervous, Discusses Defense With Biden
NY Times – March 4
The War in Ukraine Holds a Warning for the World Order
NY Times – March 4
Zeno’s Paradox, as I have asserted, seems bogus. (It cannot be a valid problem to reach a destination always travelling ‘half the distance’ between two points, because to do so implies you know what that distance is and have therefore already been there.)
Putin’s Paradox seems real enough however. A country situated next to a ‘major power’ has a relatively short ‘half-life’ (or will at least always be ‘unstable’) for obvious reasons, if that major power wants to assert itself. And then, the ‘Who’s next?’ rule will apply.
The US is actually a pretty good example of this, with respect to Mexico if not Canada.
Putin says Ukraine’s future in doubt as cease-fires collapse
Boston Globe – March 6
The heroes without capes in Ukraine
Boston Globe – March 2