we started today with markets down globally, Dow down a thousand at one point, and travel restrictions being put in place in Europe and Asia…not an expert on the virus, i went to MSM for a few quick takes on the new variant:
A new Covid-19 variant could show immune evasion and enhanced transmissibility, South African scientists warn – CNN – South Africa’s health minister announced Thursday the discovery of a new coronavirus variant that appears to be spreading rapidly in parts of the country. “Initially it looked like some cluster outbreaks, but from yesterday, the indication came from our scientists from the Network of Genomic Surveillance that they were observing a new variant,” Minister of Health Joe Phaahla said, stressing that it is currently unclear where the variant — currently dubbed B.1.1.529 — first emerged. It has so far been detected in South Africa, Botswana and in a traveler to Hong Kong from South Africa, Phaahla added. Reinfection from Covid-19 is rare, severe disease is even rarer, a study of people in Qatar finds Reinfection from Covid-19 is rare, severe disease is even rarer, a study of people in Qatar finds During a news briefing, genomic scientists said the variant has an unusually high number of mutations, with more than 30 in the key spike protein — the structure the virus uses to get into the cells they attack. Professor Tulio de Oliveira, the director of the Center for Epidemic Response and Innovation, said the variant has “many more mutations than we have expected,” adding it is “spreading very fast and we expect to see pressure in the health system in the next few days and weeks.” He advised the public to “try to avoid super spreading events.” Officials also expressed concern that the mutation could result in immune evasion and enhanced transmissibility of the virus, but added it is too early to tell what kind of impact the mutations will have on vaccine efficacy. More studies also need to be conducted to understand the clinical severity of the variant compared to previous variants, officials said. “The full significance of this variant remains uncertain and the best tool we have is still the vaccines,” De Oliveira said. He added that lab studies still need to be carried out to test vaccine and antibody evasion.
What scientists know about the new variant, B.1.1.529. – NYT – Scientists are still unclear on how effective vaccines will be against the new variant flagged by a team in South Africa, which displays mutations that might resist neutralization. Only several dozen cases have been fully identified so far in South Africa, Botswana, Hong Kong and Israel.The new variant, B.1.1.529, has a “very unusual constellation of mutations,” with more than 30 in the spike protein alone, according to Tulio de Oliveira, director of the KwaZulu-Natal Research and Innovation Sequencing Platform.On the ACE2 receptor — the protein that helps to create an entry point for the coronavirus to infect human cells — the new variant has 10 mutations. In comparison, the Beta variant has three and the Delta variant two, Mr. de Oliveira said.The variant shares similarities with the Lambda and Beta variants, which are associated with an innate evasion of immunity, said Richard Lessells, an infectious diseases specialist at the KwaZulu-Natal Research and Innovation Sequencing Platform.“All these things are what give us some concern that this variant might have not just enhanced transmissibility, so spread more efficiently, but might also be able to get around parts of the immune system and the protection we have in our immune system,” Dr. Lessells said.The new variant has largely been detected among young people, the cohort that also has the lowest vaccination rate in South Africa. Just over a quarter of those ages between 18 and 34 in South Africa are vaccinated, said Dr. Joe Phaahla, the country’s minister of health. While cases of the variant are mainly concentrated in the country’s economic hub, particularly in the country’s administrative capital, Pretoria, it is “only a matter of time” before the virus spreads across the country as schools close and families prepare to travel for the holiday season, Dr. Phaahla said.
NYT: Stocks around the world tumbled on Friday, with the S&P 500 logging its worst day since February, and oil prices plunged, after evidence of a new coronavirus variant in South Africa prompted some countries to reinstate travel restrictions and reignited concerns about the economic toll imposed by the pandemic.
The number of mutations in this new variant has raised fears that it could be especially contagious and render current vaccines less effective. But scientists haven’t come to firm conclusions yet. …
The S&P 500 closed 2.3 percent lower and the Nasdaq composite index dropped 2.2 percent. European stock markets fell 3 to 5 percent. …
This variant has the potential to be DEFCON Level-1 bad. It is so different from current variants that calling it a variant is a misnomer; it is more likely to be another strain and could even be SARS-Cov-3. Unlike the press, the experts on GitHub were discussing the implications in the summary statement, which remains unchanged:
As I asked GM:
I assume if it probably escapes monoclonal antibodies, it probably escapes vaccines too.
His response:
We don’t have direct studies on this variant, but based on the sequence, this is completely resistant to all monoclonals, and there is little doubt about it. So this is a kiss-the-vaccine-goodbye strain, that is correct.
My next question: And am I correct in further assuming that its pretty fast emergence suggests it is competing effectively with and potentially out competing current variants?
This we do not know yet, but there is a worse possibility — that there will be no competition. This is just so antigenically distinct, that it may just as well circulate as its own separate strain that does not compete directly with Delta because there is no cross-neutralization and thus people infected with one are very soon after susceptible to infection from the other (just as COVID does not protect you from infection with OC43/229E/NL-63/229E and vice versa).
Consider GM’s cheery advice (emphasis his):
Consider yourself fully unvaccinated from now on and go back to March 2020 precautions.
Joe Biden Urgently Needs a Chief Brand Strategist. I have posted here before on my concerns about Democratic messaging. With less than a year to go and all odds are against Democrats holding the House. The Senate will likely remain very close or swing Republican. November 2022 is the drop dead deadline for Democracy in the U.S.A. If Democrats can’t hold control, it’s over folks and there is a lot of work to be done. Here are some excerpts from a great post on Born To Run The Numbers (BTRTN).
. . .right now, even after passing the original $1.9 trillion Coronavirus relief bill and now the $1.2 trillion “hard” infrastructure bill, the Democratic brand in the United States still somehow seems to stand for infighting, bickering, intransigence, and the self-involvement of lawmakers.
In corporate America, they’d call it a branding problem. . . Nobody is saying that Joe Biden has had a flawless first year as President, but the Coronavirus relief bill, the “hard” infrastructure bill alone are huge achievements, and the passage of yet a third epic “soft” infrastructure bill would rank the Biden administration as among the most activist Democratic administrations in history. Add in steady progress on the battle against Covid 19 in the face of the Delta variant and anti-vaxxer ignorance, and you have a powerful story to tell.
Don’t get me wrong: plenty of Democratic office holders are giving a great deal of thought to how to actually improve the lives of ordinary Americans. It’s just that no one appears to be giving much thought to making sure those ordinary Americans understand what’s being done.
No one is providing aggressive, coherent, continuous messaging to help shape public opinion. In the absence of a thoughtful, concerted, and consistent communication about the Biden administration brand, the narrative of Joe Biden’s presidency is being shaped by others… pundits, Fox News, and even snarky CNN reporters who make a big show of critiquing Biden in order to prove just how objective they are.
And for lack of someone focused on the business of managing the health of the Biden brand, the Biden administration is being rewarded with a crappy job approval rating.
A convenience store clerk in Taoyuan was yesterday allegedly stabbed to death by a customer after asking the customer to wear a mask.
The incident occurred a little after 5am at a store on Guangfong Street in Gueishan District (龜山), police said.
When the suspect, surnamed Chiang (蔣), 41, entered the store without wearing a mask, the 30-year-old clerk, surnamed Tsai (蔡), asked that he put one on, police said.
Chiang exited the store and came back wearing a mask, they said, adding that after paying for his items he took it off and threw it at Tsai before leaving.
Chiang returned shortly afterward and called for the clerk to come out from behind the counter, where he allegedly stabbed him repeatedly in the left side of his chest, they added.
A witness reported the incident to the police, and paramedics arriving at the scene found Tsai with three 3cm knife wounds in his chest, police said, adding that he lost consciousness soon afterward.
Tsai lost vital signs in the ambulance and could not be resuscitated, they added.
The stabbing was the latest in a series of violent attacks targeting convenience store clerks for requesting compliance with the government’s mask mandate.
Covid-19 put American infrastructure to the test — and by most measures, it failed, exposing the unstable, outdated systems that uphold our lives. Students without access to the internet tried to get by on once-a-week printed packets. Nurses wore trash bags as medical equipment. Nobody could buy toilet paper. But these failures, along with so many more, may also have provided the impetus — in the form of unprecedented federal funding — for the United States to modernize itself, filling cracks and bridging gaps in our technological, medical and manufacturing capabilities that have been widening for decades.
To date, the federal government has allocated $4.52 trillion in response to Covid-19 — a staggering figure, one that exceeds the entire federal budget in 2019. Most of that funding comes from just two bills: the Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security, or CARES, Act, passed in March 2020 ($2.2 trillion), and the American Rescue Plan Act, or A.R.P., from March 2021 ($1.9 trillion). These bills covered a huge range of funding, much of it focused on short-term recovery: Together, they allocated more than $1 trillion in direct aid to Americans in economic need, including $464 billion for additional unemployment benefits and $695 billion for stimulus checks, and also allocated nearly $428 billion for programs to aid small businesses.
But the two bills also made huge investments in the future. In many cases, the small-business aid enabled companies to pivot, by investing in new technologies and retraining workers. And the bills funneled enormous sums into industries for needs that stretch far beyond Covid: $390 billion for health care, $79.3 billion for the transportation sector and $716 billion for states and localities, much of it for modernization efforts. “The pandemic revealed the brittleness of American infrastructure, including automation and broadband,” says Ryan Calo, a founding director of the University of Washington Tech Policy Lab. “It’s a once-in-a-generation idea that the government would invest so massively in infrastructure. You have to address problems not only of today but that you anticipate to be perhaps a decade or so down the line.”
Not surprisingly, a large share of Covid-related federal funding went to health spending: $662 billion in total, including biomedical research, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. Much of that extended coverage for Americans: $80 billion to continue Medicaid coverage, $23 billion to fund COBRA coverage through September 2021. Another big swath covered vaccine and therapeutics research and development: $53 billion, including $10 billion to Moderna and $11 billion to Pfizer. It also included substantial funding for biomedical research beyond the pharmaceutical companies: about $6 billion directly for research into Covid-19 and vaccines, administered by federal agencies. “I think this is one of the biggest, fastest biomedical-research efforts that we’ve ever launched,” says Matthew Fenton, who oversees grants for the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. N.I.A.I.D.’s operating budget for 2020 was $5.89 billion; the CARES Act, Coronavirus Preparedness and Response Supplemental Appropriations Act and the A.R.P. allocated an additional $4.53 billion, specifically to study and develop treatments, protocols and diagnostics for Covid-19. …
The Covid funds are functioning as a one-time injection to compensate for what has been a trend toward disinvestment in recent years. Decades of previous investment — not only in biomedical research but in engineering, physics and chemistry — set up the scientific foundation the Covid-19 vaccine developers built upon. Yet according to the American Association for the Advancement of Science, U.S. government investment in nondefense R.& D. has fallen, slowly but significantly, over time, from 5.8 percent of the federal budget in 1966 to 1.5 percent in 2020. “The message there is, you don’t know what’s coming,” says Neal Lane, a senior fellow in science and technology policy at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy and the former director of the National Science Foundation. “You need to be making a sustainable, long-term, growing investment in science and engineering so that you’re ready to address these big crises.” …
we started today with markets down globally, Dow down a thousand at one point, and travel restrictions being put in place in Europe and Asia…not an expert on the virus, i went to MSM for a few quick takes on the new variant:
On a Black Friday in November, with markets closing early? Go figure!
Markets and oil tumble as a new coronavirus variant brings back travel restrictions
NYT: Stocks around the world tumbled on Friday, with the S&P 500 logging its worst day since February, and oil prices plunged, after evidence of a new coronavirus variant in South Africa prompted some countries to reinstate travel restrictions and reignited concerns about the economic toll imposed by the pandemic.
The number of mutations in this new variant has raised fears that it could be especially contagious and render current vaccines less effective. But scientists haven’t come to firm conclusions yet. …
The S&P 500 closed 2.3 percent lower and the Nasdaq composite index dropped 2.2 percent. European stock markets fell 3 to 5 percent. …
Buying opportunities abound.
The Dobbs Index is still up 11.5% for the year,
although the yearly high was just a couple weeks ago.
excerpt from Yves at Naked Capitalism:
Probable Vaccine-Escaping Covid Variant Sequenced in Gauteng, South Africa and Spreading Rapidly; Press Underplaying Downside Risk
This variant has the potential to be DEFCON Level-1 bad. It is so different from current variants that calling it a variant is a misnomer; it is more likely to be another strain and could even be SARS-Cov-3. Unlike the press, the experts on GitHub were discussing the implications in the summary statement, which remains unchanged:
As I asked GM:
His response:
My next question: And am I correct in further assuming that its pretty fast emergence suggests it is competing effectively with and potentially out competing current variants?
Consider GM’s cheery advice (emphasis his):
Joe Biden Urgently Needs a Chief Brand Strategist. I have posted here before on my concerns about Democratic messaging. With less than a year to go and all odds are against Democrats holding the House. The Senate will likely remain very close or swing Republican. November 2022 is the drop dead deadline for Democracy in the U.S.A. If Democrats can’t hold control, it’s over folks and there is a lot of work to be done. Here are some excerpts from a great post on Born To Run The Numbers (BTRTN).
it’s not just Americans who have lost the plot…
How the $4 Trillion Flood of Covid Relief Is Funding the Future
From broadband to transportation to high-tech medical manufacturing, benefits from America’s pandemic money infusion will linger.