Open thread Sept. 21, 2021 Dan Crawford | September 21, 2021 5:28 am Comments (36) | Digg Facebook Twitter |
A GOP takeover of the House in the 2022 Midterm is a near certainty. Democratic control is only obtainable with 100% Democratic unity. Dems must wake up to the political reality, urgency and get focused. Democracy depends on it.
From a summary of a very detailed analysis at: https://tinyurl.com/2fndth92
“Anyway, we got a GOP net gain of roughly a dozen seats, more than the five-seat improvement they need from the 2020 results to win the House majority. This is a deliberately modest outlook, and Republicans could easily blow past it next year, while there are also scenarios under which Democrats are able to minimize those GOP gains and perhaps even save their majority. But our default expectation has been, and remains, a Republican House takeover next year.”
Scary, but I’d wait until the redistricting is done.
Indeed. The Dem-controlled NYS legislature is looking
to reduce the number of GOP districts in their state by
four or five, to compensate for the fact that the 2020
census cost them one House seat. That will help.
NY Will Soon Lose 1 House Seat. The GOP Might Lose 5
Buying opportunities abound…
The New York scenario which you outline is already included in the detailed analysis. See: https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/redistricting-in-america-part-eight-a-quick-summation-of-a-long-series/#NewYork
The summary of a very detailed analysis at: https://tinyurl.com/2fndth92
Dems are still in BIG TROUBLE!
Perhaps the NYS gambit will inspire the 19 (or so) other
Dem controlled legislatures in the US to do likewise.
At least those with GOP Reps in Congress, which is
not the case in New England.
No, Border Patrol is not whipping Haitians. That is not a bull whip, that is split reins which are common amongst horse riders.
The media portrayal yet again is driving a frenzy of public outrage of poor optics, while politicians sit in Washington bemoaning the news while a humanitarian crisis we have going on down here gets press for all the wrong reasons.
Yes, no whip, just reins
Still looked awful.
ANOTHER HORSE VIDEO, REINS NO WHIP
but look at how they use the reins
You should see how I was trained at the time I entered the Marine Corps to use an unloaded M14 for crowd control in the seventies. Heel to head and barrel on top of head.
Tt was a stupid maneuver, 2-3 horsemen doing crowd control in an open area?
don’t know about Marines. met an ex FBI in college. said he was trained on the night-stick: “you don’t want to injure them, just enough to hurt. or they’ll come looking for you when they get out of jail.”
them boys down to Del Rio look like they seen too many cowboy movies.
10th Marines and 82nd Airborne were on call in case of rioting in Washington DC in the early seventies
LESSON IN USE OF REINS https://youtu.be/mswhpLuempw
LESSON IN USE OF REINS
Texas border agents DENY they are whipping migrants
In Push to Tax the Rich, White House Spotlights Billionaires’ Tax Rates
well, i guess i don’t know much about split reins. having been associated with horse trainers for forty years or so, i never saw any need for whips to control horses. but then we don’t drive cattle or people like cattle.
i’d say somteting stinks about this, and it isn’t horse poop.
It could be that the horsemen in the picture
are dealing with their horses using ‘split reins’ &
those odious miscreants are simply getting in the way
Horse expert explains…
Rodeo horses or cutting horses you use splits. Easier to move the horse around when you’ve got a jumpy animal to herd.
I honestly feel bad for the border patrol and state troopers who are stuck in the middle of a political battle over a humanitarian crisis.
There are things we could do, such as send resources to Haiti. We as a nation could also send contractors…some of whom are no longer working in Afghanistan, to rebuild some basic public infrastructure. There are options. What’s happening out here is a symptom of poor policy and the republican agenda to cry wolf every time someone the opposing team takes the field.
Someone I know who actually rides cutting horses says you don’t even use reins. The horse knows what to do. Don’t get in his way.
I agree with your comment on “splits,” even though I am not an accomplished rider myself. Dogs I know, horses I do not. One time at 16, I was almost pinned to a wood fence by a horse which was moving sideways. Some how I leaped straight up and over the fence. Highest I ever jumped. Could not dunk a basketball and could only “thunk (Noise from hitting the rim with the ball)” it on the rim. 🙂
They should not have been given that assignment. Too few of them.
well, maybe you know more about this than i do. why do they need to herd people like cattle?
CUTTING HORSE VIDEO
Democrats work to iron out budget differences as White House talks continue
NYT – Sep 23
Top Democrats on Capitol Hill grasped to resolve their disagreements over a multi-trillion-dollar social safety net and climate package on Thursday, as President Biden and his team planned another day of negotiations with key lawmakers to find a legislative path to enact his domestic policy agenda.
Democratic leaders claimed progress toward a deal, announcing that they had agreed upon an array of possible ways to pay for it. But they offered no details about what programs would be included or what the total cost would eventually be, and what they called a “framework agreement” appeared to be modest.
The Senate Finance Committee chairman, Senator Ron Wyden of Oregon, and the House Ways and Means Committee chairman, Representative Richard Neal, signed off on provisions that their respective committees already saw eye to eye on: a top income tax rate of 39.6 percent, which affluent taxpayers faced before President Donald J. Trump cut it to 37 percent in 2017; a crackdown on tax-preferred conservation easements, often used by the rich to lower taxation on historical properties; and closing a loophole, famously used by Peter Thiel, a Silicon Valley billionaire, that can shield huge investment gains from taxation within an individual retirement account.
They agreed that the plan should fulfill Mr. Biden’s call to raise taxes on corporations and capital gains, but did not settle on rates for those items, according to aides familiar with the discussions who detailed them on the condition of anonymity. And they committed to trying to find common ground on their other priorities, such as Mr. Wyden’s proposal to tax the wealth gains of billionaires.
The talks came on a day when Mr. Biden and administration officials were expected to continue meetings focused on advancing both a $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill and a broader $3.5 trillion domestic policy plan that most Democrats now concede will have to be scaled back to win passage.
Party leaders hope to coalesce around a compromise on the social safety net bill by Monday, when a vote is planned on the infrastructure measure. But agreement on a total cost, which programs to include and which to jettison, and how to pay for it will involve painful choices for a divided caucus.
Still, Democratic leaders predicted they would ultimately deliver both measures to Mr. Biden’s desk.
“I’m confident we will pass both bills,” Speaker Nancy Pelosi told reporters during her weekly news conference at the Capitol. …
… Democrats are aiming to pass the legislation on a party-line vote using a fast-track budget process known as reconciliation that shields it from a filibuster and allows it to pass on a simple majority vote. But because of their slim margins of control on Capitol Hill, Mr. Biden needs the support of every Democrat in the Senate and can lose as few as three in the House to win enactment of the plan.
But progressive lawmakers who want to see the reconciliation bill completed first pressed Mr. Biden on Wednesday to weigh in with House Democratic leaders against holding a Monday vote on the infrastructure legislation. Concerned that their more conservative-leaning colleagues may refuse to support the larger plan once the infrastructure measure is enacted, liberal Democrats have said they will withhold their votes for that bill until the reconciliation plan clears Congress.
I can understand the progressives not wanting to get cheated again, but it does not seem wise to me when a little success might lead on to bigger success if the people see it’s working for them.
even I (because in the grand scheme of things I am on their side) think that asking for too much can backfire, and some of what they are asking for does not seem well thought out.
just in case any of them care what i think.
As Debt Default Looms, Yellen Faces Her Biggest Test Yet
well, Social Security is paid out of payroll tax. congress may have trouble paying back the Trust Fund. I don’t know how much of a cut to benefits that would mean today, but I’m guessing not much. now, if they don’t have a budget can they pay the defense department? and if they can i’m sure they could transfer some funds (Trump did). and if they can’t, well I spect the shutdown won’t last too long.
how about some quantitative easing?
actually, i may have misunderstood something. people are still paying taxes. so the money is still there. it’s just congress refusing to apend it.
that should be a crime. send them to jail until they pay their debts.
Policy Center says debt limit could be hit in mid-October
Someday someone will read and comprehend Section 4 of the 14th Amendment.
Doesn’t look like anyone looked at the pictures I posted. Too bad. might learn something about riding and cutting horses.
There is another picture on Twitter showing the officer reaching down grabbing the shirt of a migrant. looked rough in the video. the incident was expalained as “the migrant grabbed the bridle of the horse endangering the officer. there is a good still photo on twitter showing the migrant has both hands full of stuff not the bridle. also shows a “split rein” that looks rather long and thick to me, nothing like the reins in the pictures i posted here. in any case the picture does not show why, or if, the migrant grabbed the bridle. doesn’t look to me like he could have. but if someone was riding me down, or swinging a whip at me from a horse, I think I would try to grab his bridle.