Water
Utah and Beyond
Tuesday, June 29, 2021: The small town of Lytton, British Columbia, Canada recorded a high of 121 degrees Fahrenheit. This was the highest ever recorded in Lytton, in British Columbia, in Canada. Wednesday, June 30, 2021, the small town of Lytton burned to the ground.
On Monday, June 28, 2021, the temperature in Portland, Oregon reached 116 degrees Fahrenheit, the highest ever recorded. On that same day, Seattle recorded 108 degrees Fahrenheit; 3 degrees above the previous record high.
From NPR, June 24, 2021:
… Town in Utah has stopped issuing building permits because of the drought.
… Henceforth, Pinal County, Arizona is requiring developers seeking project approval prove that the proposed project has a 100-yr supply of water.
Those are some of the happenings in the west so far this year. For years now, large parts of Washington, Oregon, California, Arizona, Nevada, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Colorado, Utah, New Mexico, and Texas have been in the grip of a multi-year (up to 20-year) drought.
California has 40-million people; water for maybe 30-million. These days, most years, California has less and less water. All the states listed above depend to some extent on snowpack for their water (30% of California’s water traditionally comes from the snowpack in the Sierras). About 4.4-million acre-feet of the some state’s total 90-million acre-feet consumption comes from the Colorado River which is fed from the Rocky Mountain snowpack.). During ‘normal’ years, 30% of California’s water came from ground water (meaning that some 35% of its water came from run off). The current drought in California is a result of lack of surface run-off due the lack of rain during the winter rainy season, and the diminishment of the Sierra and Rocky Mountain (Colorado) snowpacks.
Snowpacks are a major source of water for most of the drought-stricken states listed above. Climate Change is reducing snowpacks across the Rockies, the Sierras, the Olympic, and the Cascades ranges (and, all around the world). Climate change is also accountable for the diminished rainfall during the rainy season, and higher temperatures.
During drought years, up to 60% of California’s water comes from ground water. California’s ground water is pumped up from aquifers; aquifers being underground layers of water bearing/saturated rock, gravel, sand, silt, … . Some aquifers are regularly replenished by runoff from rain and snow melting. In others, the water therein may have been locked away for a billion years. For centuries, humans have used aquifers as a source of fresh, potable water, and for irrigation. In many areas around the world, the more easily accessible aquifers have been severely depleted by this usage. The rate of depletion has been accelerated in those areas experiencing reduced rainfall due to Climate Change, in those areas experiencing population growth, and in those areas of increased withdrawal for agriculture (70% of all extracted aquifer water is used for agriculture).
Beyond depletion from over extraction, today, many aquifers are threatened by salt water intrusion due to rising sea levels caused by Climate Change (think upon the Surf City condo collapse and its extensions a moment). Aquifers are a most important source of fresh water. Fresh water is one of our most essential resources. Far more essential than fossil fuels.
Aquifers, reservoirs and lakes, and snowpacks are the most significant means of storing water. In the main, aquifers hold long stored water from runoff from rain fall and melting snow. Climate Change models show severe impacts on the both. The models predict that some areas of the earth will get too much rain, some too little, and that the traditional seasonal patterns of rain and snow fall will be severely disrupted. Seasonal patterns that farmers have always depended on to plant and harvest have been changing in many areas of the world. Often, even the very choice of which crops to grow was premised on these patterns.
The increased temperatures and dry grasslands across the west have led to a doubling of the frequency and the size wildfires and forest fires. The fire season that once began in October now begins in June; never ends in some areas. Resultant these fires, large parts of states, of the west, have been repeatedly blanketed in the smoke. Smoke so thick that skies were turned orange for days; air so filled with smoke that staying indoors with doors and windows closed, and the wearing face masks when outdoors was required.
How is it that a significant portion of Americans (including many in positions of leadership, of stature) do not, or pretend to not, believe in Climate Change? That a significant portion of those who do believe in Climate Change think that we still have lots of time to act? How is it that so many are ill informed?
A significant portion of Americans believe that things will soon go back to normal after we take appropriate action. How can this be? Under the best of scenarios, things will continue to worsen for the next 30 years. None of us alive today, none of grandchildren, none our great grandchildren, none of great-great grand children will ever again see the ‘normal’ of 1980 again. Those green house gases already up there have long half-lives (methane, 10.5-years; CO2, 120-years and more; CFCs, up to 500-years. Why aren’t we better informed about Climate Change?
Why isn’t more being done to lower emissions of greenhouse gases?
With all that the consequences of Climate Change the west has been experiencing, why aren’t more Americans demanding more be done about Climate Change? How much more catastrophe will it take? After all that has been happening, how is it that so many are still in denial? What should be happening that isn’t? At this point, why aren’t alarms going off everywhere?
For one thing, the media is not, has not been, doing its job of keeping the public informed. In a July 2, 2021 interview with Rose Aguilar (Your Call, KALW), Mark Hertsgaard (executive director of Covering Climate Now) said the the major news outlets told him that their rational for their lack of coverage for Climate Change was because they didn’t wish to be labeled as activists. That would include some of the same outlets (Fred Hiatt and Leonard Downie of the Washington Post; Judith Miller et al of the New York times; CNN, Fox, ABC, CBS, NBC, … ) who either advocated for, enabled, or both, the 2003 invasion of Iraq; who propagated the all false equivalencies over the past 15-years. Once again, the media has failed us.
For another, there has been a lack of leadership. Too little is being done because of a this lack of leadership. How can someone(s), such as Senator Inhofe, Oklahoma, stand on the floor or the US Senate and denounce Climate Change in the interest of fossil fuels? These are not stupid men and women. They are despicably corrupt. Recently a lobbyists for Exxon was recorded bragging about his ability to waylay legislation unfavorable to the interest of fossil fuel producers. He implies that he has influence with Senators Capito, Manchin, Tester, Hassan. Sinema, Daines, Cornyn, Sinema, Barrasso, Kelly, Rubio, and Coons. Are these senators s willing to trade their votes for power, for campaign funds? What about doing what is right for America? For the world?
A third thing that bears major responsibility for the inadequacy of our response to date, one that bears a major responsibility for the advent of Climate Change itself, is capitalism. Though capitalism may not have been sent down by angel, revealed to a prophet, or laid down in scripture; it does have many a devout, ardent, believer; believers who are willing to make almost any sacrifice its name. Many capitalists are willing to sacrifice the future of their, of all our, grandchildren and their grandchildren for the sake of (in the name of?) capitalism. It is capitalism’s demand for growth that is responsible for much of the CO2 and other greenhouse gases now in our atmosphere. Capitalist have always been too willing to sacrifice the environment, and lives, in the name of capitalism.
Americans have this penchant for wanting to find someone to blame after disasters. We heard that such and such forest/wild fire was started by a camper, a vagrant, PG&E, …, a lightning strike, Blaming the fires on a person, an event, doesn’t help, doesn’t make things any better. These fires were fueled by extremely dry grass, and dried out forest; occurred during spells of extreme high temperatures; are almost impossible to extinguish. The dried out grasslands and forest, the extremely high temperatures, the dried out earth, the drought that caused these conditions, all the things that caused the fires, the fires themselves, were all caused by, were consequences of, Climate Change. The burning of fossil fuels was the perpetrator of Climate Change, not the camper, the vagrant, the arsonist, PG&E. Cause, my dear Watson.
Darwin explained the role adaptation plays in the survival of a species. In re climate Change, the first order of adaptation needed is for humans to find ways to greatly reduce the emission of greenhouse gases. For this to happen, the media, the government, and the economic model need to adapt, to change. In order to survive the changes of Climate Change already baked in, we humans must be able to adapt. Much as the migration of great plains refugees from the 1930s Dust-bowl was an adaptation, we are now seeing migrants adapt by moving away from drought-stricken areas of Africa and the Middle-East; from the disrupted weather patterns of Central America. It is only a matter of time before a migration begins from the drought stricken western United States to states with adequate water; from states with too high temperatures to those more habitable. The Dust-bowl lasted about 8-years. Climate Change will last at least one-hundred years; perhaps, hundreds.
To date, several law suits have been filed against fossil fuel producers for their role in Climate Change. This should be expanded to the scale of those brought against big tobacco in the 1990s. They need to be neutered, else they will continue to buy politicians, to prolong greenhouse emissions.
A way needs to be found to hold dirty politicians accountable for their role in enabling big oil, big coal, … None of the politicians who sold their souls to big tobacco ever paid the price for all the deaths caused. Tort law should be brought to bear on the media for their failure to inform. Finance and markets have taken significant steps meant to reign in big-oil, big-coal, … They need to do more.
Overpopulation is the biggest canary of all. A behemoth of years in the making, one that will take years to turn around. No doubt, Climate Change will take a huge toll (maybe even billions). But, population control is something humans must get a grip on; else, like rodent populations, go through cycles of over-population and die-off.
Early on the forecast repercussions of climate change were predicted to mostly impact Africa, South America, and SE Asia. It was convenient rationalization by white elites that wanted the black, brown, and beige folk to disappear from the planet. Liberals might have balked at this had not population control profoundly threatened welfare economics based on deficit spending. So, all elite ideologies had a horse in this race and I still want a pony.
actually, it’s above the arctic circle that is warming the fastest; twice as fast as the rest of the planet…there’s a good reason for that (among others); less snowpacks and ice coverage means less of the sun’s warming gets reflected back into space, so the region warms faster…the feedback is obvious; more warming, less ice & snow, more warming, less ice and snow, and so on…
it’s not a coincidence that Canadian and northern US temperature records were being set at the end of June; the northern areas of the planet get their most daylight and hence sun warming during the summer solstice… north of the arctic circle, they’re seeing the sun 24 hours a day, and there’s no ice to reflect that sunlight back into space…ground temperatures at one spot in northern Siberia reached 138 F as a result…what chance does the permafrost have against that?
i am questioning my memory on that siberia land temperature, and google is not showing me a 138 F record…a recent record that comes up in search is 48C, which works out to 118.4F
https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/news/arctic-circle-summer-global-warming-b1875285.html
note that this was a land temperature record, not an air temperature..
Both high altitudes and high latitudes are seeing the greatest warming, both in that feedback loop you described above “…less snowpacks and ice coverage means less of the sun’s warming gets reflected back into space, so the region warms faster…the feedback is obvious; more warming, less ice & snow, more warming, less ice and snow, and so on…” The high altitude regions provide water to SE Asia and Africa. The high latitude regions came as a shock to those hoping to be among the survivors of the big thaw in North America and northern Europe while lower latitudes died of thirst. It was literally unimaginable to those that had other plans. What rarely is considered is the impact on the oceans’ thermohaline circulation when there is no more ice to melt and dump cold fresh water into the northern seas? Some scientists had been writing doom’s day papers on this and a film (The Day After Tomorrow – noticeable hat tip to The Day After {1983}) poorly depicting the circumstances was released in 2004. The World Set Free episode of Cosmos mentions the guys that began the theoretical work predicting our present circumstances back in the late 19th (yep) century. So, it took over 100 years for the fad to catch on.
The World Set Free (Cosmos: A Spacetime Odyssey) – Wikipedia
\
WRONG!!!
“California has 40-million people; water for maybe 30-million.”
California has plenty of water for 40 million people. It doesn’t have water for all the irrigated lands in the Central Valleys and the ag lands in SoCal.
DD
I must challenge you. I do, you might, remember the truck gardens in Fremont, Newark, …, the pear orchards along N. First St on some of the finest growing soils on earth. I’ve watched the development of first Livermore and Pleasonton, then Patterson, Newman, … A lot of houses, a lot of people, all of whom are going to want to eat.
If only there were a way to cut greenhouse gas emissions, provide food to a population, and also educate the masses on how better to live/work/produce?
More at 5
My prediction: water will eventually become a common good like air itself and the West will pull eminent domain over all existing water and water rights. It will be a legal mess, people will be mad as hell but sooner or later we have to rid ourselves of antiquated water rights and laws or face the same fate as the Anastasi.
Although a grind to read, to me this essay seemed worthy of the task.
deepadaptation.pdf (lifeworth.com)
A Map for Navigating Climate Tragedy
Pay particular attention to the Systems of Denial part because it goes a long way in answering the Author’s question why?
Early adaptation, which arguably should be happening now, can mitigate the disruption a climate refugee ascertains.
Thanks, George for the link. It is such a complex issue involving almost all of the sciences; making it hard to write about in one piece (Even one book, I suspect) without getting drawn off course. Anyone of the aspects I mentioned in this piece deserved much more attention. Bringing in the social consequences as the good Prof does further exemplifies this complexity.
Ken:
I have yet to write on a healthcare issue that was less than a thousand words. You are right; but, but, you have interesting reads.
The only good thing about the climate situation is that the deniers have left decent society and just hang around with the other imbeciles telling each other the lies they used to inflict on the non stupid.
Nearly 200,000 ordered evacuated 13 Feb 2017
San Francisco (AFP) – Almost 200,000 people were under evacuation orders Monday after damage to the auxiliary spillway of a dam in northern California raised fears the structure could fail and unleash torrential waters.
The reservoir of the Oroville Dam, located 75 miles (120 kilometers) north of the state capital Sacramento, had been completely full after several weeks of heavy rain.
The 770-foot dam itself was not in danger of collapse, according to officials, but the emergency spillway was causing major concern due to erosion damage on its concrete top, the Sacramento Bee newspaper said.
Authorities were releasing 100,000 cubic feet (2,830 cubic meters) of water per second from the main spillway, which dropped the reservoir Sunday to a level where there was no more flow into the auxiliary spillway, the Bee cited Department of Water Resources spokesman Doug Carlson as saying.
+1
Ken,
I had started a piece awhile ago on this topic and was working with Bill to get a history of water and the current usages and what we can do as a society as things change. I had stopped about a third of the way through and now I feel like I need to finish it.
Some anecdotal things that have changed from a farm and ranch perspective is that we are digging stock tanks at a frenzied pace. I now have two and the bigger one is about to get a house roof catchment system to help keep it filled when it rains. We used to have decent rains through the year but as time progresses, we can go more than 2 months without a single drop. This is in conjunction with the cities put in Central and West Texas that are now piping paper from east Texas aquifers, making it to where the rest of us have to drill deeper wells every year.
One of the reasons (there are many) that we got into farming was some research I had done a few years back that equated 60% of our produce is coming out of Mexico and another 20% from California. This scared the bajesus out of me because we know that both Mexico and California are both going through record droughts. We also have heard and seen farmers south of the border being occupied by cartels. One slip in diplomacy and more than half our fresh produce is gone. We also import by way of diesel costs tons and tons of things from Chile, Costa Rica, and other locales far, far away. Seasonal doesn’t mean anything anymore.
If we combine climate change, growing economic instability because of it, and poor land management, we are on pace to not be able to feed our population without a major intervention, and the water part of it is arguably the hardest.
None of my business, but, is it that you are farming in or near TX? Been a while since I’ve looked at it, but how bad off are the aquifers? How deep are the wells in West TX? As I’m alluding to in mine to DD (above), CA’s drop in ag production is in good part due to the development of housing on former farm lands.
I was raised on a large farm, saw my father and all the other farmers in the area go broke as a result of a four-year drought, we couldn’t raise feed. Rode tractors day and night, to no avail. Saw our cows sold at auction for ten-cents on the dollar. So, what do the climate models show for your area?
do not, or pretend to not, believe in Climate Change? That a significant portion of those who do believe in Climate Change think that we still have lots of time to act?
“
~~~Ken Melvin
those of you who believe that there is global warming should be working faster at Universal pre-pubertal vasectomy. you should be getting your flight Fuel and your CO2 out of the stratosphere and getting your butts out of the airplanes. stop Flying to meetings about global warming and start teaching people how to do vasectomies.
I will be glad to explain to anyone who still has an open mind I will be glad to explain why I do not believe in global warming, but I know that by now most everyone has become hardened in their own opinions most of which hold no Scientific Water.
Justin, i would appreciate it if you’d briefly explained why you “do not believe in global warming” …i am not going to argue with you about it, i’d just like to hear what your thinking is..