Imagine that, on the eve of a national election, a candidate is far ahead in all the polls and seems to be cruising to victory. Then the results come in, and the unthinkable has happened: the candidate has lost handily. Your first instinct would be to take a look at how the election was carried out and the votes tabulated to see if everything was kosher.
But that’s not what happened in November 2020. In case you forgot, here’s 538’s final forecast from November 3. The actual results were a big setback for the Democrats on all fronts, House, Senate and President.
That’s what’s so bizarre about the claims of Trump, Hawley, Cruz et al. They did way better than the polls said they would. It’s as if the Democratic bust of 11-3-20 disappeared down a memory hole.