Calling Pennsylvania On November 3rd
It is very likely that the candidate who wins Pennsylvania will become president. A problem is that the election officials are not allowed to look at absentee ballots before November 3rd. It is likely that Trump will lead the in person vote and try to declare victory.
However, the party registration of absentee voters is public.
The US Elections Project 2020 General Election Early Voting Statistics webpage is fascinating.
It shows the amazing early voting turnout. One fault is that it has a list of states with detailed data and a map of states showing early votes cast so far as a fraction of total votes in 2016. This currently shows Pennsylvania with a relatively low ratio of early votes = 27.8 % of the 2016 vote.
The page for Pennsylvania shows that (so far) 69.7% of those early votes have been cast by registered Democrats and 20.8% by registered Republicans. This is an extraordinary imbalance. Assuming voters with no party affiliation split equally (which is generous to Trump given polls) this suggests a 49.7% of all early votes lead already booked by Biden. So about 13.3% of the 2016 turnout. Even with very high 2020 turnout that has to be over 10% of 2020 votes.
It will also be possible to do this election night.
I hope that this calculation will make it possible to call the election before the absentee votes are counted. I also hope TV networks do this (no reason not too — the call is always a forecast based on exit polls and models).
If Texas or Georgia are close enough that might be what delays the decision.
Why would any vote totals be released until the counting is over? When announcements like “with 17% of precincts reporting, X leads Y by 12,077 votes” I believed that meant 17% had finished counting, not elected a point to report partial results. PA probably should report on Friday night really, since they won’t even know they have all the ballots until then if I understand their rules.
News Media likes to project.
I get that they want to give people news about this. Look, this could work, but there would need to be pretty large ranges. Biden wins = actual plus low point of estimated Biden range for absentees and same with Trump. Conceptually that is what they do all the time really. I just don’t believe the “bookkeeping” will support this. Keeping track of the absentees that are actualized in reported counts would be very difficult. Precinct A reports, but they counted their 978 absentees. That’s their job. Oh, and their affiliation is not announced as it is not important. RW also was using the term “early”, not absentee. Early in-person actualizes as quickly as in-person Election Day. Absentee mail-ins really is the hard nut.
In Virginia (where I live) this year’s general election results will not be certified (final) until November 16, 2020.
My brother just texted me this bit of really good news.
“But white suburban women aren’t answering Trump’s plea. In 2016, Trump won white women in the state by 50 percent to Hillary Clinton’s 47 percent, according to exit polls. Now, Biden is ahead by as much as 23 points with white women, according to a Quinnipiac survey from earlier this month. A Washington Post/ABC poll of Pennsylvania voters in September showed a similar lead, with white women preferring Biden by 13 points. Among suburban women overall, he’s ahead by 18 points.”
https://www.politico.com/ne…
Back of the envelope numbers, if the polling is accurate, shows 400K less votes for Trump this year.