95% of this article is exactly the same analysis of long leading indicators I have done twice a year for about the past 10 years.
On that score, point 2 – that a vaccine seems likely to be in place by then for at least the most vulnerable parts of the population – has nothing to do with politics.
As to point one, all poll aggregators and virtually all economic-based forecasts indicate a likely Biden win (e.g., applying the index of leading indicators to the contestants’ polls from the end of Q1). That isn’t political either; that’s simply historical metrics.
Will the national election make a difference in the future course of the pandemic? Go to 91-divoc.com, and scroll down to the third set of graphs: infections and deaths Per Capita for 122 countries.
The US’s history is unique. It is only in the company of third world countries. Almost every other industrialized country, both East and West, including all of the major ones, brought the pandemic under control, even though several – France and Spain – got complacent and have allowed a subsequent resurgence.
The only factor that explains the uniquely bad response of the US among industrialized countries to the pandemic is national leadership.
The only “leap of faith” required to back up point one is whether the likely election winner is also likely to be able to achieve the result of dozens of other national political leaderships in the industrialized world. That seems a reasonable calculation to me.
As a result, to include the matter of the likely course of the pandemic based on the outcome of the election in November is an important determinant of the analysis of the numbers.
There will never be a vaccine for this. If you want a pseudo one so people can go back to normal…..good.
Based on my reading and understanding as a medical school professor for the past 33 years, it seems likely that there will be a vaccine by early next year. How durable the immunity will be is another question.