What about the compatible side story — unaffected by contagion rates — of returning people to the mainstream who have survived the virus and who presumably have immunity (me?)?
What are the medical test possibilities both in scientific technique and mass production potentials? Can we produce some kind of ID card to act as a pass to return to normal activity (just like nothing happened) — could we press state motor vehicle departments into providing the practical machinery?
Would give us great news everyday — and tend to seamlessly phase us back to normal.
I just watched Dr. Gupta on MTP (Meet the Press Daily) say that before we can guarantee people safe to return to work we should ideally test their viral load (which he says can remain three weeks after symptoms) as well as their antibodies. Also said the disease could be seasonable and that a vaccine may not cure it — a vaccine did not cure the flu.
Sounds like we could go on forever. On Smerconish (Saturday on CNN) a Dr. Bhattachaya suggested that the death rate could be off by two orders of magnitude. My answer at the time was that the rate difference might not matter as long as a much higher infection rate left the same absolute, high number of deaths.
Of late the death rate here seems pretty steadily 1.5% of reported illnesses. But nobody goes to the doctor with mild symptoms these day — indeed, nobody used to. Four out of five reported illnesses do not require hospitalization. On these two bases alone the death rate could be off by a factor of 10.
Back to returning to the workforce: one of the doctors on MTP said that this year’s immunity may not protect against next years virus (just like flu). Here’s the thing: anybody who stayed out of the hospital the first time should stay out the next time around — immunity or no immunity.
All these rate caveats may apply to flu numbers also. What we have to watch is what happens in the summer and fall. We cannot go on like this forever. As Dr. Bhattachaya explains (watch the video), more lives may be lost in the long run here and especially in the Third World than are saved by (my term) living under permanent house arrest.
Indisputable three sentence proof of global warming
Earth’s temperature is already high enough to melt the permafrost (part of year freezing, part melting, more melting than freezing). The permafrost (I’m not exactly sure what it is) reportedly contains twice as much carbon as there is in the atmosphere already (may not be all in gas form but believe will all end up in gas form eventually). The more it melts, the more carbon dioxide is released, the hotter it gets, the more it melts: more than enough to eventually turn the earth into a pole to pole swamp (normal condition over last 500 years).
It is beginning to become apparent that the Chinese government did nobody any favors by hiding the findings of its doctors and misreporting the extent of the virus’s numbers for over at least a month.
Course, even if they had been as accurate as possible there is no question it would not have affected trump’s actions at all. However, maybe some other more competent governments could have responded better and faster.
That is way out of reach of our current government.
“A US epidemiologist was embedded with the Chinese CDC. The Trump administration discontinued the position. The Trump administration told the United States’ embed at the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) that the position would be defunded, causing her to leave her post in July 2019,”
“China Concealed Extent of Virus Outbreak, U.S. Intelligence Says
Nick Wadhams and Jennifer Jacobs
April 1, 2020, 10:15 AM CDT Updated on April 1, 2020, 8:08 PM CDT
“China has concealed the extent of the coronavirus outbreak in its country, under-reporting both total cases and deaths it’s suffered from the disease, the U.S. intelligence community concluded in a classified report to the White House, according to three U.S. officials.
The officials asked not to be identified because the report is secret, and they declined to detail its contents. But the thrust, they said, is that China’s public reporting on cases and deaths is intentionally incomplete. Two of the officials said the report concludes that China’s numbers are fake.
What Asian tells you everything? As I explain to students while in Asia and working with them, you will never know everything. This person was in China for that reason besides just training them.
You do not believe Dr. Linda Quick, an epidemiologist based in Beijing would have found out? She trained their epidemiologists. I have more faith than what you show. We will have to disagree on this one.
What about the compatible side story — unaffected by contagion rates — of returning people to the mainstream who have survived the virus and who presumably have immunity (me?)?
What are the medical test possibilities both in scientific technique and mass production potentials? Can we produce some kind of ID card to act as a pass to return to normal activity (just like nothing happened) — could we press state motor vehicle departments into providing the practical machinery?
Would give us great news everyday — and tend to seamlessly phase us back to normal.
I just watched Dr. Gupta on MTP (Meet the Press Daily) say that before we can guarantee people safe to return to work we should ideally test their viral load (which he says can remain three weeks after symptoms) as well as their antibodies. Also said the disease could be seasonable and that a vaccine may not cure it — a vaccine did not cure the flu.
Sounds like we could go on forever. On Smerconish (Saturday on CNN) a Dr. Bhattachaya suggested that the death rate could be off by two orders of magnitude. My answer at the time was that the rate difference might not matter as long as a much higher infection rate left the same absolute, high number of deaths.
[video]
https://www.cnn.com/videos/health/2020/03/28/calculating-coronavirus-death-rate-smerconish-vpx.cnn
Of late the death rate here seems pretty steadily 1.5% of reported illnesses. But nobody goes to the doctor with mild symptoms these day — indeed, nobody used to. Four out of five reported illnesses do not require hospitalization. On these two bases alone the death rate could be off by a factor of 10.
Back to returning to the workforce: one of the doctors on MTP said that this year’s immunity may not protect against next years virus (just like flu). Here’s the thing: anybody who stayed out of the hospital the first time should stay out the next time around — immunity or no immunity.
All these rate caveats may apply to flu numbers also. What we have to watch is what happens in the summer and fall. We cannot go on like this forever. As Dr. Bhattachaya explains (watch the video), more lives may be lost in the long run here and especially in the Third World than are saved by (my term) living under permanent house arrest.
https://fsi.stanford.edu/news/coronavirus-deadly-they-say
And, in other news:
Indisputable three sentence proof of global warming
Earth’s temperature is already high enough to melt the permafrost (part of year freezing, part melting, more melting than freezing). The permafrost (I’m not exactly sure what it is) reportedly contains twice as much carbon as there is in the atmosphere already (may not be all in gas form but believe will all end up in gas form eventually). The more it melts, the more carbon dioxide is released, the hotter it gets, the more it melts: more than enough to eventually turn the earth into a pole to pole swamp (normal condition over last 500 years).
Indisputable.
https://www.pbs.org/video/polar-extremes-mfaum5/
It is beginning to become apparent that the Chinese government did nobody any favors by hiding the findings of its doctors and misreporting the extent of the virus’s numbers for over at least a month.
Course, even if they had been as accurate as possible there is no question it would not have affected trump’s actions at all. However, maybe some other more competent governments could have responded better and faster.
That is way out of reach of our current government.
Trump says China “should have told us” about coronavirus. He removed the official meant to do such..
“A US epidemiologist was embedded with the Chinese CDC. The Trump administration discontinued the position. The Trump administration told the United States’ embed at the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) that the position would be defunded, causing her to leave her post in July 2019,”
“China Concealed Extent of Virus Outbreak, U.S. Intelligence Says
Nick Wadhams and Jennifer Jacobs
April 1, 2020, 10:15 AM CDT Updated on April 1, 2020, 8:08 PM CDT
“China has concealed the extent of the coronavirus outbreak in its country, under-reporting both total cases and deaths it’s suffered from the disease, the U.S. intelligence community concluded in a classified report to the White House, according to three U.S. officials.
The officials asked not to be identified because the report is secret, and they declined to detail its contents. But the thrust, they said, is that China’s public reporting on cases and deaths is intentionally incomplete. Two of the officials said the report concludes that China’s numbers are fake.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-01/china-concealed-extent-of-virus-outbreak-u-s-intelligence-says
Its not like the intelligence sector has any regard for trump.
EM:
What Asian tells you everything? As I explain to students while in Asia and working with them, you will never know everything. This person was in China for that reason besides just training them.
Run,
But I doubt if that person had been there he or she would have been able to figure out what was really going on.
EM:
You do not believe Dr. Linda Quick, an epidemiologist based in Beijing would have found out? She trained their epidemiologists. I have more faith than what you show. We will have to disagree on this one.