Weekly Indicators for June 10 – 14 at Seeking Alpha
by New Deal democrat
Weekly Indicators for June 10 – 14 at Seeking Alpha
My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha.
The divergence between the near term vs. longer term forecast is increasing, and the risk that the forecast is too optimistic is asymmetrical, because for the economy, Trump’s chaotic tariff behavior cannot improve the situation, but can definitely cause harm.
Imagine a peak valuation day for the US equity SPX for the Greenspan’s facililated macroeconomic asset debt cycle starting on 10/10/2002 at 769 and ending on 3/6/2009 at 667. It isn’t hard if you try. The peak SPX valuation was on 10/11/ 2007 at 1576 – an expected mathematical fractal high.
Isn’t it the equity cycles low to low days and single peak valuation day that absolutely define the expanding and contracting global macroeconomic asset-debt system? For the global macroeconomic asset-debt system, isn’t it the hegemony nation’s low to low days and peak valuation day that defines, by plurality proxy, the entire global asst debt macroeconomic system?
There is a singing canary in the coal mine global system and that canary is the European, Chinese, and Mitsubushi banks which represent the majority of bad debt never to be repaid by private citizens, corporations, and countries which will perforce undergo default causing all asset prices to devolve to single global nadir point valuations defined by two cumululative global CRB and equity valuation points. Those two low valuation points represent the nadir from which the next facilitated global central bank expansion will occur.
And those two low valuations defines the global asset debt macroeconomic system.
If, by presidential decree, US one month treasuries were taken again to near zero, US housing demand would increase, but how much would global demand for commodities increase in terms of that limited US debt expansion of US created dollars? Not much…
The peak equity valuation for this final US hegemonic cycle starting on 3/6/2009 will occur in end July-early August 2019 and will occur by simple mathematical deterministic fractal saturation macroeconomic equity valuation progression.
Presidential candidates of the presiding party fair poorly during economic downturns. Consider Herbert Hoover, who was a 100 millionaire in 2020 terms, and a reasonably smart guy. He wrote a spiritual cleansing book on fishing – wash your soul with fishing…
Under the prism of economic devoluton, flim-flam becomes very obviously recognized as flim-flam – even by most ardent supporters.