A comment about the economy and the 2020 election
A comment about the economy and the 2020 election
Recently I’ve seen a bunch of takes to the effect that “the economy is doing great, and therefore it is likely that Donald Trump will be re-elected.” In my opinion that fear is overblown for three important reasons.
The first, least noteworthy reason, is that there is still a lot of time between now and the election. As I noted Monday, many – but not all – models of the economy indicate that a recession is likely between now and then, for reasons having nothing to do with the age of the expansion. Needless to say, a recession in 2020 would not bode well for either Trump or the GOP.
Secondly, consider what economic interventions Trump and the GOP have made since they inherited the economy from Obama. There have been three:
1. They passed a tax cut that lopsidedly favored the wealthy and corporations, that has generated zero acclaim from the middle and working classes – and with the decrease in tax refunds, may have generated net negative feelings.
2. Trump has started several trade wars that are proving unpopular, partly because they mainly have hurt portions of his own base, partly because they are resulting in net higher prices to consumers that may be getting noticed, and partly because negatively affected businesses may start laying off workers.
3. Trump is held responsible for the government shutdown that resulted in a mini-recession.
In short, it’s not clear to say the least that the public at large would give Trump credit for an economy that he mainly inherited from Obama and as to which his known interventions have been received negatively.
Finally, and most notably, the example of the Bush vs. Gore 2000 election strongly cuts against Trump. As I wrote in 2016, all of the fundamentals-based election models, such as the “bread and peace” model, or models based on the unemployment rate or on consumer income and spending, indicated that Gore should have won by nearly a landslide, on the order of 55%-45%, as shown in the graph below:
Instead, Gore won the popular vote by only 0.5%, despite being able to run on both peace and prosperity – the biggest outlier of the entire series going back to 1952.
Two big factors held Gore back: first, the economic expansion had gone on for nearly 10 years, and at some point the public takes it for granted, or in other words, “so what have you done for me lately?” Second, as his Vice President, Gore was stained by Bill Clinton’s slimy personal life.
Both of the factors that worked against Gore in 2000 are likely to work against Trump in 2020: if the economy remains in expansion, the public will probably take it for granted; and Trump’s pervasive sliminess, both public and private, will work against him. In short, Trump is likely to underperform compared with the fundamentals even more than did Gore.
While the example of 2016 certainly means that the 2020 election is another “all hands on deck” moment for Democrats, and nothing should be taken for granted, even if the economy remains in expansion as it is now I do not think that means Trump wins the election.
Also demographics. We’ve had four more years of Fox News funerals.
If any of the rumblings about DNC complicity in the Steele Dossier or corruption in the FBI and DOJ with the Clinton camp are true, and many like the NY Times are starting to come around to that, then the Democrats will be playing defense for a long time. It may not matter so much who they propose given that whatever public trust they had retained will be down to even Blue Dogs questioning further support.
DV:
Welcome to AB. First time comments always go to moderation to weed out spam and spammers besides advertising.
SW,
Not enough.
If I thought people voted on the economy I might pay attention to this.
Course, they always say “the economy” or “healthcare” when asked by pollsters. I take that with the same pound of salt I listened to the fictitious obama to trump voters claims.
Basically, “I’m not a racist, I voted for Obama”.
No, no you didn’t.
Disgusted Voter,
The only rumblings are coming from trump, barr, fox, etc.
Just one thought here.
When did you become aware of the Steele dossier? Does not make a teeny, tiny bit of sense to come up with such information and never use it.
DV, the Steele Dossier is irrelevant. It was based off intel already being shared by the European foreign intelligence agencies with the US on Trump’s global . Sadly, your post reaps of decadence and elitism.
Trump is a de Rothschild asset, who runs the oligarchs……….who runs Putin. His phony trade war with China is to separate China for the US for the process of the global depeg. China is a key member that has to depeg. Once that is complete, the Rothschilds will control the world reserve currency again.
Like the blues. Its always about the delta.
I hope you are right about 2020. I am not sure the US is up to 8 years of Trump. Thomas Friedman wrote a column entitled China Deserves Donald Trump. I scrolled through 1300+ comments to say, what is to me a fact. Nobody deserves Trump .
A Joe Biden nomination = Trump’s 2nd term.
new deal dem
i hope you are right. but i am coming around to agree with Michael sorta:
enough people in this country love a fascist enough to turn the election, even if they have to steal it.
probably should not have said facist. useless political buzzword.
i meant people who love a “strongman” who gives them an excuse to blame their problems on “the other”, to hate, and to bully people even weaker than themselves.
well,
since i am the only one here, i’ll say “the factors that worked against Gore were not finer points of the economy stupid, but the fact(or) that Bush could seem more like “a man you’d rather have a beer with.”