Flying blind
Flying blind
The government shutdown is affecting some important economic indicators. All of the series published by the Census Bureau, including retail sales, manufacturers’ and wholesalers’ data, personal income and spending, new home sales and housing permits and starts, are not being published. It appears that GDP is not going to be published by the BEA either.
If the government shutdown continues — and a long shutdown, until there is widespread pain or an avoidable disaster (like a plane crash or widespread food-borne disease outbreak) looks like the most likely scenario for now — I will attempt serviceable work-arounds for at least some of these series.
For starters, retail sales was scheduled to be released this Wednesday. Almost certainly that isn’t going to happen, so on Wednesday I’ll publish a guesstimate that hopefully will at least get the direction correct, and capture some of the strength or weakness of that direction.
In a snark, I suggested under my own post that we have to wait to check BLS data but when I went to http://www.bls.gov, I got this good news:
‘The Department of Labor, including the Bureau of Labor Statistics, is funded through September 30, 2019. BLS is operating as usual and expects to follow its announced release schedule.’
Yes BEA and Census are down but somehow the WSJ tells us that 2018 was another record high for our bilateral trade deficit with China.
PGL:
I already saw the report on China. Business may have been running ahead when they were talking tariffs before the shutdown. Border Patrol has now changed their position on whether a wall works or not. Walls eventually have failed throughout history and no doubt Trump’s-Ego Wall will also. Most have been breached in one manner or another, sabotaged, or gone around. History is full of walls to keep unwanted hordes away from civilization.
> It appears that GDP is not going to be published by the BEA either.
Nonpublishing of GDP might actually be positive 😉 One less ” number racket” metric to deal with. Once a year publication would be more than enough.
Of course, there will be some deprivation among addicted to GDP neoliberal economists, but that’s the price to pay for the progress. All “cult of GDP” folk needs to be sent to the dust bin of history anyway, with their books and fake math (aka mathiness).
Subtracting from it 66% of financial sector contribution would also be a step in the right direction.
@run75441 January 15, 2019 1:49 pm
> Most have been breached in one manner or another, sabotaged, or gone around.
That’s an extremely naïve position. The function of the wall is not to block the access, but to slow it down and raise the cost of crossing for illegal immigrants.
As such it has some value. Also those neoliberal Dems are eager to finance foreign wars and programs like F35 without any hesitation.
This is something like one percent of F35 program cost (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-10/f-35-program-costs-jump-to-406-billion-in-new-pentagon-estimate) and has much higher security value (and is a defense not a tool for the wars for the expansion of neoliberal empire, which is too costly to maintain even in its current form)
What a bunch of fools. As Tucker Carlson aptly said
likbez:
What wall did you guard?
Can we please block the “likbez” troll? It’s droppings are stinking up the thread.
Joel:
His comments have no impact on me; although, they do clutter up AB from time to time.
Huh…I thought the Carlson quote was about this crop of republicans. Sort of a self-reflection or projection.