May personal spending returns to typical late cycle pattern The consumer continues to do okay. That is the message from personal income and spending as reported for May this morning. First of all, let’s compare the YoY% growth in real personal spending (blue) with real retail sales (red): For the last 50 years, during all […]
Excerpts from “The Effect of an Eight Hours’ Day on Wages and the Unemployed” by Charles Beardsley, Jr. (The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 9, No. 4 (Jul., 1895), pp. 450-459): The argument of workingmen that the general adoption of an eight hours’ day would raise wages and absorb the unemployed is well known. A […]
Immigrant Child Abuse Agency (ICAA) In my Take Back ICE, I wrote: I would hope the leaders of ICE would speak up and strongly object to what the Demagogue in Chief has done with their agency but to date they seem to be intimated from doing what is right. Some good news: The political backlash against U.S. […]
Drum honor role. I recently criticized Kevin Drum, so I am pleased to think especially highly of this post which I think you should read (also, as Drum says, always click the link especially if it is a vox.com link) My comment I am always impressed by your insights, but, that said, I think this […]
Refurbishing The Trump Economics Team Rumors are floating on the internet that NEC Chair Lawrence Kudlow is looking for new people to join the team advising President Trump on economics. Of course, the obvious place to start would be with him, a non-economist, although he has played one on TV a lot, who also has […]
The yield curve is already signaling a slowdown Throughout this expansion, I have had a sneaking suspicion that the yield curve (the difference in interest rates between short and long term bonds) would be the indicator most likely to fail. Originally that was because we are in a very non-inflationary period similar to that which […]