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May jobs report: excellent news on unemployment, underemployment, and wages

May jobs report: excellent news on unemployment, underemployment, and wages

HEADLINES:

  • +223,000 jobs added
  • U3 unemployment rate fell -0.1% from 3.9% to 3.8%
  • U6 underemployment rate fell -0.2% from 7.8% to 7.6%

Here are the headlines on wages and the braoder measures of underemployment:

Wages and participation rates

  • Not in Labor Force, but Want a Job Now:  up 68,000 from 5.115 million to 5.183 million
  • Part time for economic reasons: down -37,000 from 4.985 million to 4.948 million
  • Employment/population ratio ages 25-54:  unchanged at 79.2%
  • Average Weekly Earnings for Production and Nonsupervisory Personnel: rose $.07 from  $22.52 to $22.59, up +2.8% YoY. This is the highest nominal YoY gain for the entire expansion.  (Note: you may be reading different information about wages elsewhere. They are citing average wages for all private workers. I use wages for nonsupervisory personnel, to come closer to the situation for ordinary workers.)
Holding Trump accountable on manufacturing and mining jobs

 Trump specifically campaigned on bringing back manufacturing and mining jobs.  Is he keeping this promise?  

  • Manufacturing jobs rose 18,000 for an average of 22,000/month in the past year vs. the last seven years of Obama’s presidency in which an average of 10,300 manufacturing jobs were added each month.
  • Coal mining jobs rose 300 for an average of 110/month vs. the last seven years of Obama’s presidency in which an average of -300 jobs were lost each month

March was revised upward by 20,000. April was revised downward by -5,000, for a net change of 15,000.

The more leading numbers in the report tell us about where the economy is likely to be a few months from now. These were mixed.
  • the average manufacturing workweek declined -0.2 hours from 41.0 hours to 40.8 hours.  This is one of the 10 components of the LEI.
  • construction jobs increased by 25,000. YoY construction jobs are up 286,000.
  • temporary jobs decreased by -7800.
  • the number of people unemployed for 5 weeks or less decreased by -81,000 from 2,115,000 to 2,034,000.  This is a new post-recession low.

Rejoinder To Rauch’s Response To Me On The Happiness Curve Overhyped

Rejoinder To Rauch’s Response To Me On The Happiness Curve Overhyped

On May 15 I posted here on “Overhyping the Happiness Curve,” a critique of the recent book by Jonathan Rauch, The Happiness Curve: Why Life Gets Better After 50. After it was linked to on Marginal Revolution, author Jonathan Rauch wrote a Response to my post on May 25, which was also linked to on MR. I did not immediately reply as I was in Santa Cruz and did not have my copy of the book. I shall now comment on his reply.  He makes three main points.

The first is that he says I made a false dichotomy between unadjusted and adjusted studies of the age-happiness relation, and that I failed to recognize his discussion on pp. 69-75 of how factors besides age affect happiness.  Certainly he recognizes that other factors impact happiness, even as his focus is on the particular effect of age, which requires focusing on adjusted relations taking account of the impact of those other factors. He cites Blanchflower and Oswald (the apparent originators of the U-curve idea and among its strongest advocates) to the effect that going from age 20 to 45 reduces happiness by as much as a third of what becoming unemployed does, which is a lot.  Some other studies along such lines are cited.  Then a formulation from psychology is brought in that says that happiness is a function of one’s “set range” (basically one’s general happiness propensity), of circumstances not under one’s control, and of things under one’s control.  While he cites Martin Seligman, this argument has been widespread in psychology, with a common finding being that 50% is the set range, 10% is circumstances, and 40% is under one’s control, although Rauch does not mention this finding.  As it is, he proposes time as a separate variable, although offhand it would seem to fit in the category of those things we cannot control, “circumstances.”  (I have some serious questions about what is under our control and what is not, but let us leave that aside.)

This is all well and good, more or less, but it does not deal with the point I made that a quite a few of these other things that can impact happiness tend to be pushing one towards being happier in middle age than not, which can easily lead to a finding that age makes one unhappy in middle age when one pulls out the estimated effects of these other variables.  Again, we are talking about employment, income, marital status, health, and broader social relations, among others.  Rauch simply never notes this, although it is implicit in his contrasting a global finding that shows unadjusted happiness tending to gradually rise from 20 to 64 with a global finding adjusting for non-age factors that shows the U-curve bottoming at 50.  So, yes, he talks about how other factors are important, but he never addresses their own relationship with age, which is what makes this so difficult to parse out.

More evidence of increasing deflationary pressure on wages

More evidence of increasing deflationary pressure on wages

One of my pet peeves is that economics as a discipline needs to import the entirety of learning theory from psychology, not just parlor tricks like the endowment effect.  For example, learning from models.

To wit, once Jack Welch was successful in using a pay scheme at GE that ensured that a given percentage of employees would not get a raise in any given year, it was inevitable that other employers who adopt the idea until it spread throughout corporate America. And it not giving raises to a certain percentage of employees was successful, why not implement it across the board with *all* employees?

Monkey see, monkey do.

As I noted several weeks ago, even though we are at least closing in on full employment, the percentage of employers not raising wages at all has gone up in the last year:

And now, cue Atrios about how big companies, fat with their new tax cut $$$, aren’t planning on raising wages at all:

[E]xecutives of big U.S. companies suggest that the days of most people getting a pay raise are over …. [In] rare, candid and bracing talk from executives atop corporate America, made at a conference Thursday at the Dallas Fed[, t]he message [wa]s that Americans should stop waiting for across-the-board pay hikes coinciding with higher corporate profit …. to cash in, workers will need to shift to higher-skilled jobs that command more income.

….The moderator asked the panel whether there would be broad-based wage gains again. “It’s just not going to happen,” [Troy] Taylor, [CEO of the Coke franchise for Florida,] said. The gains would go mostly to technically-skilled employees, he said. As for a general raise? “Absolutely not in my business,” he said.

This is putting even more deflationary pressure on wages. Since the refinancing spigot has been turned off due to the end of the secular decline in interest rates, if wages don’t increase, exactly where do employers think increased demand is going to come from? Further, if companies freeze wages even during good times, what is going to happen when, inevitably, times turn bad?