The intensity of Fed rate hikes as a precursor to recessions Between 1931 and the mid-1950s, the yield curve never inverted, and yet there were 5 recessions (1938, 1945, 1948, 1950, and 1954). In particular, the 1938 “recession within the depression” was one of the worst of the 20th century. So in a low inflation […]

For the first time since the Great Recession my wage equation says average hourly earnings growth should be higher than the actual data shows.  Moreover, the fitted value is rising sharply.  Each of the three variables in the equation — the unemployment rate, capacity utilization and inflation expectations — is now pushing the fitted value […]

Lifted from comments on the post Our thoughts and opinions are with you, reader Mark Jamison writes: Comment: The filibuster is fundamentally undemocratic in a body that is already constructed undemocratically. The filibuster is an accident of history that has weaponized in the last twenty years. Yes, in particular circumstances it seems like a firewall […]

Via rjs newletter via Naked Capitalism: “Among its claims: The injection well ban violates the corporation’s rights as a “person” under the First, Fourth, and Fifth Amendments; the Equal Protection Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment; and the Contract Clause and Supremacy Clause of the U.S. Constitution.” Court Orders Nonprofit Law Firm to Pay $52,000 to […]

(Dan here…..lifted from an e-mail via iphone and I am tossing it out to the fray) by new deal democrat A few thoughts, hopefully from 30,000 feet, about the shutdown: 1. It looks like Schumer is getting rolled again. The reason the Bush tax cuts became permanent, even when the Dems held almost all the […]

Carbon footprint conundrum would be my title.  Personal involvement is important (macro is too but not the point here), but this list points to involvements well beyond many our imaginations to implement as individuals.  Personal decisions are much harder for the top activities mentioned, and from personal contacts not much on the radar of people’s […]

Via David Dayen comes Playboy sues Boing-Boing: You can read our motion here, and EFF’s press release here. We’ll have more to say after the judge issues his ruling. Here’s the introduction from our motion to dismiss: This lawsuit is frankly mystifying. Playboy’s theory of liability seems to be that it is illegal to link to material […]

In case you forgot, a neighbor of Senator Rand Paul was charged with assaulting him. And the reason? Rene Boucher was angry by seeing the 55-year-old senator stack brush near Boucher’s property. An attorney for Boucher did not immediately return a call seeking comment. Boucher faces a maximum of 10 years in prison if convicted, […]