This is a very complicated situation, and I think we do not have full information about all that is going on. However, while some of the protests have aimed at Rohani, increasingly some of it has been directed at the top leader, the Vali-e-faqi, or Supreme Jurisprudent, the unelected Ayatollah Ali Khameini, with reports of crowds chanting “Death to Khameini” and burning photos of his face. It also should be noted that while not nearly as deadly as the Green Movement demonstrations against apparent electoral fraud in 2009, they seem much more widespread across many cities in Iran, while the 2009 events were largely in Tehran and a few other largest cities.
It is important to keep in mind how power is held and distributed in Iran as one sees all kinds of characterizations about it, including declarations that Iran is a “dictatorship.” It is not, but it is true that the unelected leader (Khameini) has more power than an elected one (Rouhani). In particular, Khameini is the Commander-in-Chief of the military as well as being in charge of the judicial system based on Shia Sharia, as the proper translation of his official title as “Supreme Jurisprudent” indicates. While he does not directly control them, it is the clerical hierarchy under him, along with parts of the military, that control the bonyads that constitute probably more than a quarter of the economy, which also has indicative planning and a substantial state-owned sector. This latter part is more under the control of the elected president and his economics minister, as well as having more control over the Iranian central bank.
The “Poland problem” part involves those parts of the economy that can be influenced by Rouhani and his secular ministers and bureaucrats. Somewhat like in Poland, he can be partly blamed for not increasing redistribution or aid for the broader population. The part he does not control is the massive corruption tied to the bonyads and the clerically controlled parts of the economy. Long simmering unhappiness over this corruption appears to have finally exploded, although Rouhani and his government are also being blamed. I have no idea where this is going, but I fear that many more could end up dead than the two who have been killed so far reportedly.
I must make a comment about the incoherent response by President Trump. It looked to be true that a target of the protests has been increasing funding going to the military for Iran’s foreign adventures. But Trump supports the same thing in the US, even though he ran against such a policy. He is also moving to increase both inequality as well as “swampy” corruption, even though he also ran against those.
Of course the biggest problem from him has been his ongoing efforts to undo the JCPOA nuclear deal that led to what economic improvement Iran has experienced. He has resisted removing remaining sanctions (in place against human rights violations and missile development), thus aggravating the Iran economic problems, and he clearly wants to simply end the JCPOA and reimpose harsher sanctions. His proclaimed sympathy for protesting Iranian citizens looks hypocritical (along with the fact that he is blocking any Iranians wanting to escape to the US from doing so).
A final point many do not realize. Those who want to end the JCPOA have also called for a regime change end of the theocratic regime, which could happen. However, those pushing for this, many of whom thought the US should have given more active support to the failed Green Movement in 2009, do not realize that civilian nuclear power is very popular in Iran. The Green Movement supported civilian nuclear power, even as they did not support it military nuclear program. This was basically the position of Rouhani, who was not only elected on such a platform but reelected, even as Trump has ignored that and praised the truly dictatorial absolute monarchy of Saudi Arabia. If indeed the theocracy of Khameini were to be overthrown, Iran would almost certainly continue to pursue a civilian nuclear power program, if not a military one.
Barkley Rosser
Truly bizarre opening remark about Poland in light of Poland’s mass emigration crisis, collapse in the birth rate, mass tax evasion and grossly overstated GDP growth figures under the authoritarian system that was quaintly referred to as “Liberal Democracy”.
Still, shouldn’t be surprised as Rosser’s mate Jeffrey Sachs helped set the system up in 1989 and ensured no restitution of property stolen by Communist Poland for Jewish and Polish property heirs alike.
IVarsovian,
It is kind of funny that you show how the Poland problem comes about, with it being a combination of whom one is comparing oneself with along with exaggerating how bad things are. So, Poland’s net migration rate is -1.47/10,000 per year, which is barely a net outflow at all, ridiculous ro call it a “mass emigration crisis.” Birth rates have fallen, but they have in all the Eastern European transition economies, with Poland’s higher right now than in most of its neighbors, including Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Serbia, Croatia, and others. “Collapse” looks rto be overstating that one. There is less tax evasion than in most of its neighbors, and less distortion of its GDP data.
Hard fact is it has had the best GDP growth since the end of communist rule of any of its neighbors, making it indeed “the poster boy of transition.” But the problem, aside from politicians lying or exaggerating about all this (with suckers like you believing the propaganda), is that now Poles compare themselves with western Europeans, not their neighbors, so feel poor and left behind and must move west to make the big money.
Regarding authoritarianism, now you are seriously lying, Dave. Since 1989 Poland has been a pretty well functioning liberal democracy, but now it is run by racist nationalist crypto-fascists who are restricting free press and independent judiciary. You make yourself look like one of them when you spout this kind of garbage, and it looks like you are one of them.
As for Sachs, he was an adviser, not the person who put the new system in. That was Leszek Balcerowicz, who I knew before he did it and before I knew Jeff Sachs. You need to get more in touch with reality, Dave. You come off like one of these fools who gets all their information from Fox News, if not even worse.
Trump’s tweets were written in Riyadh!
Iran’s overstated protest: WSJ, RAND, and Trump show the “revised neocon” lust for breaking up another country for Israel and the Gulf royals.
First word from authorities about outside influence and memories of the Tehran bombing flamed the masses.
http://www.cnn.com/2017/06/07/middleeast/iran-parliament-shooting/index.html
The protests were, like the bombing, more bin Salman bringing the “war to Iran. With help from the CIA and Israelis.
Glenn,
Which part of the protests are “half-fake,” the initial mostly economics issues ones happening in proo-Khameini strongholds such as Meshad and Qom (and reportedly supported by Khameini to get at Rouhani), or the more recent ones that have become anti-Khameini and the wholw clerical regime, which have spread all over Iran, including to small towns?
ilsm,
Trump does not have coherent position, as I think I tried to show in my post, and outsiders may have played some sort of role in this, But the widespread nature of the demonstrations (now facing some “pro-government” whatever that means) counter demonstrations, makes it look to me that the protests, however disjointed and also somewhat incoherent, have been mostly spontaneous and genuine.
There’s nothing like a statistician who doesn’t know his stats!
But I see you are a man with no problems in life.
Two million Poles emigrated. Not a problem, says Rosser. Massive amounts of property stolen by the Communists not returned to the rightful owners. Not a problem, says Rosser. Because it was stolen by the right people. Massive amounts of tax evasion OKed by the Establishment – no problem. Poland became a world leading exporter of cellphones – errr … only on paper. To get bogus tax refunds of mouthwatering proportions. Again – no problem. PUTIN illegally exported huge quantities of liquid fuel by tanker – openly – across the borders in an oral deal with Tusk. So, what’s wrong with breaking the law together with Putin? No problem.
So please quit saying stuff which is obviously wrong. And do remember that your stance is conditioned on everyone believing that Poles absolutely love voting for poverty and backwardness.
And please buy yourself a calculator.
BR,
I have only www sources. The right wing media and Hillary were all on “evil Iran” riffs. The WSJ, RAND and NY Post drooling over a coup and the widespread appeals to neocon authority reminded me of how US intel was “selling” nation breaking from 2001 through 2014.
Here is one run down:
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/02/iran-protest-map-of-the-worst-clashes-is-telling-experts-something-very-interesting.html
Incoherent would smell of MbS, and the Emirs none of whom can get an operation right.
Trump’s line about spending $ in Yemen, Syria and Lebanon instead of taking care of Iranians is straight out of MbS anti Iran blither mills, which Trump is at that level.
ilsm,
Your map and the commentary are missing important points, emphasized to me earlier today by a leading Iranian economist whom I ran intoa at the ASSA/AEA meetings now in Philadelphia. Not much demonstrating in Tehran, certainly not compared to 2009. However map missed major demos in Ahwaz, the southwest province with a lot of Iranian Arabs, very unhappy about Iranian activity in Yemen and Syria. Also,a lot of demos in Kurdish area and other minority zones.
Barkley,
Your reference to SW Iran confirms the Iranian government statements about outside sedition, US and Saudi have been perpetrating ‘terror’ in that region. Are there reports of bombing bus loads of civilians this past week? There is a small minority in that region worked on by outside terrorists.
SW Iran has received al Qaeda activity in the area of Chabahar linked to bin Salman.
US would partition Syria [‘stability’ lie war making] for Kurds but not Iraq and Turkey! Now Iran!
Iran is far more ‘monolithic’ than royalty in Saudi Arabia, and the rest of the GCC, who must pander to Wahabbist terrorists.
I have a problem with ex pats’ they usually have agendas.
ilsm,
I think highly likely US/Saudi input into Ahwaz Arab area, where apparently there has been unreported unrest for some time (and it was not on that map). I would not be surprised if CIA supporting those demonstrating in Kurdish region also. I am more skeptical about any of that in Mashad or Qom, the latter the very heart f the hardline Shia clerical establishment.
I see no reason to believe Iran is “more monolithic” than KSA. The splits between Rouhani and Khameini factions are pretty serious, and also Iran has much more ethnic and religious diversity than does KSA, which has a much smaller population.
Something the two ironicallyi share is that in their repective most important oil producing areas is where they have religious minorities. So, in Iran it is Sunni Areabs in Ahwaz (who during the Shah’s rule supported the communist Tudeh party), while in KSA the eastern province is where the oppressed Shia of KSA live, although they ethnically Arabs, not Persians.
We have been talking past each other.
My observation is Trump (pandering to those breaking up Syria, slaughtering Yemen, and who cannot go into S Lebanon) were looking for a coup. Outside the Kurds, Ahwazi (Arabs 2% of Iran population) and some in the Baluch area both the secular and cleric Irani poles would line up to oppose the Great Satans and the GCC.
NATO [siding with breaking up Syria but keeping Iraq 1/3 Sunni!) is weak in the upper Gulf, Ahwaz is not Kosovo there are too few to pull off an Arab spring against stronger social bonds in than Libya, Syria and Iraq.
While Iraqi Shi’a learned how their Sunni minorities act the past several years………….
US is all for breaking up countries its masters do not like.
Juan Cole has several links to Iran experts claiming little outside influence on demos in core parts of Iran. It was pro-Khameni and pro-Ahmadenijad groups pushing these against Rouhani, but then they got out of control as it were. As it is, we may have seen the peak of the demonstrations with the regime maybe putting this genie back in the bottle. They were aided massively in this by Trump and pals shouting so loudly their support for the demonstraters. I read a conservative columnist praising Trump for his “action” as compared to the silence of Obama in 2009. Given that Trump tweeting may be helping to end the demonstrations early and thus shutting off people getting killed, well, maybe Obama should have loudly supported the 2009 demos, which would have led to fewer getting killed as it might have ended the demonstrations sooner as Trump seems to be achieving with his tweets supporting them. Oh yes, the ironies here are quite rampant.
Barkley:
I will have to go read what Juan has said. Been a bit since I wandered over there.
BTW, for all the talk of inflation and general economic problems, inflation is substantially down from the period when sanctions were fully in place. It was 40% then and now down to about 10%. Unemployment remains quite high at 12, but the economy grew 16% in 2016 in the immediate aftermath of the JCPOA adoption. It slowed to about 4% in 2017 as Trump moved to reimpose and tighten sanctions.