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Open thread Nov. 28, 2017

Dan Crawford | November 28, 2017 8:47 am

Tags: open thread Comments (7) | Digg Facebook Twitter |
7 Comments
  • JimH says:
    November 28, 2017 at 12:48 pm

    On 20 November 2017 I left this as an end to my comment about drug use:
    “This was never about race, it was about joblessness, hopelessness, desperation. Those were more commonly found in the black community in the late 1960s and 1970s. Today they are in all communities.

    This equal opportunity decay was brought to America by Global Free Trade!”
    See:http://angrybearblog.com/2017/11/crack-v-opioids-and-violence-v-racism.html

    Then today I found a graph at the NY Times:
    See: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/06/05/upshot/opioid-epidemic-drug-overdose-deaths-are-rising-faster-than-ever.html

    This graph shows a dramatic upward change in the slope of the line tracking “Drug overdose deaths, 1980 to 2016”. That dramatic change takes place in about 1990.

    By about the mid 1980s this country was very concerned about our trade deficit with Japan. Japan imposed voluntary quotas on itself and in the late 1980s it began to move some auto production to the US.

    By 1990 Global Free Trade was ramping up and so were deaths by drug overdose.

    Look at the dramatic changes of slope in that graph showing deaths by drug overdoses. (Especially at 1990 and 2000)

  • coberly says:
    November 28, 2017 at 1:05 pm

    Jim

    i suspect it’s mostly coincidence. At least more likely “caused” by the decline of civilization and loss of hope and meaning for more people. The pfree trade feeds the greed we substitute for for having a real life, and the opioid use corresponds first (i think) simply with the increasing availability of the drugs (greed of drug companies?) and the loss of hope and meaning for more people, now affecting the near-rich as well as the hopeless poor.

  • JimH says:
    November 28, 2017 at 1:06 pm

    Here is another good graph about deaths by drug overdoses.
    See: https://www.cdc.gov/drugoverdose/data/index.html

    Notice that by about 2010 deaths due to “Commonly Prescribed Opioids” had reached a sort of plateau. But the deaths from Heroin and “Other synthetic Opioids” have continued to increase. (Rapidly)

    It seems to me that the worst problem is no longer prescribed opioids, it is the drugs brought on the street.

    And the deaths from overdose due to something other than “Commonly Prescribed Opioids” are probably going to continue to grow rapidly. Because we have a long experience with the “Drug War” and it has not been effective. (To say the least.)

  • JimH says:
    November 28, 2017 at 10:09 pm

    I overlaid the graph from the New York Times article with a linear grid. The graph was linear so I collected some information from it. This data obviously lacks some precision.

    Deaths due to drug overdose
    Years________ Deaths per year _____ Increase in Deaths per year
    1980 __________ 6,200
    1990 __________ 8,500 ______________ 2,300
    2000 _________ 17,500 ______________ 9,000
    2007 _________ 36,200 ______________ 18,700
    2009 _________ 37,200 ______________ 1,000
    2012 _________ 41,500 ______________ 4,300
    2016 _________ 59,000 ______________ 17,500
    Note: The month for the year is January

    Does despair set in as people are running up too much debt? Look at the periods between 2000 to 2007 and 2012 to 2016

  • coberly says:
    November 28, 2017 at 10:38 pm

    Jim H

    your point would be more convincing if you calculated increase in deaths per year by dividing by the actual number of years between each of your deaths per year data points.

  • JimH says:
    November 29, 2017 at 10:16 am

    Yes that is an improvement.

    Years_____Deaths __________Increase in_______Average yearly increase
    ________ per year________Deaths per year________over the period
    1980______ 6,200
    1990______ 8,500 ___________ 2,300 ______________ 230
    2000_____ 17,500 ___________ 9,000 ______________ 900
    2007_____ 36,200 __________ 18,700 ______________ 2671
    2009_____ 37,200 ___________ 1,000 ______________ 500
    2012_____ 41,500 ___________ 4,300 ______________ 1433
    2016_____ 64,000 __________ 17,500 ______________ 4375

    Thanks Coberly.

  • JimH says:
    November 29, 2017 at 10:43 am

    Should never have made that one quick change. The 64,000 death rate was for 2016 so the year in the column should have been 2017, the increase changed, and average should have been lower because of the additional year.

    Deaths due to drug overdose
    Years_____Deaths __________Increase in_______Average yearly increase
    ________ per year________Deaths per year________over the period
    1980______ 6,200
    1990______ 8,500 ___________ 2,300 ______________ 230
    2000_____ 17,500 ___________ 9,000 ______________ 900
    2007_____ 36,200 __________ 18,700 ______________ 2671
    2009_____ 37,200 ___________ 1,000 ______________ 500
    2012_____ 41,500 ___________ 4,300 ______________ 1433
    2017_____ 64,000 __________ 22,500 ______________ 4500
    Note: The month for the year is January

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