“The Original Underclass” I have written on upward mobility several times at AB. This article goes along similar lines of what I have been saying. If you are already upper class, the chances of you dropping down to the lowest level are slim to none. If you are in that first quintile of income, the […]

Of course some MSM journalists are hard working professionals. The Washington Post’s David A. Fahrenthold has worked very hard trying to find evidence, any evidence, of Donald Trump giving his own money away. Farenthold and Rosalind S. Helderman have a genuinely wonderful examination of alleged quid pro quo in which the Clinton’s did something for […]

US political journalism just receive the coup de grace and the Beutler did it. Brian Buetler wrote “Hillary Clinton’s Relationship With the Press Is Broken—and It Can’t Be Fixed.” This doesn’t sound very enthusiastic, but I think the article shows that the problem is much much worse than the title suggests. Beutler asks whose fault […]

In what would be a stunning reversal on an issue central to his candidacy, Donald Trump floated a possible process to allow undocumented immigrants to remain in America in a town hall that aired Wednesday. “No citizenship,” Trump told Fox News’ Sean Hannity in an interview taped Tuesday afternoon in Austin, Texas. “Let me go […]

Which of these models would you trust to evaluate inflation? (quarterly data since 1957) Phillip’s curve… core inflation plotted against unemployment. (link) My model plotting core inflation against corporate profit rates minus a mix of short & long-term nominal rates… (link) Who in their right mind would still talk about the Phillip’s curve after seeing […]

The Phillip’s curve is obsolete. Inflation does not reliably depend on employment. So what other model could we depend on? This one showing core inflation plotted against an aggregate corporate profit rate minus a mix of nominal rates. (FRED data link) Mixed nominal rate = 0.56*Fed rate + 0.44*10-year treasury Here we have quarterly data […]

In the wake of Hillary Clinton’s recent fundraising along the East and West coasts, the Republican National Committee has released a new web ad claiming the Democratic presidential nominee is out of touch with “everyday Americans.” The 19-second video, titled “Hillary Clinton’s Liberal Elite Summer Tour,” begins with an image of an airplane bearing Clinton’s logo. A […]

by Mike Kimel Explaining Trump’s Appeal, Part 3 In a recent post, I showed that since 1950 a. foreign born population correlates to slower job creation b. it is becoming increasingly difficult for people to find a job in the US I want to try to tie both those facts, and explain them. But first, […]