Open thread July 8, 2016 Dan Crawford | July 8, 2016 8:44 am Tags: open thread Comments (6) | Digg Facebook Twitter |
Warren pointed to a report which discusses the lower longevity of lower paid workers,
I am sympathetic, but Figure B-7 (p 161) says maximum wages are achieved at age 44 and that is so counter to what I ‘know’, that I have to wonder. The description (p141) suggests to me that they are including people that I would exclude. It appears to me that someone who worked for 10 years from age 30 to age 40 and then stopped for any reason would be included in calculating that average wage for 62 year olds. Even if they died at age 41.
Dying early would be a cause of low wages. If they have not controlled for that, then their conclusion that low wages cause early death would be overstated.
Did I read it wrong?
Yes, you did. On page 130, it says, “These estimates of a low earnings level are based on reports in the EPUF file for all males in the population who reported nonzero Social-Security-covered earnings in the year. They are therefore unaffected by the subsequent mortality experience of workers in each cohort.”
If they had non-zero reported earnings in the year of the EPUF file, they were alive at least part of that year.
I was already pretty much going to vote Green this year, but this might create an interesting national dynamic. The progressive Democrat on the green ticket, the semi-moderate Republican governors on the LIbertarian ticket, and a lunatic on the Republican side and Hillary with the D beside her name. Anything goes.
I don’t think Sanders will actually take up the offer.
“They are therefore unaffected by the subsequent mortality experience of workers in each cohort.”
That is not what was being graphed in Figure B-7. And it does not control for the effect of reduced earnings prior to death. I will have to read again.
“That is not what was being graphed in Figure B-7.”
Yes, it is. Please read the description of Figure B-7 given on page 141, where they say, “For workers of each gender the Social Security earnings records were then divided between those of low earners, as defined immediately above….”
These figures only represent those people who paid into Social Security THAT YEAR. So unless some illegal immigrant was using their Social Security number, they were still alive.