Dan here…Jan points us to a response to ‘hiatus’ of climate change.
by Jan Galkowski (reposted from Hypergeometric)
Lovejoy provides conclusive statistical evidence, free of use of climate models, that the so-called “hiatus” in global land surface warming is due to natural variability and is decidedlynot a suspension of global climate change. See S. Lovejoy, “Return periods of global climate fluctuations and the pause”, Geophysical Research Letters, 41, 2014, 4704–4710,http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2014GL060478. Notice the comment:
By lumping all sources of natural variability together (i.e., internal and external) and by using the CO2 forcing as a surrogate for all anthropogenic effects, it is possible to avoid assumptions about the radiative effects of aerosols, cloud radiation feedbacks, and other difficult issues.