I posted all I can say publicly at Skippy. And even that wouldn’t work at a family blog like this one.
The rest are jokes that I am told–undoubtedly correctly, but lapsed traders are difficult to retrain*–are “too soon.”
The Phantom Scribbler came out of her retirement (first post in more than eleven months), though, so you should Go Read Her.
As for the other Issue of the Day, I repeat what I said chez Duy (whose summary here is concise and informative):
If I told you just those three “Stylized Facts”:1. Average of -0.1
2. Median of 1.0
3. Positive:Negative ratio is 5:2would you (a) immediately start talking about the “clear lack of growth”? or (b) even more immediately say, “There must be an outlier in the data. What’s the kurtosis?I don’t believe I know anyone who would do (a).
If I were teaching Econ 301 and someone presented R&R’s data–see the Konczal link above–and came to their conclusion, they would be lucky to be told to do the assignment over.
*What’s the difference between a bond and a bond trader? A bond matures.