Romney to Choose Ryan ?
This seems to me to be politically insane. Ryan is the guy who wanted to end Medicare and replace it with a fundamentally different program based on vouchers whose value would not increase at the same rate as health care costs. The one concession to the clearly expressed will of the vast majority of the US was to call the new program Medicare. This tricked no one except for a couple of fact checkers. This was political fratricide, since it lead to a Democrat winning a special election in upstate New York.
Why did Romney do it ? It is as if he is still running for the nomination. I think it is not satisfactory to argue that he has no spine, balls, guts or other internal organs and so does what right wing Republicans tell him to do. For one thing, that just shifts the question to why are they attempting political suicide (look I’d really prefer Bernie Sanders in the White House to Barack Obama but I’m not stupid enough to vote for him in a Presidential primary, because I don’t want a Republican in the White House).
I think of all of the apparent dog wistling about how Obama doesn’t understand America. I suspect that it might not be cynical or strategic after all. What if they really think that most people in the USA agree with them ? If they think that most people in the US believe that obtaining great wealth is proof that one is a benefactor to humanity, so criticism of, say top bankers is unamerican, then they would think that Obama is out of touch.
If Republicans really think that what they need is an ultraconservative who is willing (eager even) to make ultraconservative policy proposals, then they don’t understand America. If they are living in their Foxbubble dream world, then they might sincerely think that Obama is out of touch. He is out of touch with their fantasy America.
For one thing it isn’t just Republican politicians. I recall sincerely shocked comments on an earlier post here in which I linked to the Gallup polls going back to 1992 showing that depending on the poll solid to huge majorities of respondents say that rich people and corporations pay less than their fair share of taxes. This fact hid in plain sight for decades. Almost all commentators agreed that Americans reject calls to soak the rich as class warfare (even those who lamented this perceived view) until the standard Gallup poll was supplemented by numerous* polls showing that most US adults wanted higher taxes on the rich. Somehow elite opinion about puglic opinion managed to be totally wrong.
Similarly, the VSPs all agree that Socialsecurityandmedicare are a huge problem (left of center Michael Kinsley called it our worst problem — evidently worse than cancer). A huge majority of US adults oppose any cuts to Social Security or Medicare. Following the views of the majority is considered unstatesmanlike cheating so thta true criticisms of plans to eliminate Medicare (I use the work with its conventional meaning just as I use all words) are rated to be outrageous lies. The outrage is against the VSP villager consensus.
But back to the Republicans. Somehow they don’t seem to have noticed that they blew a hard to blow opportunity to win the Senate too in 2010 by nominating extremists (some of whom won). They either don’t know about the polls showing vast majorities disagreeing with them or they are sure that if they just had a chance to explain their views to the public, the public would be convinced.
This reminds me of vague memories of the ultra-left in the very early 70s (and really vague memories of the late 60s). The new left was convinced that they spoke for The People even though the vast majority of, you know, people in the USA absolutely disagreed with them. They thought that their problem was that the establishment kept their arguments from the people. But they were kids. Also the establishment did keep their views from most of the people. Somehow conservative Republicans have managed to convince themselves that someone is suppressing their arguments when they are covered by the mainstream media and on top of that have their own TV network plust a gigantic think tank/propaganda mill budget.
Of course I can’t avoid the fear that I am totally out of touch. But I mean look at the polls.
Well it is Ryan officially. But surprisingly I don’t think attacking him on Social Security should be the primary line of attack. Instead a more effective one is a focus on the tax provisions of the Ryan Roadmap, or as I called it in this post from two years ago “Tax Freedom for Billionaires”
http://www.angrybearblog.com/2010/08/real-ryan-roadmap-tax-freedom-for.html
The key is on the Tax Reform page of the plan as outlined at Ryan’s Committee web-site:
http://roadmap.republicans.budget.house.gov/issues/issue/?IssueID=8514
Among the provisions of the Roadmap are these as striking as they are bold:
Promotes saving by eliminating taxes on interest, capital gains, and dividends; also eliminates the death tax.
That is Ryan would shelter ALL major sources of billionaires’ wealth creation and retention from ANY tax. And shelter their heirs as well. I mean even now only a tiny handful of CEO’s have regular compensation packages valued at $10 million a year. It would take a 100 years in the executive suite to ‘earn’ your first billion at that rate. Instead they build wealth by retaining and/or realizing gains from capital. But once you eliminate direct gains via interest and dividends and retained/realized gains by eliminating capital gains and the form of deferred capital gains that is really what the estate tax does you have reduced the LEGAL effective rate of billionaires’ federal taxes to ZERO.
Who exactly is the “moocher” and “looter” in THAT scenario?
Until the catholics got on him Ryan from his youth was big on Atlas Shrugged:
“There are two novels that can transform a bookish 14-year-kld’s life: The Lord of the Rings and Atlas Shrugged. One is a childish daydream that can lead to an emotionally stunted, socially crippled adulthood in which large chunks of the day are spent inventing ways to make real life more like a fantasy novel. The other is a book about orcs.”
ilsm
If Romney loses, he now can share blame with Ryan and the far-right. If Romney wins, he has Ryan on the inside supporting his policy proposals, not in the House where Ryan would vigorously pursue his Ayn Rand Roadmap as what the voters have chosen. As for helping Romney on election day, the VP candidate seldom matters–in this case, Ryan is likely to both gain and lose a few votes for Romney. Beyond those thoughts, I recommend Chait’s article from yesterday at http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2012/08/romney-may-have-no-choice-but-to-pick-paul-ryan.html
here are the original Ryan plan projections, via bill mcbride:
http://cr4re.com/RyanPlanProjections.pdf
they have since disappeared elsewhere..
& my aggregation on the original Ryan plan here at angry bear:
http://www.angrybearblog.com/2011/04/guest-post-rjs-aggregator-ryan-plan.html
In two parts, Pt. 1
Bruce,
When a guy comes to a fight with both arms tied behind his back it is never acceptable to attack him from only one side. Hit him on both sides of his head and he goes down sooner and with a louder thud. Yes, Ryan’s tax proposals are abvsurdly biased towards the wealthiest Americans, but his proposals for both Medicare and repayment of the SS Trust Fund are equally devastating to the working class. He’s drawn up a plan of attack which includes all significant fronts as targets for his abuse. Rysn on the Trust Fund:
A common reaction to the question of what to do about the problem with Social Security has unfortunately been, “What problem?” These individuals often claim that the Social Security trust fund will remain solvent for another 21 years, at which point the government could theoretically cover the shortfall by raising taxes. Others downplay whether any changes to Social Security will be necessary – they claim that sustained economic growth could take care of the problem all by itself.
“First, any value in the balances in the Social Security trust fund is derived from dubious government accounting. The trust fund is not a real savings account. From 1984 to 2009, the trust fund collected more in Social Security taxes than it paid out in Social Security benefits. But the government borrowed all of these surpluses and spent them on other government programs unrelated to Social Security. The trust fund holds Treasury securities, but the ability to redeem these securities is completely dependent on the Treasury’s ability to raise money through taxes or borrowing.”
A basic truth. When one borrows monety one is expected to pay that money back to the lender. In this case the Trust Fund that supports all of those who paid in more than was necessary in FICA for the past four decades. Ryan’s concerns for the viability of the Trust Fund are touching. He suggests that the Cat Food Commission recommendations are a good place to start, but only those that relate to Social Security are a good idea. Those that relate to raising some tax revenues are “debatable”. To wit.
“While certain details of the Commission’s Social Security proposals, particularly on the tax side, are of debatable merit, the Commission undoubtedly made positive steps forward on bipartisan solutions to strengthen Social Security. The House-passed budget builds upon the Commission’s work, forcing action to solve this pressing problem by requiring the President to put forward specific ideas on fixing Social Security.”
And what does the boy genious of high finance suggest as a qauick fix to the “problem”? Why not pit the working poor against the rest of the working class? That’s progressive isn’t it? What he doesn’t note is that Social Security already has a progressive bgenefits structure. Pitting the poor against slightly less than poor is truly a low road approach to “fixing” any revenue problem, but that appears to be Ryan’s path.
“The Commission suggested a more progressive benefit structure, with benefits for higher income workers growing more slowly than those of workers with lower incomes who are more valuable to economic shocks in retirement. It also recommended reforms that take accounts of increases in longevity, to arrest the demographic problems that are undermining Social Security’s finances.”
Part 2.
What Ryan doesn’t say is why it is that the Trust Fund Treasury debt is a burden, but other Treasury debt is left out of the conversation. He wants to eliminate taxes on interest income, like the kind very wealthy people receive from the Treasuries they may hold in their portfolios.
And god forbid that the top marginal rate should go up. Ryan has it on good authority that raising taxes on the wealthiest people would be disastrous. It is truly amazing that so often “most economists” agree with Ryan’s point of view, and he hasn’t even had any training in economics or finance.
“Most economists agree that raising marginal tax rates that high would create a significant drag on economic growth, job creation, productivity and wages. This nation cannot fix its retirement-security system by leaving young families with nothing to save.”
Undoubtedly Paul Ryan has an intuitive understanding of what’s right and what is wrong with our economy and the nation’s budget. It’s very unfortunate that that intuition seems only to appreciate the needs of the wealthiest Americans above all else.
Romney probably took a poll of his donors. Win or lose, he won’t be paying for his run.
of course if Romney wins and Ryan is VP then Ryan is a heartbeat from the Presidency.
not that it matters much. some are saying that Obama will pick Boles of Boles-Simpson for Tresury.
When Mitt made the announcement of Ryan as his VP choice he again stuck his foot in his mouth and said, “…the next President of the..” He did a few minutes later correct himself. Freud would have had a field day with that slip. If a Romney/Ryan pairing gets elected to the Executive office I’d strongly recommend to Mitt that he keep a low profile and make sure to keep out of those parts of the country where Ryan is regarded as a budgetary expert.
Boles as the Dems VP choice? Is Obama really that clueless regarding the focus of his strength with the electorate. How many more people does he want to alienate?
Frankly, I’m getting tired of voting for the lesser of serious evils.
Jack
given that I can’t spell Treasury it is understandable that you would mistake it for Vice President. but these days i think Treasury has more power.
Romney’s selection of Paul Ryan is a brilliant choice, which can already be seen working.
For 95% of the electorate, Ryan is going to come across as a bright, earnest, attractive young fellow who is praised by his colleagues and the media. About 5% of the voters will have some familiarity with Ryan’s budget ideas, and will enjoy attacks made on him.
Liberal screaming and shouting directed toward Ryan will not change a whole lot of voters’ opinions. However, the attention and money spent on Ryan will be attention and money NOT spent on attacking Mitt Romney — who ought to be the central figure in negative Democratic campaigning.
shupp
kind of like ike picking Nixon.
Shupp except picking on Ryan’s Budget and Roadmap IS picking on Romney. Specifically his taxes. Because under the full Roadmap Romney would legally have paid no taxes AT ALL. And neither would any of his Trustafarian sons and grandchildren.
Ryan is on record proposing the elimination of capital gains taxes, taxes on interest and dividends, and on estates. Or basically the Mitt Romney Tax Freedom Act.
Or do you really think an attack on the ticket focused on “These guys want to cut taxes on the rich while slashing away at entitlements” is somehow going to smack Ryan and just magically give Romney a pass. Erich Son of Erich already made it clear what Romney’s ALLIES are going to do: make Romney OWN the Ryan Budget. And the Left and the Obama campaign are going to jump on board, at least on the tax cuts piece.
Some people will do anything to change the conversation (and not release their tax returns).
This was a recognition most have already decided and it will be most about getting out the vote. I really didn’t know what Romney’s policies were since he really doesn’t seem to have any, so picking Ryan clarifies that greatly.
I think Bruce is a little naive if he expects the voters to know or care what Ryan’s plans are. The people will vote their emotions, and they are being told, among other things, that Romney will set them free from government, and Ryan will “save” Social Security.
And if that won’t do it, the voting machines will.
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TPM reports on polling which shows that Ryan can make Wisconsin competitive for Romney. Similar polling showed that Portman could not have the same effect in Ohio. I haven’t seen any polling on Rubio’s impact in Florida. Sad for Mitt, the guy who may be able to swing his state comes from a state with few (10) electoral votes.
That can’t be Ryan’s only perceived virtue, but it may be a substantial factor. I’d guess that Romney’s folks see his campaign as stuck between GOTV efforts among GOP voters and raising Romney’s favorables (lowering his negatives) with swing voters. It’s hard to do both, but Ryan’s gooey persona may help sway moderates who don’t know him, and conservatives know him and like him. If this is the thinking among Romney’s people, then they are a cynical lot, but that ain’t new to politics.