Wisconsin Judicial Election
Wisconsin Supreme Court election update
They seem to have gone to sleep over in Wisconsin. I did too but now I’m awake.
The current state of the supreme court election is that 3,596 of 3,630 precincts have reported and the incumbent conservative Walker ally is Prosser is ahead of the challenger Kloppenberg by 733,074 to 732489, that is by 585 votes. The precincts which haven’t reported are almost all in counties which went heavily for Kloppenberg.
I calculated a crude predictin by extrapolation assuming that votes in precincts which haven’t reported will be equal to the county average over precincts which have reported. This requires two approximations, first that the fraction won by Prosser is about the same and second that there are about the same number of votes in each precinct withing a county. Importantly, it is reported that some precincts which have “reported” haven’t reported absentee ballots.
Anyway, I extrapolate that Kloppenberg will gain 1857.13 votes on Prosser and so win by 1,272 votes which is about 0.09% of the extrapolated total.
I confidently predict a recount.
Plain text version of spreadsheet after the jump.
Update: hat tip rjs
twitter via google: seungminkim RT @HotlineReid: WI Supreme Court results as of 10:43a.m. ET: Kloppenburg 738368, Prosser 738228. Difference of 140 votes (.000009%)Twitter – 1 minute ago 10:51 AM
norep Prosser Kloppen norep/rep Pr-KL
6 Ashland 1037 2504 0.2727 -400.09
2 Crawfor 1689 2428 0.08 -59.12
1 Dane 48627 133513 0,004048583 -343.67
2 Dunn 3790 4649 0,052631579 -45.21
1 Jefferson 12860 9365 0,025 87.38
1 Juneau 2337 2546 0,035714286 -7.46
12 Milwauki 95129 125090 0,025 -758.51
8 Sauk 6166 7625 0,258064516 -376.52
1 Taylor 3602 2266 0,034482759 46.07
34 so far 733074 732489 pred p-k -1,857.13
Well, as of 0848 with 99% of the vote counted, Prosser leads by a slight margin. Robert’s prediction appears wrong. More importantly, this may be an important message for the upcoming elections. One conservative pundit puts it this way:
“But the unions have a bigger problem. Many gave Prosser little chance of holding his seat in this off-year, otherwise sleepy election, as unions organized fiercely to unseat him before the state Supreme Court could hear the challenge to Scott Walker’s law. Given the usual lack of turnout for April elections in off years, the organizing power of the unions should have been overwhelming, and Prosser should have been toast even in less-progressive areas of the state. Instead, Wisconsin voters thundered to the polls to support Prosser, and Kloppenburg turned out to do poorly outside of Dane and Milwaukee counties — and even in Milwaukee, Kloppenburg led by just a 57/43 margin.
What should have been a slam-dunk if Walker’s proposal was really as extreme and disaffecting as unions claim turned out to be an even split. Given their power and the investment of time and money by the unions, this is an eye-opening stumble.”
This conservative AB commenter would make this statement: The Democrats have a big problem for the 2012 elections. The more Dems attack the Tea Party the more active the Tea party members and their fellow conservatives become. It may be a losing political strategy, even more so than in 2010.
The silent majority has found its voice and is wielding its power, and that voice ans power is the Tea Party. Remember this key word in that description, MAJORITY, and that is what frightens both parties. The Dems more so than the Repubs.
Let the games, err recounts, begin!
You learn something new every day. I didn’t even realize that Kool Aid had a tea flavor!
As a longtime resident and voter in Wisconsin, I can assure you CoRev that what you write is utter nonsense. I also must take issue with Robert’s analysis concerning at least Milwaukee County, because of the three suburbs where the votes are missing at least 2 went for Prosser. You can not use overall Milwaukee County margins in the suburbs. The turnout in the City and County of Milwaukee was very low or we would not be talking about a close race. On the other hand turnout was very high in Waukesha County–perhaps the most conservative in the state being a bastion of old money, small businesses and white flight during the 60’s 70’s and 80’s. Ozaukee County is somewhat similar except that it tends to have better educated folks than Waukesha–they are conservative, but not teabaggers. Madison–Dane County– did have very heavy turnout which certainly helped Klopenburg, but she also got very strong support from Western Wisconsin–the first GOP Senator to be recalled is from La Crosse– and given the numbers Robert sets forth she held her own in solidly Republican Counties. Wisconsin is and has always been a pretty liberal state. The difference in elections is that liberals seldom vote–2006 and 2008 were aberations. 2006 because there was an anti gay marriage initiative on the ballot, 2008 because Obama inspired them–wrongly as it turned out and hence the GOP victories in 2010. As best I can tell the liberals did remarkably well in turning out the vote in a nonpartisan election although they were admittedly helped by Prosser running perhaps the worst campaign by an incumbent Supreme Court Justice in modern history. If Klopenburg comes up short it will be because she did not get enough black and hispanic votes out of the City of Milwaukee.
Terry said: “ I can assure you CoRev that what you write is utter nonsense.” Care to elucidate? some of what you said appears to confirm what I said: “On the other hand turnout was very high in Waukesha County–perhaps the most conservative in the state being a bastion of old money, small businesses and white flight during the 60’s 70’s and 80’s. Ozaukee County is somewhat similar except that it tends to have better educated folks than Waukesha–they are conservative, but not teabaggers.”
Other than the pejorative, tea bagger, Ozaukee county went 72 to 28% for Prosser. Maybe Terry can tell us whether there was a high turnout.
I see it this way : Klopenburg wins after a recount (look into who the WI AG is)
As the dust settles.. the public union employess (still paying dues) end up, as they already had, giving into the original demands, and the unions are tied-up under the light of public scrutiny for ANYthing they try to gain back .. ala, SEE we TOLD you so ! .. and union-backed politicians in the future will face scrutiny as well, when it comes to public employee contracts.
Remaining liberal politicians will have the cloud of their desertion haunting them… and as time passes; union members will start wondering what they’re getting in return for their dues..
An ugly display by all parties.. but the conservatives score the long-term victory.
Robert – I agree with your prediction of a recount. I also confidently predict at least one trunkload of “lost” ballets poping up sometime. And those boxes will lean for Klopenburg.
What I find fascinating is that after all the union sturm and drung about recalls etc, that this is the best they can do in a statewide election that they made all about the recent legislation and Gov. Walker (win or lose).
This is the best the Unions and Dems can do in Wisconsin???
Really? Think about it.
Islam will change
Thanks Terry. I had read someting on the web about rpedominantly Republican suburbs of Milwauki, but I thought they were in different counties. As you note, one of my gross approximations is the assumption that precincts in the same county are the same. You have reason to predict that Prosser will do better than I predicted. In particular my calculation gives the largest gain for Klopenberg in Milwauki county. Setting that to zero (or reversing the sign of the Milwauki county contribution) she still wins.
Thanks for the inights based on being a long term resident.
twitter via google: seungminkim RT @HotlineReid: WI Supreme Court results as of 10:43 a.m. ET: Kloppenburg 738368, Prosser 738228. Difference of 140 votes (.000009%)Twitter – 1 minute ago
The question will be settled by the courts not the Attorney General. Since there will be an even number of supreme court justices considering the case and there is no way to compromise, it could be very tricky. I’d guess it will be based on, you know, the ballots.
I don’t see why you predict a conservative long-term victory. I think you are assuming that conservatives have the right policy proposals and the truth will out. I note that if a majority of members of a union thought they weren’t getting their money’s worth for their dues, then they could derecognize the union. I see absolutely no evidence supporting your confident predictions about union members’ opinions about their unions or about public opinion.
No worries.. no argument, as it is just my opinion.. As for members and the return on their dues.. I said, “as time passes” … The union isn’t gonna have much to give them, in the srutiny-wake of this battle. Union contracts will no longer just, “happen”, behind the scenes. People are paying attention, now..
“I’d guess it will be based on, you know, the ballots.”
Exactly.. I’ll admit to not knowing if it works the same in WI, as MI … I’m talking about election certification that “waits” for enough ballots to be uncovered ; )
MI = MN
Are you looking for the silver lining? Prior to Walker’s War Prosser looked to be any easy victor. Keeping in mind Wisconsin voter’s obvious Republican leanings, with a Repub governor and legislature, it would seem to be the beginning of a sea change. The recall efforts will provide more information.
On a lighter Wisconsin note, while browsing around to read more election return news from Wisconsin I noted two interesting items. First, and a bit on the dull side, news reports of election results in two important races made almost no mention of the candidates’ political affiliation. I thought that odd, but I’m not sure of the purpose or effect.
Far more interesting, and putting Wisconsin within the norm of American politics is this item.
Recall-targeted GOP senator’s wife meets protesters on front lawn, tells them ‘he’s living in Madison with his mistress now’
But protesters outside the Hopper house this week in Fond du Lac were met by his wife who reportedly came out and told them: Hopper no longer lives there, but with his 25-year-old mistress in Madison.”No confirmation on whether the divorcing wife signed that petition to recall Hopper who represents Wisconsin Senate District 18.
“Recall target, Sen. Randy Hopper (R-Fond du Lac), talks a good game about family values. Hopper has been a close ally with Gov. Scott Walker whose billionaire-funded attacks on Wisconsin families is drawing international attention and widespread condemnation.”
I guess they do more than eat cheese and play football in good old Wisconsin.
“The precincts which haven’t reported are almost all in counties which went heavily for Kloppenberg.”
The Chicago way: we don’t care who counts for them as long as we count last.
What nobody has mentioned is that Prosser was endorest by the state’s largest paper that is sited in Milwaukee. This gave Prosser something of an edge in Milwaukee which is more liberal and thus made his work easier. Yet Prosser is still behind.
Silver lining? Not really. The vote will get a recount (if its not automatic) and probably end up in court. Its well within the margin wear fraud will effect the outcome. I expect Klopenburg to win, even though she’s a wacko from all I’ve read on her – and why Prosser was a shoe-in prior to the late festivities, becuase she has the ‘D’ label.
My point is that Wisconsin is a reliably blue state and I’m very surprised that, since the D party and unions went all out, this wasn’t a blow-out for Klopenburg. Now I may be wrong about Wisconsin if so please up date me, but this wasn’t a repudiation of Walker at all.
I also find it sleazy for a judge to run on a platform to overturn a legislative initiative reguardless of its legality. Sure doesn’t give anyone any confidence in her impartiality to judge cases does it?
As a side note, now that the D Senators have returned why don’t they just declare a quorum and vote on the full bill and make this all moot?
And I think we can all agree that Hopper should get recalled reguardless of party….
Islam will change
I have not seen the turnout figures for Ozaukee County. Overall the turnout was 35% or almost double the typical turnout for spring judicial races and as noted turnout was not high in the City of Milwaukee which is most non white part of the state and usually votes 70% or more Democratic. The utter nonsense is the idea that this was a weak effort by the unions or reflects a huge teabagger surge. Prosser should have won this thing by 15% regardless of Walker. That he did not was due in no small part to his public pronouncements that he was a teabagger conservative and that he would “compliment ” Walker. For whatever reasons he decided to hitch his star to the GOP resurgence in November 2010 and thereby gave an unknown, not really very attractive, Madison prosecuter who got 28% of the vote in the February primary, a chance which pending the recount she won. If the race says anything, it is a warning to the Republicans that the teabaggers might be an important part of cobbling together a coalition, but do not drink their Kool-aid. Walker is finding that out and is likely to lose at least 2 of his current 6 seat majority in the Senate and now may very well face a hostile Supreme Court until he can be recalled next year–I actually do not think that he will be recalled, because I expect that while he is plainly not the sharpest tool in the shed, he has advisers who will tell him that he has to scale it back. Prosser plainly regrets appealing to teabaggers and I suspect that future GOP politicians will be much more guarded in courting their support. Interestingly enough, that was how Fighting Bob LaFollette and the Progressive Movement got started in Wisconsin. The crazies took over the Republican Party and LaFollette, who was a Republican branched off. In the 1950’s the Republicans had complete control of the State–most would be RINOs today-but Tailgunner Joe and the John Birch Society so disgusted the populace that the Democrats were able to become a force in the state. So yeah, both your conservative pundit’s take and your comment are IMHO utter nonsense.
I do not think the Journal-Sentinel really carries much weight. It is a totally schizophrenic paper combining the editorial boards of the liberal Journal with the conservative Sentinel. As a result nobody gives a rat’s behind about the endorsements. Consevatives think the paper is communist and liberals think it is facist and in truth all it seems to do is say “on the one hand and then on the other hand”. Talk radio is much more influential and it ranges from far right to extreme right. Most listeners are suburbanites and except for my suburb affectionately known as the People’s Republic of Shorewood, the suburbs range from moderately Republican to all Republican. In the main they exist because they have seperate school systems. Most pay as much or more property taxes as the City of Milwaukee, but their children do not have to go to school with children of color–unless the child is a star athlete.
The final count Prosser – 739,886 and Kloppenburg – 740,090, a difference of 204 votes.
Terry said: “The utter nonsense is the idea that this was a weak effort by the unions or reflects a huge teabagger surge. Prosser should have won this thing by 15% regardless of Walker. ” Using a historical approach (references to 50s, or even as late as 2010) to explain a contemporary massively active political attack effort is interesting, but lacks credibility. As you pointed out, voter turn out was nearly double a normal off year election, and that reinforces the amount of interest and emotion related to this election which underlies my point re: union/tea party efforts. The emotional edge was with the union/Dem election machine, but in the end it was countered with equal effort from the tea party/republican effort.
So, as a referendum on the Governor Walker budget legislation, it ends up a wash. Certainly not what the union/Dem pols wished.
what was that word you emphasized? Oh yeah. Majority.
The conservative bloggers are clearly trying to set the field as somehow in favor of Kloppenberg and Democrats. Wait a minute! The spring election always favors Republican candidates as a higher percentage of Republicans vote in this usually lightly attended election. Then, there is the advantage to a a sitting Justice and the fact that a sitting Justice has been defeated only three times in the history of the state. Throw in Prossor’s advantage of having a history of making connections across the state as a legislator and Republican leader for many years versus the political newcommer and nonpolitcian Kloppenberg. Take all this together and it is a miracle that Kloppenburg came close let alone being the likely winner. It must be recognized that this is not business as usual in Wisconsin Supreme Court elections and the difference is the Walker factor. For someone to infer that this election somehow reveals Democratic Party or Union weakness is ludicrous. Any election held in the fall, say Walker and newly elected Republican legislator recall elections, is bound to yield even higher vote totals for Democrats and anti Walker candidates. Republicans should be afraid, very afraid.
Well, ummmm. Like, she won. He lost. Here’s the linkie. http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/06/usa-wisconsin-election-idUSN0621658320110406
Hey, well, there you go. NancyO
Regardless of the final winner, Prosser picked up more than a half-million votes, and Kloppenberg added over 620,000, since the primary six weeks ago. Only 408,000 votes were cast 6 weeks ago, but about 1,480,000 today. That’s remarkable. Regardless of outcome, good work by WI voters.
I have to conclude that recent events in WI had a very strong impact in Kloppenberg’s favor. Prosser beat Kloppenberg 55-25 percent in that primary (she came in second) and outspent her this time by a about a million bucks. I didn’t think the executive-legislative war would (or even should) have quite this large of an impact on Prosser. And no mistress that I’ve heard about. But there it is.
Meanwhile Fortune magazine had a slightly different take on the election and aftermath:
According to the Brennan Center, approximately $3.5 million in special interest money was spent on the race – a truly remarkable sum for a judicial election where the return of the incumbent is a forgone conclusion before the race even begins.
The big money also brought the first sign of trouble for Walker and the GOP majorities in both houses of the state legislature.
While some $1.4 million of special interest money was spent in support of the unknown challenger by the unions and other left -leaning groups, the lion’s share of the cash dedicated to the election came from Koch Brothers financed organizations and the right-wing Club For Growth on behalf of of Justice Prosser.
It’s not every day that the right-wing uber-rich can outspend the Democrats by nearly 2-1 and find themselves in a close election. That had to get some GOP stomachs churning.
When Election Day arrived, those GOP churning tummies blossomed into full blown heartburn as voters turned out record numbers for what is typically a very low priority election. Big turn out is never a good thing for the GOP.”
Uh Oh, MN redux??? Prosser now leads the race in WI. http://hotair.com/archives/2011/04/07/oh-my-prosser-now-leads-in-wisconsin-after-winnebago-county-adds-244-net-votes-to-total/
From the article: ” Apparently Madison — Kloppenburg’s stronghold — is re-canvassing as I write this, so Prosser’s lead might be short-lived.” Accordingly, my MN redux question.
“… it appears the votes for the City of Brookfield were not included in the initial counts that the county provided to the Associate Press, which has been maintaining a statewide tally of votes.
The revised figures show Prosser with 11,008 more votes than were initally recorded for him, while Kloppenburg picked up 3,426 more votes. The net result is an additional 7,582 votes for the incumbent.”
I am sad that with the Waukesha County revelation my state has now reached new uncharacteristic lows of incompetence or worse.
My recollection is that in the MN recount there were not large swings in vote totals. Does anyone have the facts on that?
“Don’t Mourn. Organize.” – Joe Hill
There are still recalls to be fought and won.