Thought-Experiment of the Day

It’s no secret I’m not a fan of the birth-death adjustment to the employment serieses: not from a necessary belief that they’re biased, but rather because they give the lie to the illusion of accurate monthly data.

But imagine for the moment that there had been no adjustment before the January data release.  The headline number for January might well have been north of 400,000, making the past three months even more impressive (from a headline perspective only, but still…) in terms of job creation.

Would that change anyone’s opinion of the timing and/or need for tightening?  (See also my post earlier today with the graphic borrowed from The Big Picture marking a growth comparison with 2003-2004.)