Senatorial Electoral Predictions

Robert Waldmann

I made the following predictions on September 15 (the predictions are down in the comment thread).

I guess R gain 5-6 (which is huge given the fact that this election is 6 years after 2004).

To go way out on a limb, I guess R pickups in ND, AR, IN
PA & IL and 0 D pickups. You will notice that compared to polls I am predicting poor perfromance [SIC TSW*] for tea partiers (so lose NV and Co).

I didn’t see Feingold’s loss in Wisconsin coming, but there was almost no polling before September 15 and almost no discussion (I admit Cook had moved it to toss up).

I made 8 specific predictions of which 8 were correct.

In the post, I speculated that the narrative about 2010 might be that Tea Partiers ruined Republicans chances to take the Senate. That is asserted from time to time, but the narrative is, of course, Democrats Shellacked — Republicans take house gaining more seats than in 1994. But see I used the weasel word “might.” I very explicitly went against the polls on two races (NV and CO) and was right on both.