by Mike Kimel There seems to be something inherent in human nature that leads to frequent predictions of the end of the world. Usually, those predictions turn out to be wrong and then require some form of backpedaling. As an example, folks who use(d) a statistical package called Shazam might remember the two quotes that […]

Mark Thoma expresses his exasperation with the tax cut slogans of lawyers and journalists: The disappointing part is that the press still lets them get away with this. At best, the press generally says something like “some economists claim this isn’t true,” implying there’s a debate about this issue — that some credible economists think […]

by Tom aka Rusty Rustbelt Health Care: Reinhardt thinks about (health) accounting Uwe Reinhardt (Princeton) is one of the world’s preeminent health care economists. In a NYT piece he makes an interesting attempt to define a new “health care accounting.” ( and see his earlier pieces mentioned in the article) Reinhardt explains and critiques the […]

Robert Waldmann Paul Krugman October 23 This isn’t original, although I don’t know who deserves the credit. So, here it is: in effect, QE2 amounts to a decision by the US government to shorten the maturity of its outstanding debt, paying off long-term bonds while borrowing short-term. [skip] It’s just as if Treasury sold 3-month […]

Robert Waldmann Nate Silver, like essentially all election handycappers, ignores internal polls — polls financed by one of the candidates or by the party of one of the candidates. Unusally, he explained why noting that even if the polls are unbiased there is extreme publication bias as campaigns release the polls if and only if […]

by Linda Beale Democrats touting tax cuts crossposted with Ataxingmatter The New York Times ran a story this week about the Obama tax cuts–the point? while the Tea Partiers rage against the Obama administration because they want more tax cuts, they have missed the fact of substantial tax cuts under the Obama administration. See Michael […]

I present an update on aggregate demand using the highest frequency of economic data available, US Treasury tax receipts. Tax receipts serve as a proxy for nominal aggregate demand via a nominal indicator of private payroll growth. US daily Treasury tax receipts are improving. (This chart has been modified since its original posting to enable […]

I have (vainly, I suspect, in both senses of the phrase), tried to start a meme on Twitter, #ifTimGeithnerrantheEmergencyRoom. “The defibrillator would only charge to 30 to prevent scarring; anything more and you’re on your own” probably isn’t winning friends or influencing people, but it does make me feel better. It also makes me look […]

Robert Waldmann is pleased to note that he was right and that Paul Krugman and Joeseph Stiglitz were wrongggg. They claimed that PPIP was a huge giveaway, because purchases of toxic assets would be 85% financed by no-recourse loans from the FDIC. I noted that this financing would only be available if the FDIC (not […]