The finding causing all the consernation is this: ” Over the interval 1979 to 2009, model-projected temperature trends are two to four times larger than observed trends in both the lower and mid-troposphere and the differences are statistically significant at the 99% level.”
That is a comparison of the model ensemble outputs to the satellite data.
If this paper holds up over time it will prove the Global Warming Models (GCMs – General Circulation Models) to be wrong. Maybe very wrong.
Along with its findings being controversial, it’s methodolgy is also. They used econometric statistical tools to calculate the model outputs to observed temperature differences. Accordingly, it has been funny watching the economic and climatology communities try to absorb that new use.
So, let me repeat, if this paper holds up, a major tipping point lowering validity will be achieved for the climate change/global warming community.
” Over the interval 1979 to 2009, model-projected temperature trends are two to four times larger than observed trends in both the lower and mid-troposphere and the differences are statistically significant at the 99% level.”
You are a heretic, worthy only of sublimation.
How can you possibly question the conclusion that it is not a global winter, (see Time magazine 1971) as espoused by the anscestors of the current prophets, but warming that will do us in.
Thank God in Heaven that we will all be subsumed by the eruption of Yellowstone or the reversal of the earth’s polarity before we drown in the rising seas.
CoRev, The modeling is not what concerns me. I’m more alarmed that a portion of Greenland has recently fallen into the sea. Also, glacial tracts across the world seem to be disappearing. Get out of the modeling rut for a moment and give us all an explanation of all this melting ice.
August 10 – Bloomberg (Jungmin Hong and Saeromi Shin): “China’s banking regulator ordered banks to transfer off-balance-sheet loans onto their books and make provisions for those that may default… The assets linked to wealth management products provided by trust companies must be shifted onto banks’ balance sheets by the end of 2011″
I wish our regulators had the power and were capable of making such s smart decision. If China can avert a large part of the fallout from an inevitable credit contraction, it will be a testament to what an important role regulation can play when its not copted by the players in the game.
A couple of months ago you were talking about actual temperature data and an anticipated shift to below trend line. I haven’t checked data sources, but simple observation of land temeratures all over the northern hemisphere suggests that hasn’t happenend. This is the hottest year on record in Russia, contributing to their wildfire situations. Can you update us on that data?
Models being inaccurate is pretty much irrelevant – it just means the models need refinement. They are still directionally correct, and this is still the hottest year EVER!
Meanwhile, the habitat of the armadillo has moved north a few hundred miles in the past few decades. This is not a unique event, as warming effects the location of habitat borders. As Jack pointed out, glaciers are disappearing. Weather extremes are becomming more commonplace – a resultant of cimate change.
if this paper holds up, a major tipping point lowering validity will be achieved for the climate change/global warming community.
Jack & JzB, yes! It’s warming. We are still recovering from the Little Ice Age and the past glaciation. But, when you pull the covers off all the catastrophic predictions you will find they are based upon these model outputs. Since they are being found to be 2 to 4 times too high, that pretty much may invalidate the catastrophic predictions.
JzB, as for the warm spots in the NH we are finding cold spots, the West coast, being one of them. Plus others in Siberia. It is after all just weather. So this statement: “… land temeratures all over the northern hemisphere suggests…” is just another exaggeration of the reality that you have been led to believe. Seen coverage of those cool spots???? Take a look at the below anamoly map for Russia.
There is usually a 2-6 month lag between the end of the warming impacts from an el Nino to the full impacts of a la Nina cooling. Pacific Surface Sea Temps (SSTs) are plummeting in the Pacific basin where we see el Ninos. So just wait. It’s coming.
JzB said: “Weather extremes are becomming more commonplace – a resultant of cimate change.” Actually, there is no proof that extremes are increasing. Indeed we seem to be in a period where the number and peaks and valleys are diminishing. Yes, however, they are caused by change, or more correctly by the impacts of differences where sea/air currents collide or mesh. Weather, don’cha know?
As to the importance of this report, we must wait to see how it actually proves and is used in the future. There has been an increasing clamor for the models to be validated. They are so bad that they are used by the IPCC as an ensemble to average their outputs for estimating. Not a way to instill confidence in their usage/outputs.
Jack, glaciers calve. It’s normal. This specific glacier hasn’t actually lost anymore ice than normal, even after this big berg was calved. Glaciers calve when either they are melted by warm sea water below their fronts, or they become so large that their weights can no longer be supported by the floating fronts. Dunno, about this one, but it may a little of both. That’s why the comment about this being about normal loss for this glacier has some merit.
There’s been much ballyhooing re: the Arctic Sea Ice this year, but the gains were higher and later than normal. The losses (also early and now less than normal) look to be on a diminishing trend earlier than normal. Right now the temps in the Arctic are lower than average below freezing, and ice loss is slowing. This may end up as being the shortest melt season in many years. Again, still to be determined by reality for another few weeks.
JzB, let’s start with the “And there’s this from those lying pincos at NASA.” Sea level is a “what if” animation and not “what is.” Furthermore the Arctic Sea Ice animation stops at the low in 2007. Today’s extent is much closer to 2005, and the years since 07 have seen each get larger than the previous. After looking at just two, I was totally unimpresssed.
I’m not sure what your point is re: the Russian short term weather issue. It’s just weather. Is weather caused by climate? No! Did you even read the article? It said: “”This weather is very unusual but there are always extremes every year,” said Andrew Watson from the University of East Anglia’s Environmental Studies. ” We can never say that weather in a single year is unequivocal evidence of climate change, if you get many years of extreme weather then that can point to climate change.””
You do realize that you have provided no evidence for your assertion that contradicts mine. Which was: Actually, there is no proof that extremes are increasing.
An interesting week in Global Warming.
Ross McKitrick, Stephen McIntyre and Chad Herman have authored a “peer reviewed” paper titled: ‘ Panel and Multivariate Methods for Tests of
Trend Equivalence in Climate Data Series ‘ and can be found here: http://rossmckitrick.weebly.com/uploads/4/8/0/8/4808045/mmh_asl2010.pdf
The finding causing all the consernation is this: ” Over the interval 1979 to 2009, model-projected temperature trends are two to four times larger than observed trends in both the lower and mid-troposphere and the differences are statistically significant at the 99% level.”
That is a comparison of the model ensemble outputs to the satellite data.
If this paper holds up over time it will prove the Global Warming Models (GCMs – General Circulation Models) to be wrong. Maybe very wrong.
Along with its findings being controversial, it’s methodolgy is also. They used econometric statistical tools to calculate the model outputs to observed temperature differences. Accordingly, it has been funny watching the economic and climatology communities try to absorb that new use.
So, let me repeat, if this paper holds up, a major tipping point lowering validity will be achieved for the climate change/global warming community.
Blog reactions can be found in the following links:
http://noconsensus.wordpress.com/2010/08/07/time-to-fix-the-thermometers/#more-9923
http://rankexploits.com/musings/2010/mck-mci-and-hermann-congratulations/
http://climateaudit.org/2010/08/13/ross-on-panel-regressions/
http://climateaudit.org/2010/08/11/within-group-and-between-group-variance/
http://climateaudit.org/2010/08/09/mckitrick-et-al-2010-accepted-by-atmos-sci-lett/
And for a historical look at the Paper’s background:
http://climateaudit.org/2010/08/10/conflicted-reviewers-distort-literature/
As always…..Good Work!
Oh CoRev
” Over the interval 1979 to 2009, model-projected temperature trends are two to four times larger than observed trends in both the lower and mid-troposphere and the differences are statistically significant at the 99% level.”
You are a heretic, worthy only of sublimation.
How can you possibly question the conclusion that it is not a global winter, (see Time magazine 1971) as espoused by the anscestors of the current prophets, but warming that will do us in.
Thank God in Heaven that we will all be subsumed by the eruption of Yellowstone or the reversal of the earth’s polarity before we drown in the rising seas.
You filthy finclerink !
CoRev,
The modeling is not what concerns me. I’m more alarmed that a portion of Greenland has recently fallen into the sea. Also, glacial tracts across the world seem to be disappearing. Get out of the modeling rut for a moment and give us all an explanation of all this melting ice.
August 10 – Bloomberg (Jungmin Hong and Saeromi Shin): “China’s banking regulator ordered banks to transfer off-balance-sheet loans onto their books and make provisions for those that may default… The assets linked to wealth management products provided by trust companies must be shifted onto banks’ balance sheets by the end of 2011″
I wish our regulators had the power and were capable of making such s smart decision. If China can avert a large part of the fallout from an inevitable credit contraction, it will be a testament to what an important role regulation can play when its not copted by the players in the game.
CoRev –
A couple of months ago you were talking about actual temperature data and an anticipated shift to below trend line. I haven’t checked data sources, but simple observation of land temeratures all over the northern hemisphere suggests that hasn’t happenend. This is the hottest year on record in Russia, contributing to their wildfire situations. Can you update us on that data?
Models being inaccurate is pretty much irrelevant – it just means the models need refinement. They are still directionally correct, and this is still the hottest year EVER!
Meanwhile, the habitat of the armadillo has moved north a few hundred miles in the past few decades. This is not a unique event, as warming effects the location of habitat borders. As Jack pointed out, glaciers are disappearing. Weather extremes are becomming more commonplace – a resultant of cimate change.
if this paper holds up, a major tipping point lowering validity will be achieved for the climate change/global warming community.
Sorry, amigo. This is mere wishful thinking.
Cheers!
JzB
Jack & JzB, yes! It’s warming. We are still recovering from the Little Ice Age and the past glaciation. But, when you pull the covers off all the catastrophic predictions you will find they are based upon these model outputs. Since they are being found to be 2 to 4 times too high, that pretty much may invalidate the catastrophic predictions.
JzB, as for the warm spots in the NH we are finding cold spots, the West coast, being one of them. Plus others in Siberia. It is after all just weather. So this statement: “… land temeratures all over the northern hemisphere suggests…” is just another exaggeration of the reality that you have been led to believe. Seen coverage of those cool spots???? Take a look at the below anamoly map for Russia.
There is usually a 2-6 month lag between the end of the warming impacts from an el Nino to the full impacts of a la Nina cooling. Pacific Surface Sea Temps (SSTs) are plummeting in the Pacific basin where we see el Ninos. So just wait. It’s coming.
JzB said: “Weather extremes are becomming more commonplace – a resultant of cimate change.” Actually, there is no proof that extremes are increasing. Indeed we seem to be in a period where the number and peaks and valleys are diminishing. Yes, however, they are caused by change, or more correctly by the impacts of differences where sea/air currents collide or mesh. Weather, don’cha know?
As to the importance of this report, we must wait to see how it actually proves and is used in the future. There has been an increasing clamor for the models to be validated. They are so bad that they are used by the IPCC as an ensemble to average their outputs for estimating. Not a way to instill confidence in their usage/outputs.
Jack, glaciers calve. It’s normal. This specific glacier hasn’t actually lost anymore ice than normal, even after this big berg was calved. Glaciers calve when either they are melted by warm sea water below their fronts, or they become so large that their weights can no longer be supported by the floating fronts. Dunno, about this one, but it may a little of both. That’s why the comment about this being about normal loss for this glacier has some merit.
There’s been much ballyhooing re: the Arctic Sea Ice this year, but the gains were higher and later than normal. The losses (also early and now less than normal) look to be on a diminishing trend earlier than normal. Right now the temps in the Arctic are lower than average below freezing, and ice loss is slowing. This may end up as being the shortest melt season in many years. Again, still to be determined by reality for another few weeks.
Actually, there is no proof that extremes are increasing.
Right.
http://www.universetoday.com/70974/what-is-causing-weather-extremes-in-2010/
And there’s this from those lying pincos at NASA.
http://climate.nasa.gov/ClimateTimeMachine/climateTimeMachine.cfm
Meanwhile, the armadillos are just confused.
Cheers!
JzB
JzB, let’s start with the “And there’s this from those lying pincos at NASA.” Sea level is a “what if” animation and not “what is.” Furthermore the Arctic Sea Ice animation stops at the low in 2007. Today’s extent is much closer to 2005, and the years since 07 have seen each get larger than the previous. After looking at just two, I was totally unimpresssed.
I’m not sure what your point is re: the Russian short term weather issue. It’s just weather. Is weather caused by climate? No! Did you even read the article? It said: “”This weather is very unusual but there are always extremes every year,” said Andrew Watson from the University of East Anglia’s Environmental Studies. ” We can never say that weather in a single year is unequivocal evidence of climate change, if you get many years of extreme weather then that can point to climate change.””
It’s still weather! Is weather caused by climate? NO!
Here’s another scientist’s take on the Russian weather: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/08/14/pielke-sr-on-heat-wave-in-russia/
You do realize that you have provided no evidence for your assertion that contradicts mine. Which was: Actually, there is no proof that extremes are increasing.