When Presidents must look like they perform well
All the fuss still ignores main driver of popularity says Steve Korniak at Salon:
That’s because, for all the talk about whether he gave away too much on healthcare or hasn’t reacted angrily enough to the oil spill, Obama (like every president) is a prisoner to the economy. As long as the unemployment rate remains high, no amount of “magic” will restore Obama’s robust January 2009 poll numbers. (At this point, only some kind of international or terrorist incident, which might produce a rally-around-the-flag effect, could do so.)
It is absolutely not a coincidence that the basic themes of Blow’s column were also sounded by pundits in the first half of Ronald Reagan’s first term. Reagan, after all, was the last president to deal with double-digit unemployment. (His presidency also began with broad popularity, high expectations, and a souring economy — sound familiar?) At virtually this same point in his first term (August 1982), Reagan’s approval rating dipped to 41 percent. It was seen as a stunning decline for a man who had been elected in a 44-state landslide less than two years earlier. The unemployment rate when that survey was conducted was 9.8 percent, and trending upward. Today, it is 9.7 percent, with no substantial drop on the immediate horizon.
None of this is to say that Obama hasn’t made mistakes, possibly big mistakes, in his presidency. But they are not the reason why his poll numbers are where they are. Mass opinion doesn’t respond to the details of policy, no matter how important they might be. It responds to the economy. If the economy turns around, Obama’s numbers will, too. If it doesn’t, they won’t. There’s really nothing magical about it.
I believe voters overall do not allow nuance to impact their votes…it is a forced choice game anyway, which may or may not match up to personal thinking or feeling. One of those major drivers is perceived performance and expectation of the ‘economy’ personally or for people we know…examples of the focus on ‘economics’ are everywhere, even if couched in other terms.
I do not remember the reign of St. Ronnie with any fondness and in a lot of ways for me personally, it was a relative black hole economically during what should have been a pretty good time in terms of my career. That 13.75% 30 year fixed mortgage I got in 1983 did not help. I also do not recall what happened in the midterms in 1982, but my recollection is that throughout his reign, the Democrats wanted the country to succeed, even if it meant Reagan and then Bush the Smarter stayed in power. I am increasingly distressed that the GOP, which has simply flat out refused to be of any assistance to Obama on anything of substance has managed to hoodwink some Democrats and enough voters that the deficit is the single most important issue facing the country and therefore we are on the verge of repeating FDR’s 1937 mistake. That will mean that the GOP will end up with both houses of Congress and the White House in 2012 and the class war will be over and most of us will be reduced to something akin to feudal serfdom. It is extremely fashionable to blame the duration of the Great Depression on the Hawley-Smoot tariff law. I really think its impact has been overblown by free trade advocates, but there is simply no question that FDR tanked the economy again in 1937 by cutting back on spending and raising taxes—I have been convinced here that raising taxes had little impact—yet we are all set to do it again, as I understand is England. Just a really sort of depressing turn of events.
yes, people may not get the details, but they certainly understand the ideology that is behind the choices made by the president. Thus, as people see the economy remain bad for them, they see the choices made to fix it and understand whether the choice was from an ideology they function under and thus voted based on or is from an ideology they disagree with.
To sell Obama’s numbers as simply economic condition is an insult to the population. They are not that ignorant of ideology.
Example: Selling out the public option all they while professing to be for it.
Some observations on Obama:
1, He needs to sit General McChrystal down, fire him and demand his retirement papers. Otherwise, Obama will have no credibility.
2. Just listened to the health care speech, two observations:
a) Obama has to fire his speech writers and stop giving classroom lectures disguised as speeches
b) Obama either does not understand the short term consequences of his health care plan, or he is trying to shape reality by talking
He’s trying to shape reality by talking. It’s all we do in this nation now.
str,
1) Should fire him publically, or have Petreous do so. McChrystal will retire and go away. But Obama needs to make it very clear that civilians run the military and he’s the boss.
2) Obama is trying to shape reality by talking – reality is laughing….
Islam will change
As we have seen on many posts here at AB – Obama is totally responsible for the current economic conditions. We will soon get an entire book (pre-order today at the top!) that specifically makes the case that the President, and ONLY the President, is responsible for the economy.
So its all Obama’s fault….
Islam will change
Terry,
“I am increasingly distressed that the GOP, which has simply flat out refused to be of any assistance to Obama on anything of substance has managed to hoodwink some Democrats and enough voters that the deficit is the single most important issue facing the country and therefore we are on the verge of repeating FDR’s 1937 mistake.”
The Democrats had majorities to do whatever they chose. They simply used the media to make it appear that the Republicans were somehow holding them back, because they needed some Republicans to participate to hide or run cover for their Anti-Capitalist redistributive agenda. Any idea that Republicans deserve any responsiblity since the 2008 election is laughable. The public understands what the Democrats are attempting to do, and are roundly rejecting it.
Deficits don’t matter when you have growth. There is no growth on the horizon, and the American people understand that the Democrat agenda is going to be devastating down the road, and will cause the economy to shrink much more in the future…so the public has made the calculation that deficits do matter, and here you are blaming Republicans before they even get power back, that they will cause even worse damage by controlling the spending and possibly rolling back some of the policy that is so damaging….It’s pathetic!
rdan,
I agree with Korniak. If US economy starts growing again and unemployment starts to truely come down back to Bush levels he will be re-elected. If we flounder where we are right now, the R’s will regain the Presidency barring picking a nut-case (which the Rs are quite capable of doing). If we go into a double-dip recession and things get worse, unemployment climbs and GDP shrinks going into the 2012 election, the R’s could nominate Palin and win.
But as has been pointed out at AB the economy is totally in Obama’s hands. He is a master of his fate. Since he was suppossed to be the new FDR I’m still looking for that full employment 6+% GDP growth…and a pony
Islam will change
Buff,
Agree, although I would direct Adm Mullins do the deed.
I would suggest Mullins do an article 31 to make sure the remarks don’t sink to contemptous utterances against the office.
In which case no retirement.
Remember the AF flag officer in USAFE who made comments about Clinton at a dining in?
ilsm will not change
ilsm,
Article 31 is to much. You do that and all hell breaks lose, most of which only makes Obama look bad. Don’t use a sledge hammer when all you need is a can opener. Just retire him. Adm Mullins is an interesting choice, but in any case he needs to go. I beleive Truman set the precedant…
Utter nonsense. The Democrats were not unified. The Republicans were. In many cases, that meant the Democrats could not overcome filibusters even before Kennedy died. I realize, Jimi, that you have repeated this “Democrats have a majority so they can do whatever they want” business often enough, but that doesn’ t make it true. Lots of Democrats lack spine, but that is not the whole story. Republicans have filibustered and threatened filibuster more often under Obama than ever before in history.
This story you are telling about Democrats having utter control and imply deciding not to use it is, necessarily, either a reflection of ignorance or dishonesty. Having read your posts here for a quite some time, I am still unable to tell which ot those two explanations is the right one.
KHarris,
“Republicans have filibustered and threatened filibuster more often under Obama than ever before in history.”
And they have the majority support of the popuilation in doing so. So in blaming Republicans your blaming the American People. ITDOESNOTADDUP!
“This story you are telling about Democrats having utter control and imply deciding not to use it is, necessarily, either a reflection of ignorance or dishonesty.”
What do you mean not using it? Every Democrat folded like a cheap suit over healthcare, which was to designed to meet the final Single Payer Goal at some point in the future, which the American people reject. If the Democrats can’t get anything done, to help recover this economy, how in the hell is that the responsibility of the Republicans? They been shut out by the Democrats. ITDOESNOTADDUP!
The reality is poor leadership, no realistic ideas, an economically painfull agenda, no vision.
Ignorance must be Bliss for you, and I sure wish I was ignorant, maybe I’d get some sleep at night.
Buff,
Except for the Oil Spill, that clearly is Bush and Cheney’s fault.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/23/us/23drill.html?hp
WASHINGTON — A federal judge in New Orleans on Tuesday blocked a six-month moratorium on deep-water drilling projects that the Obama administration had imposed in response to the vast oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico.
It’s nice to see the courts forcing the Obama administration to operate within the law. With its shakedown of BP, the GM and Chrysler Bond holders, and assorted other heavy handed maneuvers the Whitehouse seems in need of a civics lesson. Hopefully they’ll get one in court.
Ignorance is correctable. I see no evidence of this occuring.
Lets wait and see about the appeal. Word is that in judicial disclosure forms that are required of federal judges, the judge that ruled against the moratorium was heavily invested in deep water drilling companies. Of course that is true for the entire Fifth Circuit.
buff,
I was going to leave this alone until I had a conversation at dinner with the GF.
She asked what I thought of the McChrystal thing. I gave it a couple of minutes of thought and here is what I have: “He should be court martialed.
“
The US military, represented by senior officers such as Mc Chrystal and Petraeus, has lost its “moral compass”.
I was a frat boy, Mc Chrystal is no better than I was at 19. He is not the kind of soldier a republic should keep around. A better man would resign rather than go to Truman’s wood shed.
That kind of conduct is permissible in a fraternity where the stakes are a few grades and the house budget, not the future of the US.
That said, why these frat boys get a say in pillaging the US economy is troublesome!
If “all hell breaks lose” it will be as necessary as putting a fraternity on probation. These kids (in generals’ clothes) are nothing to the future of the republic.
Who knows what is going on in the pentagon?
Court martial Mc Chrystal. Gather evidence, look for conspirators.
This treasonous behavior might be common in a corproate culture disdainful of the constitution.
The worst place for rule of law to break down is in the army. There is a law about sedition, who else in the pentagon is quietly derisive of the commander in chief?
Not to mention the web of mistruths and blither on strategies, tactics, arms and waste built in the modern pentagon.
As Jefferson warned: seditious military is the greatest threat to the republic.
The PAC bagmen are running the pentagon.
Got to get my heart healthy fiber enriched oatmeal!
ilsm will not change
I see no law broken…you have to explain carefully.
I see no law broken…please point out which ones.
ilsm,
Obama is a politician. I think having a 1 on 1 with Mc Chrystal is not to smart. Should have had Mullins or Petreous remove him (already) and send him into retirement. If Obama tries to go the article 31 route this blows up and Obama losses control over the message and gives McC a forum. Plus it takes time, riles operations in Afghanistan, hurts Obama’s already strained relations with the armed forces, and most importantly makes Obama look weak. All of which will hurt Obama going into the mid-terms.
Basically there is no-upside for Obama to go the court-martial route. Remember Col North? You could easily end up in that type of scenario.
Obama’s best move would be to have his 1 on 1 with McC and accept his resignation, and quickly (preferably at the same time) announce McC replacement and move on. In a week this is old news. Last thing Obama’s team wants to do is drag this out…
YMMV
Islam will change
ilsm,
“…who else in the pentagon is quietly derisive of the commander in chief?”
Probably a large majority of the Senior Officer Corp. They are just smart enough not to go on the record with Rolling Stones. Which hunts will get you no-where.
You should have heard some of the crap about Clinton from 4-star officers, especially after Monika in the oval office came out. And I won’t even begin to try to repeat the colorful language directed at some of our esteemed Congresscritters (which was vary bi-partisan depending on who was the current pain-in-the-backside at the time).
Your not going to stop the bitching, what McChrystal did wrong was do it in front of a reporter. Which as a 4-star General he should know better (and I understand his press-advisor has already been canned). Publically deriding the President should get you fired.
What I find more interesting is some of the lefty blogs I read actually think Obama won’t fire/resign him. It’ll be interesting…
Islam will change
Jimi,
Its Palin’s fault. You need to get up to date. Bush and Cheney are so old news…
🙂
Very recently in my consulting work I listened to an introduction from an Air Force full Colonel, new to a leadership job in a weapons acqusition organization.
His prioritires were “faith, job and family…..”
Nothing in that litany about ‘duty, honor country’. Nor oaths to the US constitution. Job is so going along with the Mc Chrystals and related frat boys on the military industrial complex career path.
The man admitted not understanding what they do in buying complex stuff did, but he was in nomex flight suit with his universal management badge wings on his chest.
So, the US urgently needs witch hunts in DoD starting at O-6’s and working way up.
Witch hunt, …………………..bitching.
If you overturned the rocks in the mass of Colonel (O-6) and above flag ranks the light of day would drive them all nuts.
It is far worse than bitching and some of it is sedition. I heard it all when Clinton as elected and the gay thing. They were most O-5 and below, but all were at best insubordinate.
Disloyal more proper.
When the officer corps is disloyal no covering it with bitch session malarky can be accepted.
Seditious armies are the bane of republican government.
Very recently in my consulting work I listened to an introduction from an Air Force full Colonel, new to a leadership job in a weapons acqusition organization.
His prioritires were “faith, job and family…..”
Nothing in that litany about ‘duty, honor country’. Nor oaths to the US constitution. Job is so going along with the Mc Chrystals and related frat boys on the military industrial complex career path.
The man admitted not understanding what they do in buying complex stuff did, but he was in nomex flight suit with his universal management badge wings on his chest.
So, the US urgently needs witch hunts in DoD starting at O-6’s and working way up.
Witch hunt, …………………..bitching.
If you overturned the rocks in the mass of Colonel (O-6) and above flag ranks the light of day would drive them all nuts.
It is far worse than bitching and some of it is sedition. I heard it all when Clinton as elected and the gay thing. They were most O-5 and below, but all were at best insubordinate.
Disloyal more proper.
When the officer corps is disloyal no covering it with bitch session malarky can be accepted.
Seditious armies are the bane of republican government.
ilsm will not change
It’s good to see General Petraeus step up and take the job in Afghanistan. This has changed a total debacle into just a very bad situation. We still don’t have a strategy for Afghanistan and I’m not sure what Petraeus is supposed to do but at least our men will have capable and credible leadership on the military side of their chain of command. Now they need a mission that makes sense from the civilian leadership in the Whitehouse and Pentagon.
Ben,
“It’s good to see General Petraeus step up and take the job in Afghanistan.”
Oh so it’s O.k. now! When Petraeus was implementing the Iraq surge, every Democrat on the Planet including Obama and Clinton called him a liar, and said his plan wouldn’t work. But everything is O.k. now…WoW!
“We still don’t have a strategy for Afghanistan.”
Not true! The Obama Administration, McCrystal (who Obama chose to be the leader of the plan), and Petraeus all agreed on the strategy based on Bush’s Strategy in Iraq, and what did Obama do next. He short changed McCrystal on the troop size, and the rules of engagement. So in others words, what you really mean is, we need a new plan since the Obama Administration seems hell bent on failure.
I’m not sure what Petraeus is supposed to do but at least our men will have capable and credible leadership on the military side of their chain of command
Obama chose McCrystal to implement the strategy, and now gets rid of him, because he is embarassed by a Rolling Stone article, most of which McCrystal didn’t even say himself, but has taken responsiblity for. That’s all gonna work out well for troop moral (Ha!)
By your comment, I’m assuming you sleep with a Teddy Bear tucked under your arm at night.