Open thread April 20, 2010 Dan Crawford | April 20, 2010 5:19 pm Comments (60) | Digg Facebook Twitter |
Will global warming, in the near term, be a concern if a bunch of volcanoes become active? If so, why? If not the case, why not?
Yeah, it’s a loaded question, intended to stir discussion.
Volcanoes can certainly cause cooling over a large portion of the globe. But it only lasts as long as the volcano barf hangs in the atmosphere, reflecting and/or blanketing out sunlight. This is on the order of a year or two.
It could conceivably balance or overcome the warming trend over shome relatively short time span.
Global warming is a long range phenomenon. The result would be to put saw teeth on the long range trend line.
There’s not really a lot to discuss here, except that it would give denialists another tool to mislead the gullible.
NY Times: Up to 300,000 public school jobs could be cut
Someone might think to inform all of those governors and mayors and school boards across the country that dessimating the ranks of teachers across the country is more than a loss of jobs. That loss is of course serious enough. Something like throwing fuel onto a fire is putting 300,000 people in a given profession out of wpork. Especially when those workers are the ones most likely to be spending what they earn to keep the economy crawling along.
But they’re teachers for crying out loud. They’re not bankers doing nothing more than counting their bonus money. They’re trying against significant odds to teach your little brats to count, and to read, and maybe a little history and science. They’re the ones who prepare the basic building blocks of a society and they do it for minimal compensation considering the educational requirements of their jobs. They’re trying to teach our kids the basic elements of being able to think and our elected officials seem to think that they’re expendable. It’s the most important money spent in any economy and its the first to be trimmed. A teacher never sold a CDO, nor a CDS, nor any other fancy financial bomb. A teacher sells knowledge to your kids. And does so at the cheapest price you can get.
Thanks to Carl Sagan (Nuclear Winter theory) and the well studied 1991 eruption of Mt Pinitubo that may be about the only climate question that isn’t very controversial. The exact effects will vary with where the volcano is, exactly what sort of stuff it is emitting, and how much stuff it is emitting. The medium term effect is a bit of global cooling that goes away in a couple of years. In the case of big eruptions like Pinitubo, Krakatao, and Tambora, the effects may well be noticable. The active agent is Sulfur Dioxide which forms an aerosol that reflects some incoming light.
Here’s a link with a chart — http://www.climatecentral.org/breaking/news/icelandic_volcano
So far Eyjafjallajokull looks to be about comperable to last years Mt Redoubt eruption in Alaska which is thought to have had virtually no effect on climate. Most meteorologists blame last Winter’s exceptional cold in the South and Mid-Atlantic on a strong El Nino (It was warmer than usual and dry up here in Vermont) not volcanic activity.
I bet the two of us could sit down with the state budget and make the $$ equivelent cuts without taking one teacher out of the classroom (or touching the school budgets period). This is the usual cut the most essential first for maximum propaganda effect. I think the two of us would start with the states aircraft fleet, then cut all salaries of state employees to a maximum of $200K, reform the rules governing how pensions are based (make it last years base salary, no overtime counts or anything else, just like how the US military does it). Cut a huge amount of non-essential stuff that always fill a state government.
This is the old “lets close the state parks as the first cut” crap we have seen in California. It’s basicallt a dishonest ploy and lets state governments avoid ever actually making any cuts.
Islam will change
I do agree with you on all those points. I’d go a step further and look a little more closely at how some of our wealthier citizens fund their “local” schools through property taxes. It’s a great ploy. Fund the schools locally with state revenues dolled out to those local boards to supplement their local school/property taxes. Of course the lower 90% of the schools are desperate for those state supplements and the top 5% are adding the state money on top of the most generous school budgets in the nation. No need for private school expense when you can deduct the school tax instead. I’d be curious to see the teacher cuts on a locality by locality basis. In NY I’d guess the cuts have a far lesser effect, if any, on such counties as Westchester and Nassau, while places like Buffalo, Binghamton and NYC take it on the chin.
What do folks think of Dick Fulds Sargent Schultz like statements yesterday. He knew nothing about repo 105 nothing!. He maintained they were small potatoes in terms of Lehman and that 1/2 of Lehmans balance sheet was offsetting items so the company was not as leveraged as it looks. He clearly should have known and his overall point that Lehman was in good shape and it was all the evil short sellers is a lame defense at best. One question I have is had Lehman remained a private partnership would it have gone down, since it would not have had a stock to short against and whose price affected its credit ratings. (In addition to making the partners really care about what happened as its their life savings at risk totally. )
Offshoring to China. A case study.
Check this out.
Microsoft contractor operation in China: “We are like prisoners… We do not have a life, only work.” -Teenaged Microsoft Worker
A story about these conditions ran in the Seattle pi last week.
Here’s the National Labor’s Committee report on operations at KYE Systems Corporation factory in China.
China’s Youth Meet Microsoft
KYE Factory in China Produces for Microsoft and other U.S. Companies
• Over the past three years, unprecedented photographs of exhausted teenaged workers, toiling and slumping asleep on their assembly line during break time, have been smuggled out of the KYE factory.
• KYE recruits hundreds-even up to 1,000-“work study students” 16 and 17 years of age, who work 15-hour shifts, six and seven days a week. In 2007 and 2008, dozens of the work study students were reported to be just 14 and 15 years old. A typical shift is from 7:45 a.m. to 10:55 p.m.
• Along with the work study students-most of whom stay at the factory three months, though some remain six months or longer-KYE prefers to hire women 18 to 25 years of age, since they are easier to discipline and control.
• In 2007 and 2008, before the worldwide recession, workers were at the factory 97 hours a week while working 80 ½ hours. In 2009, workers report being at the factory 83 hours a week, while working 68 hours.
• Workers are paid 65 cents an hour, which falls to a take-home wage of 52 cents after deductions for factory food.
• Workers are prohibited from talking, listening to music or using the bathroom during working hours. As punishment, workers who make mistakes are made to clean the bathrooms.
• Security guards sexually harass the young women.
• Fourteen workers share each primitive dorm room, sleeping on narrow double-level bunk beds. To “shower,” workers fetch hot water in a small plastic bucket to take a sponge bath. Workers describe factory food as awful.
• Not only are the hours long, but the work pace is grueling as workers race frantically to complete their mandatory goal of 2,000 Microsoft mice per shift. During the long summer months when factory temperatures routinely reach 86 degrees, workers are drenched in sweat.
• There is no freedom of movement and workers can only leave the factory compound during regulated hours.
• The workers have no rights, as every single labor law in China is violated. Microsoft’s and other companies’ codes of conduct have zero impact.
FWIW, the Chinese apparently investigated this when it was reported to them. They issued a report last Thursday stating that the companies are in violation of Chinese law and action will be taken if they do not clean up their act. Oddly enough officials at KYE (A Taiwanese company BTW) and the factories could not be reached for comment. http://www2.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2010-04/17/content_9742934.htm
BTW, chinadaily is worth reading occasionally. It’s not at all what I initially expected. It’s not openly critical of the government or anything like that. But there seems to be no particular commitment to covering up blemishes in China. It’s certainly not like reading Pravda in the 1970s. It reads a lot like the Japan Times — a venerable English Language newspaper in Tokyo.
And a lot of the stories reveal things I didn’t know. Chinese private colleges are likely headed for trouble due to declining enrollments. China has private colleges? I didn’t know that.
Scroll down the report and read this section:
State and Corporate Factory Audits are a Complete Failure
Leaving China’s Workers in a Trap with no Exit
The narrative begins with this statement:
“Consider for example, a rare local government audit of the KYE factory which happened in 2008. Though the audit was supposed to be unannounced, someone in KYE management was alerted with sufficient time to round up the hundreds of workers who were under 18 years old. As you can see in the picture below, the young workers were instructed to gather in the factory courtyard so they could be bused to another location, where they would wait out the state audit and then return to work.”
It is truly wonderful to see the fellowship that has developed between capitalism and communism. Or is that fellowship more accurately one of an integration of a capitalist economic ideology with a totalitarian political and social ideology. Is there any other way of describing the business relationships between China and the global corporate phenomenon. We can’t accurately describe today’s modern corporation in a nationalist way. They’re global and owe no allegiance to any government, but they are fully integrated into the economies of our totalitarian friends in the far east. That China is described as a communist state is only a most superficial diagnosis.
Well, at least the Chinese have a labor law and make some sporadic and apparently largely ineffective attempts to enforce it (except that the minimum working age of 16 actually seems possibly to be taken seriously — I can’t think why). And they are losing factories to Vietnam where the production costs are lower and there is less problem with government. If/when China steps up enforcement (which I think they will over the next couple of decades) they will lose more jobs to more backward countries.
If you want to get a picture of what is going on there try these guys. http://www.chinalaborwatch.org/
(It does seem a little odd that organizations like CLW are tolerated and allowed to publish reports — hasn’t anyone explained to the Chinese how a totalitarian state is supposed to work?).
Anyway, I have two thoughts:
1. If we Americans actually gave a damn about the plight of Chinese labor, we’d boycott Walmart, Dollar General, Adidas, Microsoft, et al until they cleaned up their act in China. My opinion. We don’t, we won’t, and they therefore won’t.
2. We can’t, and shouldn’t want to, compete with factories like those in China. Removing trade barriers that resulted in the destruction of North American production of consumer goods was a very bad idea that only a few guys like Ross Perot and Bernie Sanders spoke out against. We really need to rethink this trade thing and come up with something that isn’t overly protective, but which preserves jobs for working class Americans.
The leading theory on glacial cycles is about to change, I predict. Climate scientists observing the melting ice in the North will conclude that less weight allows the crust to rise 40 feet, releasing the caps on volcanoes and triggering eroptions. The resultant soot will reduce warming and trigger the next ice age.
VtCodger – “It does seem a little odd that organizations like CLW are tolerated and allowed to publish reports — hasn’t anyone explained to the Chinese how a totalitarian state is supposed to work?”
China Labor Watch is a New York-based non-profit organization.
the answer is yes. even a permanent cloud cover, which might prevent warming, will not prevent other effects of increasing CO2 in the air and oceans. In the long run even the cloud cover will not prevent runaway warming unless some other , unexpected, sink shows up.
I stopped buying products made by organ donors more than ten years ago. Anymore that means I stopped buying products.
I just hated it when I found out that apple juice was made in China.
But its okay because the local power company cut down my apple trees anyway. seems they have the right of way on the first twenty feet of my property.
Yep. So What? They investigate openly in China. How long do you reckon their investigators would have lasted in Stalin’s Russia, (or Bush’s Guantanamo Bay for that matter?)
Want a source closer to China? How about this http://www.cic.org.hk/research.htm.
And of course, any source in China is likely to be in Chinese. My skills at reading written Chinese might best be described as poor. Yours?
I’m sure that you can get genuine American grown apple juice locally in Oregon. If not, I’ll dig out a supplier in Vermont or New York who will ship it to you.
***Anymore that means I stopped buying products.***
I think you can buy Japanese stuff. Japan has its moments, but overall, Japanese labor is probably treated better than American labor. Of course some of their stuff comes from other Asian countries, but I think it will say so on the label (possibly in Japanese).
President Obama on the VAT
The VAT question is raised at 14:16 minutes in the following interview video. Obama answers.
One-on-One with Obama (interview video)
The following may be worth noting as well, though I ignored the overreach on their conclusions because decisions haven’t been made or made public thus far.
TEXT: (with ATR bolding and underlining)
President Obama made it official today : He is open to the imposition of a Value-Added Tax (VAT) on the American people. A VAT would violate Obama’s central campaign promise – a “firm pledge” that no family making less than $250,000 per year would see “any form of tax increase”.
Obama’s admission came during an interview with CNBC’s John Harwood. Asked if he could see the potential for a VAT, the President said:
“I know that there’s been a lot of talk around town lately about the value-added tax. That is something that has worked for some countries. It’s something that would be novel for the United States. And before, you know, I start saying ‘this makes sense or that makes sense,’ I want to get a better picture of what our options are.”
Obama’s VAT admission may explain his recent attempts to alter the terms of his central campaign promise. Twice in the past two weeks, Obama has claimed his middle class tax pledge only applied to income taxes rather than “any form of taxes”.
In his April 10 Weekly Radio Address, Obama said:
“And one thing we have not done is raise income taxes on families making less than $250,000. That’s another promise we’ve kept.”
China can’t prevent the China Labor Watch from publishing any reports. That’s the point.
***will not prevent other effects of increasing CO2 in the air and oceans. In the long run even the cloud cover will not prevent runaway warming***
I don’t know what to tell you man. On the one hand, I have to think that pumping huge amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere is a dubious idea. (What’s the plan for getting it out if it really is a problem?)
On the other, I have to say that everything I check out regarding “climate science” leads me to believe that those guys know less about climate than economists know about economics — which is to say that they are basically clueless. Global warming? A little bit almost for sure. More than a little bit? Probably. Certain runaway global warming? I put that stuff in the same category as freshwater economics and the Laffer Curve — intellectually interesting perhaps — but probably not based on a large contact area with reality.
I think the “knows less about climate than economists” may apply to you. But being related to a person in the business I have some respect for their honesty and care. There is some uncertainty of course, but there is sufficient “consesus” to qualify as “science.”
thanks. i may take you up on some of that Vermont stuff. I bought some home grown (Oregon) last year, and to tell you the truth I wouldn’t go back to the Chinese brand now for money. But I also hinted that I am growing my own apples and hope to squeeze it right off the tree next year.
thanks for that. it makes a fella proud to have voted for him.
I can’t knock the President for considering a VAT. He’s dealing with the bigger, long-term budget outlook and it’s not pretty.
I am not totally opposed to a Federal VAT if it will be applied in a realistic manner. The national sales tax idea doesn’t offer as much appeal to me, but it might work with certain considerations in mind.
It’s probably wise to study the concept of a VAT or national sales tax for a while and identify some of the possible advantages that could be achieved.
I expect that some supporters of Federal social programs should give consideration to embracing the VAT or national sales tax. A VAT or national sales tax might relieve some of the potential pressure to modify the Social Security and Federal healthcare programs. It could be a better alternative. But I would oppose employing both actions – modifying the social programs, and adding a national sales tax or employing a VAT as a replacement taxation system for what we have at this time.
Transitioning to a Federal VAT would immensely help exports compete in the world market. This aspect of consideration is driven primarily by WTO policy regarding the use of VATs by many nations. The U.S. is being hammered for not using a VAT.
I believe a Federal VAT it is worth considering, but only if other Federal taxation is eliminated at the same time. I’m not quite sold on a stand alone national sales tax.
As an individual, I might embrace or reject a VAT plan, depending on what is proposed.
We have a state and local sales tax of 9% here, so the Feds are late to the party in my opinion. They say other countries have a VAT, but that is in lieu of what we call sales tax.
I think they need to finally get serious about straightening out the bizarre personal and corporate income tax code we have before considering another new tax, be it VAT or National Sales Tax.
News just came out that something like 40% of corporations paid no income tax. The personal income tax code is a joke with all the credits, deductions and loopholes spread across the entire income range. These things have become like candy for Congress to hand out to each of their constituencies.
The other problem that I have with this is after working and paying high income taxes, now that I wish to stay retired, they will eliminate income taxes and change to regressive consumption taxes? Figures.
MG said: “Transitioning to a Federal VAT would immensely help exports compete in the world market. This aspect of consideration is driven primarily by WTO policy regarding the use of VATs by many nations. The U.S. is being hammered for not using a VAT. “
Here’s another view: “It’s an interesting window into another world… The Europeans seem hell bent on self destruction via Cap and Trade and excessive taxes and have an attitude that everyone else better damn well join them in the handbasket they are weaving for their trip on the road to hell.”
From here: http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2010/04/22/european-mandarin-watch/
1st, I do not understand your first comment. As I understand the implementation of a VAT, it raises the costs of exports. Taxing throughout the production cycle, don’cha no?
2ndly, if you have not read EM Smiths Blog (ChiefIo), he has done yoeman work in deciphering the climate data (not raw as it is barely available), and has found many of its warts and their effects.
In summary, mucjh of the warming being measured is artifacts of equipment changes, site issues, station drops, data processing (which is why we have little raw data), Urban Heat island effects, and finally increases in GHGs and +/- solar effects.
So this entryt reflects on your first and the comment to which it is attached.
MG, read ChiefIo if you have the inclination. Some of his analysis is enlightening.
Economics of Volcano’s (how many times to I get to say that?!…from CBS/AP
The following is a collection of international anecdotes demonstrating how the ash cloud has done more than hit airlines’ bottom lines and inconvenienced air travelers.
• The lack of refrigeration facilities at the airport in capital of the West African nation of Ghana has been a big blow to pineapple and pawpaw farmers who sell to Europe because of the lack of flights. As of Tuesday, no cargo flights have taken off yet.
• In Kenya, thousands of day laborers are out of work because produce and flowers can’t be exported amid the flight cancellations. Kenya has thrown away 10 million flowers – mostly roses – since the volcano eruption. Asparagus, broccoli and green beans meant for European dinner tables are being fed to Kenyan cattle because storage facilities are filled to capacity.
• BMW North America spokeswoman Jan Ehlen told the Herald-Journal of Spartanburg on Monday that the automaker will likely reduce production at the BMW plant in South Carolina because of a shortage of supplies, but shouldn’t have to shut the plant down. BMW uses planes to ship transmissions and other components from its German factories to South Carolina. The Greer plant makes BMW’s X5 and X6 sport utility vehicles.
• The German Foundation for Organ Transplant is delivering hearts, lungs and livers to patients on the basis of how close they are to a delivery. In coordination with the European organization Eurotransplant, the foundation said all organs that usually get flown out to patients were instead being distributed via ground transportation.
• In New York City’s Flower District, thousands of dollars worth of tulips, peonies, daffodils and hundreds of other varieties usually come in on the Friday night flights from the Netherlands to be distributed starting Saturday morning. Last weekend’s weddings didn’t have Dutch flowers.
• Swiss supermarket Migros warned of diminishing supplies of green asparagus during the beloved vegetable’s peak season amid halted air deliveries from the United States. Cod from Iceland and fresh tuna filets from Vietnam and the Philippines could also run out, it warned.
No real comments. I just thought this was interesting about the economic effect of a volcano…
Islam will change
all that is arguable… i don’t know what i think yet… and a certain amount of lying is what politics is all about. still, i have trouble forgving Obama who seems to have lied about everything, and has a website that makes my skin crawl.
i think you could do us a service if you paid attention to the ways in which global warming is being gamed to the benefit of some of the powers and principalities. But your really should leave the science to the scientists.
***But being related to a person in the business I have some respect for their honesty and care.***
I suspect that I know considerably more about global warming than you do. Want to try me out with a few questions?
I didn’t say that (most) climate scientists aren’t honest and sincere. I said that they don’t know what the hell they are doing. I stand by that. I don’t see how anyone with much sense can buy the thesis that a bunch of unvalidated models and sloppy data that has been arbitrarily corrected in often unexplained fashions constitutes irrefutable science.
***but there is sufficient “consesus” to qualify as “science.”***
Ever check out the percentage of papers in “medical science” that turn out to be wrong or seriously in error? It’s pretty high. Consensus? When I was a kid the consensus was that people with flat feet couldn’t walk long distances, that gastric ulcers were caused by worry and that a “healthy diet” was lot of meat and potatoes. Consensus only counts with people who know what they are doing.
BTW, meteorologists — who know something about weather and climate and whose funding is not dependent on beliving in global warming — appear to be — if anything — more skeptical than I am. See http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/30/science/earth/30warming.html
Wow…Finally something you and I can find common ground on…Amazing!
Ohhhh…. Stop It! It’s a damn con-job and you know it. We have all been through the science and there is no question the entire movement is politically motivated. You just happend to agree with the agenda.
“thanks for that. it makes a fella proud to have voted for him.”
When I brought this up weeks ago, you all attacked me as if I bitch slapped your wife?????
I assuming your response to MG here is snark, because if it is not, You have truly made my stomach turn in lieu of the consideration of the VAT. Once we open this Pandora’s Box, it will be a torando of misery. The Europeans started with a moderate VAT, and now most all of them have double it and triple it by now. We will end up doing the same thing.
Just experimenting with the forum filter.
Plenty of written materials are available that discuss the position of WTO regarding VAT. Try googling “WTO and VAT”. If you still have questions after reading some of the available information, lay them out.
you are right about meteorologists, who are people who flunked out of climatology.
the climatologists are intellectually honest, which is more than i can say for the deniers.
you may well know more about climate science than i do. all i know is what i have read in popular sources, and heard from my friends in the business. and, pace CoRev, at one point in my life I knew more about general science and had a reputation as a better thinker than… most, although that isn’t saying much… and after reading the popular literature it was clear to me that the deniers were liars. and based on what i can tell about the real science i would be very much surprised if what you know adds up to more than hearsay.
btw… you will get no argument from me about the general worthlessness of some “expert” opinion.
i never gave up eating eggs. but then again you gotta go with what you know, and doctor mumbo jumbo never impressed me. basic physics did. and the continued increase in CO2… undisputed… tells me there are no hidden sinks waiting to rescue us from our folly.
if you and CoRev want to show us where the evil liberals are using global warming to trick us into a brave new world… go for it. but i suggest the avenue to take is fool schemes like cap and trade and not bizarre claims about science that neither you nor he understand.
don’t be a fool if you can help it.
you have trouble making fine distinctions. first, I am not “you all.” Second I have always been leery of Obama. I voted for him because I couldn’t stomach the new John McCain, not to mention his running mate.
My reply to MG was quite sincere.
You have trouble making fine distinctions
You’re a left winger that think’s he’s an independent. Since you don’t know what you are don’t blame jimi for not making fine distinctions over arbitrary and dishonestly presented character traits.
Glad to see you back…You got railroaded!
What are you talking about? Captain Wonderful ran the most fraudulent campaign in the history of campaings. He’s lied about everything…
If you were leery of him, then why are you happy that you voted for?
So either you were completely bamboozled before the election, or you not the moderate you pretend to be. Either way honesty is running away from you like a hobo in the unemployment line.
Hey, look. I’m not trying to convice you that global warming isn’t going to happen — just that the constant — We’re all going to die and soon if we don’t panic NOW is unproductive. We do not have the slightest idea what is going to happen with climate or whether the changes are going to be disasterous (drought, violent storms) or beneficial (more rain in areas that need it) or somewhere in between. Beyond a reasonable guess that the planet will be warmer in 2100 than it is today, they simply don’t know enough to make a guess.
Could climate change possibly be beneficial? Well, the most dramatic climate phenomenon in North America in past Century was the dustbowl drought. For a wonder, hardly one blames that on either global warming or FDR. Our climate modelling is so far from maturity that we don’t actually know what caused it. One theory I read this morning is that the combination of an unusally warm Atlantic and an unusually cool Pacific set up wind patterns that blocked the normal circulation of Gulf of Mexico moisture into the interior of North America for most of the 1930s. If global warming made a repetition of that less likely, would that be a bad thing?
If we can’t explain the past, how can we presume to project the future with any confidence?
I also have a bunch of complaints about the way climate scientists handle data and why they don’t improve their data handling. I think it needs considerable improvement. And I simply don’t think the IPCC is credible for exactly the same reason that I don’t think the American Enterprise Institute is credible. It’s an advocacy organization that pushes a specifc agenda and stretches the truth to (and perhaps a bit beyond) its limits in pursuit of that agenda.
This is getting overlong, but one thing to keep in mind when looking at increasing CO2 is that there is a limit to how much radiation CO2 can block. If 100ppm blocks 50% at some wavelength, another 100ppm blocks only an additional 25%. Ultimately even a huge amount CO2 can’t block more than 100%. It can however kill the dude making the measurements since at high concentrations CO2 is toxic. BTW, One of the things that needs serious research is the lowest level of atmospheric CO2 that will impair the health of the most susceptible individuals when exposed continuously. I can’t find any indication that we know what that is. It’s important. It’s not like not breathing is a viable option.
***I am growing my own apples and hope to squeeze it right off the tree next year.***
Tried that once. Messy. And the apples weren’t that great so the juice wasn’t all that good. I think Cold Hollow Cider Mill in Stowe will ship you apple juice or cider at an extortionate price. But you should be able to get Oregon or Washington apple juice locally I should think. BTW, the apple crop in Vermont is traditionally picked by locals supplemented by Jamaican farmers who fly up here in the fall to help with the fruit harvest. No danger of them overstaying their visas I’m told. They think Vermont is a nice place (at least that’s what they tell Americans) but way too cold. And that’s before the snow starts.
Dale, why the arrogant commentary? We both know you are an AGW zealot with little to no background. You admit to not followng any links, admit to not reviewing any of the recent science literature, and rely on your daughter who is not a climatologist. You are showing your ignorance, arrogance and bias.
Making snarky remarks about meteorologists, failed climatologists? is just plain ignorant. Meteorologists are trained in advanced physics, advanced atmosperics, most of fluid dynamics, statistics, and other hard sciences depending on specialty. All of these studies go beyond the introductory level.
Dale said: “the climatologists are intellectually honest, which is more than i can say for the deniers. ” 1st, I guess you have not read anything about Climategate? Intellectually honest? Not by their own words. You really do need to read more.
2ndly, using “deniers” shows a mindset that does not fit reality. Do you actually know any Climate Change/Global Warming/Anthropogenic Global Warming deniers? I do not.
You are not adverse to giving us your personal opinion on Climate Change, but that is all you provide. No links. No science. No support for your opinions at all.
You are also not adverse to giving us a lot of sarcasm. So when it is returned do not be surprised.
Color me totally unimpressed.
MG, I have read some of the materials and they confirm my concerns. VAT advantages are in that VAT-Govts rebate the tax on products exported while adding the tax to basic imports, plus to their tranport, storage, and handling. Thereby using the VAT as a tariff plus.
Having an US VAT would just add it to the total price on our exports (my original concern.) If we had a US VAT we would need to use it as a tariff as do our competitors. Then there would be some leveling of the foreign trade playing field.
Do you have confidence that this administration would do the right thing? I’m not sure I do. Moreover, what would a VAT do to our existing trade agreements?
JzB, what’s a denialist? Know any?
Dale, runaway warming???!!!??? When was the last time that happened on this 4.5Billion year old planet?
Hahahahahahah. Now that’s a true believer for Ya!
Dale, I lifted this from comments over at WUWT. “
Mysteries of modern climatological ’science’.
1. Mistakes are always found by non-climatologists.
2. Mistakes are found to have been erroneously increasing the temperature.
3. People who find the mistakes are reviled by climatologists.
But don’t forget – the ’science’ is settled.”
The original article was about how a single station has caused much of the N. Canada warming, and much of that warming is from data errors.
One coding error perturbs the whole month’s average for that station. Since station are very widely spaced in N. Canada, that perturbed data is used to fill-in several (sometimes many) other grid areas. That data is also used to calculate “corrections” for other available data.
Therefore, we have a simple and sometimes single data error that get’s propagated throughout a region. This happens in many regions, and is common enough to be a problem, a problem for many decades.
So, Dale, your ‘science’ is suspect, especially when the follow on studies, Y’ano biological in nature, that use this data as comparators/baselines is also suspect.
***Dale, runaway warming???!!!??? When was the last time that happened***
Actually it was only about 15000 years ago when the Wisconsin glaciation abruptly ended and the mile thick glaciers decided to quickly put as much distance between themselves and Newark as possible. Since we live in the climate after warming, we generally don’t look at the end of the glaciation as run away warming, but it was pretty dramatic. It’s worth noting that the human race somehow survived although much of the megafauna in North America and Australia didn’t.
And no, climate science still has no very good idea why that happened even after a century and a half of puzzling over it. And we don’t understand why the megafauna took a huge hit in North America, but not in Africa or Eurasia either.
Codger, yup! Just a normal recovery from a glaciation. Something that has happened many times over. So, agreed, not runaway and not unprecedented.
BTW, have you seen this latest in a line of orbital determinations of CC? http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/climatechange/story/30682/longterm-climate-changes-linke-1.asp
I thought this was pretty much understood, but I guess even another look doesn’t hurt. Confirmation, don’cha no?
Glad to see you back…You got railroaded!
I think I made the Bruce/Rdan/Mysite character along with his political views feel Impotent. The Mysite stuff shows he has a impulese control problem.
I think it would work like this:
1) All our food would immediatly leave the counrty
2) Goldman Sachs would corner the pork belly futures market
3) Microsoft would burn Windows 8 CDs in the US
4)The Dems Primary would still be held in Iowa
5)The Reps Primary would move to Texas from New Hampshire
Campaign speeches would still include patriotic references to “The Richest Counrty In The World” and we would see a cheering electoriate on TV singing “Yes, We Need No Bananas…”
Almost forgot 6) NASA announces the detailed 100 Year Plan to Colonize Mars 7) The Pentagon puts in a budget request to Congress for 20,000 space suits at $300,000 each 8) DARPA requests R&D funding for Low G Toilets 9) The PGA announces that the 2099 Tiger Woods Invitational will be held on Mars at the New Beijing Hilton
Ever wonder how the Goracle’s investment portfolio is doing? Try here: http://www.chicagoclimatex.com/
CCX CFI —–CLOSE –CHANGE
Couldn’t have happened to a better ….
***BTW, have you seen this latest in a line of orbital determinations of CC? ***
Yep. Those would be Milankovich Cycles. They’re real and the orbital mechanics are well understood. They definitely affect climate at any given location. The tricky thing is that the total amount of radiation received by the Earth doesn’t change even though a given location may have a longer or drier or shorter or wetter Winter or Spring or Summer.
Problem is that the cycles are hard to match to paleoclimates. At the moment, there isn’t even all that much agreement on where the Milancovich driven climate changes might be going. That’s not because the astronomy isn’t understood. IMO it’s because we don’t yet know much about climate.
Wikipedia has a good article http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovitch_cycles
***I am not totally opposed to a Federal VAT if it will be applied in a realistic manner.***
You pointed out in another thread that a VAT is a “legitimate” form of export subsidy. I still haven’t had time to really think that through, but it seems right on the surface. Ordinarily, I’d oppose a VAT because it is not progressive and I think that reducing income inequality in the US should be a national goal. But I’m inclined to support anything that would work against jobs and money being America’s major exports.
Codger, the effects of VAT are really simple to see. In VAT countries imports are taxed on its original value then on each succeeding step; thereby raising the retail cost.
Exports get VAT rebates and therefore are competing without the VAT tax added. In an ours versus theirs world, our exports are not as competitive as theirs, all things being somewhat equal within the VAT tax value.
WTO being overwhelmingly made up of VAT tax countries, they protect their advantages. Because of differences like this and the higher Corp. tax rates, etc. we are climbing a steeper hill to compete.
I am slowly coming around to MG’s POV on foreign trade with the exception of how a VAT would impact our existing (XXX)FTAs.