Topical thread: Incumbency, retirements, and leavings
The Dan Rather interview also reminded me of the many Senators and House members outright retirements or “running for another office” that affect the nature of incumbent advantage in more regular elections. From a cursory google of sources I believe there are 9 senate retirements (4 R, 5D) and 17 (6R,11D) House members retiring outright, and the numbers sort of even out overall when those “seeking other offices” are added to the list.
Robert points us to new”>http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2010/03/poll-most-think-passing-health-reform-was-a-good-idea.php?ref=fpa”>new polling that makes for interesting interpretation.
A bump then a return to reality as the bill’s contents unfold.
A bump then a return to reality as the bill’s contents unfold. Dems and the MSM just do not understand and relate to the anger in the electorate.
Well you got the dynamics exactly backwards. The disarray in the GOP today is truly amusing with all the leadership talking at cross-purposes. The joint message seems to be “We will REPEAL this BILL! Except the good parts we agree with” which turns out to be all the stuff which increases burdens on health insurance companies.
Insurance companies were for this bill before they were against it. They loved the individual mandate but hated the premium controls and insurance reform measures on things like pre-existing conditions. Yet the prime item that is drawing fire from both left and right on this is precisely the individual mandate that rescues the bill for the insurers.
We have seen more actual coverage of the LAW’s (not bill anymore) actual contents over the last thirty six hours than in any month previous. And people like what they see, none of the horror stories are being borne out. Sorry CoRev you are just whistling past the graveyard on this one.
Republicans just mis-read the polls. A substantial chunk of opposition to this bill was a combination of lefties thinking it didn’t go far enough and people disgusted at the simple failure to actually get things done. Now that it is LAW most of the lefties are falling in line (though the FDL people are holding tough) and many of the rest are just happy it is nearly over.
As a sign of how hopeless the Republican position is the Senate Democrats just yield back all their time on the Reconciliation Bill and so cut debate time in half meaning that votarama might well start this evening DC time. Because the Republican counterproposals are so weak and their strategy of getting embarrassing votes on record so pathetic that Dems don’t even feel the need to push back. Republicans went way out on that limb and their solution is to cut it off. Have a nice Fall! (in both senses of the word).
Bruce, I do believe that the Gallup poll will provew to be an outliers and my original comment that there will be a short lived bump and then we will se support contiue to fall.
As an aside, on another thread I commented that many Dems/Libs/Progressives do not understand/realize the depth of anger in the electorate. Hoyer just had a press conference saying many Dem members are getting death threats for voting on this bill.
Make my point? Think that’s going away?
I am also hearing anecdotes of reality-based voters starting to show up at medical facilities asking for their FREE care. Dem core voters no doubt, or some of 2slugs knowledge challenged ?conservative? voters?
Bruce, I do believe that the Gallup poll will prove to be an outlier and my original comment that there will be a short lived bump and then we will see support contiue to fall.
As an aside, on another thread I commented that many Dems/Libs/Progressives do not understand/realize the depth of anger in the electorate. Hoyer just had a press conference saying many Dem members are getting death threats for voting on this bill. Seemed surprised? Why? Wonder what his townhall meetings will be like?
Make my point? Think that’s going away?
I am also hearing anecdotes of reality-based voters starting to show up at medical facilities asking for their FREE care. Dem core voters no doubt, or some of 2slugs reality challenged ?conservative? voters?
CoRev,
You should go see Nate Sliver’s analysis of the Gallup poll and the likely staying power of the bump. Also, note that most of the polls released since Sunday that showed little bounce were also polls that were actually done mostly prior to Sunday’s passage. So those polls don’t tell you much. And as luck would have it, a second poll (CBS) was done that now shows a 5 point bump. This poll was interesting in that it asked the same respondents, before and after Sunday’s vote.
http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/poll_health_care_032410_7am.pdf?tag=contentMain;contentBody
You should go see Nate Sliver’s analysis of the Gallup poll and the likely staying power of the bump. Also, note that most of the polls released since Sunday that showed little bounce were also polls that were actually done mostly prior to Sunday’s passage. So those polls don’t tell you much. And as luck would have it, a second poll (CBS) was done that now shows a significant bump. This poll was interesting in that it asked the same respondents, before and after Sunday’s vote. So this actually measures how specific people actually changed their mind after Sunday’s vote. This is a compelling argument.
http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/poll_health_care_032410_7am.pdf?tag=contentMain;contentBody
2slugs, dunno but, to me 3-4 points difference is not significant. Watch a week and then a month from now.
Why would anyone not presently serving in Congress seek such an office at this time?
Yes, I am familiar with the normal reasons that candidates cite. I have heard them directly from candidates and incumbents. Those reasons don’t override the adverse political atmosphere on Capitol Hill. D.C. and the endless flights back and forth become your life once you’re sworn in. Taken together with the levels of political and personal hostility we’re observing, that’s not much to look forward to for one’s self or family.
I am not sure that it makes much sense to seek Congressional office right now.