3000 Dow In 2010: Is He Mad? – Huffington Post – excerpts
February 12, 2010 06:09 PM
“In early March of 44 B.C., a soothsayer warned Julius Caesar about the Ides of March. Unfortunately, Caesar ignored the warning, and we all know the rest of the sad tale Harry Dent Jr., a former consultant to Fortune 100 companies and presently publisher of HS Dent Forecast, a monthly investment newsletter in Tampa, Fla., sees a similar kind of fate for the stock market, although he has expanded the time frame of his Ides of March scenario to somewhere between early March and late April.
Basically, Dent sees a series of “ticking time bombs,” both here and abroad that will intensify world-wide financial turmoil.
Let’s start with one of the stock market’s biggest current worries, European debt fears, which embrace such countries as Greece, Portugal, Spain, Ireland and Italy. Dent takes these financial concerns a couple of frightening steps further. He not only sees massive debt crises in the U.S., Europe and east Asia, but a series of defaults, as well, in Latin America, the Middle East and Africa due to a commodity bust which he believes will worsen into at least early 2013 and possibly into early 2015…
His wrap-up advice to his newsletter subscribers is ominous. In brief: “Get ready for the most extreme two years of your lifetime–the debt crisis of late 2010 to late 2012. If you raise cash by selling assets, cutting costs and focusing on your business (or selling it), you will be highly rewarded.”
“Caesar ignored the warning, and we all know the rest of the sad tale”
Why not kill Ceasar? Roman law prohibited a general from bringing his army into Rome, specifically to prevent a popular general from overthrowing the republic. Ceaser was in in violation of this law when he crossed the Rubicon river with his legion fresh from having ethnically cleansed Gaul.
If genral betrayus were to attempt a milatary coop and some politician grew some fuzzies and stabbed him, what would be wrong with that? Machiavelli although better know for his book the Prince, seeks to vindicate Brutus in his magnum opus “the discourses”.
By now everyone has heard the charge by the left that republicans are hypocrites when they say the Christmas bomber should not have given miranda rights. The basis of charge is that Richard Reid (the shoe bomber) was treated the same way under the Bush administration. However, this is a false comparison since when Richard Reid attempted to blow up flight 63 it was before the Bush administration with a deliberate due process had set up the mechanism to deal with terrorist non military combatants.
Richard Reid attempted his mass murder on December 22, 2001. Gitmo was not opened until 2002. Reid made it apparent that the current system was inadequate and the system needed to be changed to process the new threat from holy warriors. So yet again, when you look more closely a liberal charge you find out they are selling nonesense. Again, Reid came along before the Gitmo interrogation and detention camp was opened for business.
The problem with health care, according to microeconics 101, is that health care providers and the insurance companies they rode in on, are monopolists. Duh !
They maximize profits by limiting supply because they can charge a higher price. Duh !
They have cornered the market through liscensing, restricted educational opportunities, law, and hubris.
If there is another terrorist attack, and it gets connected back to this guy, it will be the end of Obama.
How did you Dems foist this Obama joker on the country? We already knew he had no experience (in anything), and no accomplishments (in anything). Now we realize he has no management skills, and no common sense. So what does he got? Oh yeah, he is good at reading off a teleprompter. Well that is ringing hollow already.
Please, someone, tell me what he has going for him. Give me some hope.
The proper way to treat Petraues and Mc Chrystal was to fire them both. WHat commander in cheif would put up with their insolence, and attempts at coup? The UCMJ certainly has the rule.
BTW by the time Julius came across the Rubicon the republic was no more such than the US today.
It is no wonder the Tea Baggers are opposed to government run healthcare, when it is so painfully obvious how our government run educational system has failed them.
If there is another terrorist attack, and it gets connected back to this guy, it will be the end of Obama.
I think this is true but my point was to highlight the timing of the Richard Reid incident with respect to the opening of Gitmo for terrorists. Richard Reid happened before Gitmo and he provided more motivation to change the rules and was not an execption to the new regime.
It was wrong for the Bush administration to Mirandize Reid too. But Bush’s determination and sincerity in preventing another terrorist attack was apparent to everyone, even his political enemies, and so he gets a pass on this from the public. Remember the flight suit? and the “Bring it on!”
BHO does not have that reputation or record. In fact he projects a lack of seriousness, or even weakness, on the issue. Remember his world “Blame America World Syncophacy Tour?” And now we have the KSM trial circus, in which 0 has promised KSM a fair trial, after which he will be hung.
It interesting that another global crisis may be unfolding and very few reading this blog have said a word about it.
Rebecca is the only main poster devoting any considerable attention to the EuroMess. No one is piecing together the implications of a China slowdown coupled together with EU’s foot dragging.
There was a time on this blog when a number of readers were actively tuned in to major global economic issues. It appears that those readers are gone if the lack of comments on such matters is an indication…
Movie Guy, I have written a fair amount about global issues of late, but, I do not foresee a ‘China slowdown’. So perhaps I am not fitting into your ‘those readers’ category? There is a great post re. China at Econospeak by Brenda Rosser and Rdan provided a link recently but I don’t remember where. Easy to find the site and the post though.
The two reprobates pictured above endager my ability to pursue life liberty and happiness more then all the rag heads the world over.
I really don’t understand the Partisan devide. Gates Bernake and Geithner are still running the economy and the milatary. They both wanted to steal our prosperity with TARP. They both want to bring in 1,500,000 legal immigrants to displace American workers. They both want to legalize all the illegal aliens. They persue the same trade policies that have evisorated the American economy. They both like bombing wemon and childeren. They both grovel at the feet of AIPAC. There both as full of s**t as a Christmas goose. What is the difference? Screw um both
Movie Guy, I doubt that anyone can say with any certainty but they, China, has a new trade agreement that allegedly removed thousands of tariffs (ASEAN). It is hard to call.
Movie Guy, The Global collapse only slowed the Chinese economy by a few %, so if by “forced slowdown”, you mean the tightening of lending, it is good to remember that wage inflation is not likely with a half a billion reserve workers. Their only serious problem was our not consuming, and the ASEAN deal may have solved that for now. They have also been busy on trade deals in L. America and I suppose Africa. They act, we react.
It interesting that another global crisis may be unfolding and very few reading this blog have said a word about it.
The top story around the world this morning is the Nato offensive in Afghanistan. I don’t have an opinion on this strategy and wont until it succeeds or fails. Another big story is the opening of the Vancouver Olympics and the death of the luger. We’re in the process of foregetting about Haiti, even with its 217,000 deaths. China’s economy is growing to fasts so they’re slowing it down. Greece is growing to slow and they have too many on the government payroll and have a financial crisis. However, the markets don’t indicate this will ruin the economy. 20 Russians dead in an industry shootout (now that’s a hostile takeover). We had a big snow storm last week, Washington was shut down for the better part of the week, and boy 6 declares snowmaggedon. Clinton had a heart problem, went to the hospital, but now seems OK. Toyota is still recallying cars every day which is bad for them but good for the U.S. Auto industry (providing we don’t screw up too). The election of Scott Brown appears to have stopped healthcare, at least for now, and the new Gridlock appears to have caused a lull in Washington and in the blogoshere. A lull is a lull but lulls don’t last.
MC — six months ago you accused me of being biased when I said the economy was bottoming.
It seems that being biased is disagreeing with your extremely bearish expectations.
But guess what, the economy has bottomed and it appears to be on track for a more or less normal — if weak — recovery. Most importantly, retailers are reporting that sales have been exceeding expectations and business capital spending is rebounding right after S&P 500 EPS growth turned positive, exactly as it almost always does.
Yes, the Chinese are trying to slow their economy from an extremely strong pace to only just strong. This may dampen commodity prices, and more importantly keep oil prices in check. This could allow consumer real incomes to grow and financed continued growth in consumer spending. I see a slowing of Chinese growth as a good thing for the US, but you are free to see it as a disaster.
Now, after 6 months of my being expectations being right and your forecast of disaster on the horizon being wrong you clearly have the right to stick with your forecast. For all I know you may turn out to be right in the end.
You are right, I have not written about the problem with the Euro. If I had, I would have been writing about the foolishness of the CNBC screaming heads that were telling everyone to sell the dollar and buy the Euro when it was obvious that the Euro faced exactly the type of problems we are now seeing. Remember, in 1931 it was the failure of an Austrian bank that triggered the second leg down of the great 1929-33economic collapse. But hopefully, unlike in the 1930, the Greek problems will not cause the Fed to tighten.
For years I’ve been forecasting that we were going to have a great stagnation similar to the Long Depression of the late 19th century or the Japanese experience. It is just so depressing to see it unfolding that I don’t feel like commenting on every detail. But note, that in neither the long depression or the Japanese experience there was not a massive collapse of the economy like we saw over the last two years. So we could experience a couple of years of a normal economic recovery and still be in a long term sub-par stagantion scenario.
Bend over, lube yourself and prepare to be r**** by flower shop owners, chocolate companies, restaurants, jewelry stores, and other ancillary korporations.
Dear me. I thought the Republican candidate in 2008 was some dude named McBride or McDuffy or something like that. You seem to have confused him with a sanitation worker or something judging from the outfit — looks vaguely familiar — when selectitng images.
Anyway McWhatever was pretty forgetable so it’s probably OK that you have forgotten him. And he and that marginally literate bimbo he teamed up with could manage to make a stuffed turkey look presidential — which explains Obama. If you look back at the major party presidential candidates in the past three decades or so, Obama starts to look a lot better. You’d like to have Al Gore or Bob Dole dealing with two stupid wars and a major economic crisis? It’d be nice to have a great leader, but what the hell, we could easily do a lot worse and have done so repeatedly in the past.
If you mean free fall is over — at least until something major breaks — yeah that seems likely although I’m very skeptical that the banks are anywhere near as solvent as they claim to be. They are still holding a lot of probably quite unrealistically priced “assets” that don’t seem likely to be able to get rid of without write major offs. And housing and auto sales are still somewhat below dismal. Construction — residential and commercial is moribund.
The US economy has become dependent on consumer spending, and lately on consumer spending fueled by borrowing. Obviously, that can’t and won’t continue forever. Maybe 60-40 that’s over for a long time. Which means — I think — something like a long hospital stay and a lot of physical therapy for the economy rather than a robust or even “normal” recovery.
And energy — well oil anyway — prices are quite likely headed upwards maybe 10-15% a year on average for a long time. The cocktail napkin says that takes maybe 1% a year off our already dismal real GDP growth. Add in the drag from a lot of foreclosures and maybe 1% a year from new consumer loans that aren’t being made. That is not have a recipie for future boom times.
I don’t think the Fed is going to tighten anyway, but if they did, I’m not sure how much affect it would have.
Unless I’m mistaken, the Xmas Bomber was processed and read his Miranda rights IAW procedures put in place by the outgoing Bush Administration in the fall of 2008. So are you criticizing Obama for not recognizing that Bush was weak on terrorists and the Bush policies should have been overturned? Is that your argument?
I for one don’t have anything particularly intelligent or profound to add to the EuroMess discussion. It’s a mess. Most macroeconomic policy prescriptions assume that the entire world’s economy isn’t correlated in the same cyclical direction. So traditionally a country in recession would use monetary policy or currency depreciation to “beggar thy neighbor” who was not in recession. The EuroMess is kind of a perfect storm on a number of counts. Not only is this a global slump making “beggar thy neighbor” policies problematic, but Europe gave up one powerful tool (independent monetary policy) that would have been available to combat recessions. That leaves fiscal policy as the only remaining tool. Add to that the fact that a lot of the growth in Europe was in the financial sector (e.g., London and Dublin), and the fact that the world isn’t really big enough to have more than one financial capital (New York), and you’ve got a problem. And then the one thing that probably could have helped Spain the most was a cap and trade agreement (the Spanish are big players in wind energy development), and that is flopping around after Copenhagen.
No directive by the Bush administration forced the Chistmas bomber to be treated as a civilian defendent. That was this administration’s brilliant ideal.
Anyway the key point was the left misleading their own low information voting base by saying Richard Reid was a precident for the way the Christmas bomber should be treated. But his is a false comparison since Richard Reid was arrested in december 2001 and Gitmo did not get going until 2002. This lie works on the left because the left consists of mainly low information voters. Fox may be the only network you can trust now.
With the blizzards in the East Coast we are hearing from global warming fanatics that this simply is another manifestation of global warming. As counterintuitive as this may seem, I wrote this up to explain it.
This is the way science works for the supporters of AGW
Increased warming means higher temperatures and therefore less snow. But increased warming means more water vapor in the atmosphere leading to more precipitation. Therefore AGW can cause big blizzards. So too little snow or too much snow is an indication of global warming.
More warming can mean glaciers will shrink. But more precipitation means glaciers can grow. Therefore if glaciers are growing or shrinking it means global warming is happening.
More warming means more energy for hurricanes and therefore more and stronger hurricanes are in the future. But more warming also means more wind sheer which cuts off hurricanes and can mean fewer hurricanes. So more or fewer hurricanes is caused by globalwarming.
More water vapor means more clouds and more precipitation. More clouds and precipitation causes cooling which could lead to global cooling. So if it is warming or cooling, it is proof of global warming.
No directive by the Bush administration forced the Chistmas bomber to be treated as a civilian defendent. That was this administration’s brilliant ideal.
Actually, this is wrong. A regulation is binding on govt employees and has the force of law unless there is a specific regulation that reverses it. The Bush regulation from late 2008 was the standing procedure. Obama simply continued the Bush policy. So basically your entire screed is pointless.
BTW, I’m glad the Bush Administration got things right in late 2008. Better late than never.
This is not a definitive link, but I’m still looking. The link below says it’s up to the discretion of the Justice Department on if the individual is handled by the military or is to face civilian justice. This contradicts what slugs just said. Slugs with his factoids is trying to make fools out of everyone here, regardless if they are on the left or the right. He thinks everyone is a low information voter. I just pointed out the lie of the left on the Richard Reid/Christmas bomber comparison. It looks like he can’t deal with it.
Since Obama took office 10 months ago, the Justice Department has been deciding which suspected terrorists will be handled by the military and which will face civilian trials, as the prison at Guantánamo Bay continues to empty at Obama’s direction.
Remember on any issue dealing with global warming it’s always. Man did it. Things are worse then we expected. The effects will be devestating. These Scientific outcomes have been very predictable, almost pre-determined.
So here is Gibbs feeding the low information voters on MSNBC (they really ought to switch to Fox). In this statement he says that Obama is being held to a different standard and uses Richard Reid to make his point. Yet Richard Reid attempted his murders in December 2001 and Gitmo was not opened until 2002. I wonder if I can call in to MSNBC next time one of their loons is making this case again.
Gibbs swipes at Republicans for double standard on handling of terrorist trials
By Michael O’Brien – 02/11/10 10:00 AM ET GOP lawmakers are holding the Obama administration to a different standard than its predecessor when it comes to handling terror trials, White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs argued Thursday.
Gibbs lashed out at Republican critics, who have assailed the administration’s handling of the attempted Christmas Day bombing, as having an entirely different standard for President Barack Obama than they did for President George W. Bush. “What we have here is politicians who’ve decided, eight years after they agreed that everything that was done with Richard Reid somehow is now done all wrong because it’s a different president,” Gibbs said during an appearance on MSNBC.
Former Vice President Cheney will appear on ABC’s “This Week” on Sunday, and it’s a safe bet what he will say: President Barack Obama projects weakness to terrorists and puts American lives at risk.
It’s the kind of brutal charge — nuance-free and politically explosive — that has become a Cheney specialty since he left office 13 months ago.
Everytime the Obama administration does something like move the terrorist trials out of New York or delay the closing of Gitmo they they show they are Cheney’s bayatch.
Try reading your own link. It’s about how to handle GITMO detainees who were picked up on the battlefield. The Xmas bomber doesn’t fit that category. The relevant procedures were written by Attorney General Mukasey at the end of the Bust Administration. Those are the relevant procedures for processing suspected domestic terrorists. You should at least try to get your facts right if you want to graduate from low information voter status.
2slugs said: “And then the one thing that probably could have helped Spain the most was a cap and trade agreement (the Spanish are big players in wind energy development), and that is flopping around after Copenhagen.” Spain is a participant in the EU’s ETS (their version of our Cap & Trade.) How precisely would Spain benefit from our’s?
More importantly how would we or Spain benefit from a system (world-wide trade in carbon credits) that has recently been shown to be rife with fraud?
Then why did the FBI interrogate the dude for 50 minutes prior to the Justice Dept stepping in and Mirandizing the guy? If the directive really has the “force of law” then those FBI guys must be in some legal trouble.
Besides, I don’t care whose policy it is, it is a WRONG POLICY. And, in case you haven’t noticed with all the blaming Bush for everything, 0bama is the president. It’s his responsibility, and he will be measured, so he better get a grip.
***So too little snow or too much snow is an indication of global warming***
As is a normal amount of snow, I’m sure although I’d have no idea why. Anyway, the weather guy on Vermont Public Radio informed me that yesterday is the first morning in over a century when there was snow on the ground in all 50 states. I’m sure that also proves the planet is warming dramatically.
As I understand it, they interviewed him for 50 minutes because their immediate concern was to try and determine if there was another “ticking bomb”. He was spilling his guts during that 50 minute interview. The law isn’t that the FBI has to give him his Miranda rights, it’s that whatever he says prior to that cannot be used in court against him. The FBI wasn’t worried about getting a prosecution…afterall, they had dozens of eyewitnesses on the plane as well as physical evidence. The FBI was immediately concerned with gaining intelligence information and not Mirandizing him seems to have served that purpose. He only clammed up after he was issued his Miranda rights. So actually I think this whole episode worked out pretty well for the FBI. It was quite clever. They ended up getting the best of both worlds. They got extremely good intelligence without having to Mirandize him and they managed to do so without really jeopardizing their court case because they already had plenty of evidence to get a conviction even without his statement.
You may not care whose policy it was, but the point of Cantab’s original post was to try and pretend that it wasn’t Bush’s policy because the Richard Reid shoebomber case was pre-Gitmo. What Cantab forgot was that the FBI procedures were not based on the Reid precedent, they were based on Mukasey’s Oct 2008 guidelines. The Obama Administration had the good sense to retain those procedures. So I agree that ultimately it is Obama’s responsibility. But since I’m arguing that the procedures were in fact quite successful, doesn’t it makes sense that Bush should also get some of the credit? I’m not making an argument against Team Bush. I’m saying that this was one of the few things that Team Bush actually got right. Let’s give credit where credit’s due. Why do you want to let the Obama Administration be the only ones to get credit for a successful interrogation? Doesn’t make sense.
Spain would benefit because it would increase their export earnings and because it would increase Spanish GNP (as opposed to just GDP) due to Spanish owned wind power companies with plants in other countries. Spain needs export earnings and being tied to the Euro is depressing Spanish exports. So if you can’t depreciate the currency, the next best thing is to stimulate demand for your export products.
Are you saying Spain would export wind energy? Why are they not already exporting any EXCESS energy? If there is anything for Spain to export from a US Cap & Trade then what is it? If you are considering carbon credits an export then I think your logic is faulty.
They did it again. Vice president made the Richard Reid/Christmas bomber comparision. I already explained that Reid attempted his murders before Gitmo was running. And naturally David Gregory just let it go by.
Biden went on to use that oldie but goodie that Cheney was entitled to his own opinion but not his own facts. But it really looks like Biden is the misleading one
I am talking about the physical equipment; i.e., the actual blades and turbines as well as the actual construction. I’m not talking about carbon credits are anything like that. If you’ve ever seen all those huge blades going down the interstate, almost all of those are manufactured by Spanish owned plants located in the US. The relationship is similar to Japanese owned auto factories in Tennessee and Alabama. Spain is way out in front of the rest of the world in terms of wind power technology and delaying cap & trade hurts Spain. And while Greece is the country getting most of the attention right now, the Spanish situation is probably more grave because Spain’s economy is almost 4 times as large as Greece’s economy.
This is one of the stupidest arguments you’ve ever made. The first prisoners from Afghanistan arrived at Gitmo on 11 Jan 2002. That means the facilities, albeit it temporary, were in place long before their actual physical arrival. And Bush announced on 13 Nov 2001 that prisoners would be subjet to detention and handled by military trials. And in Nov 2001 Military.com was already reporting that Gitmo is where they were headed. So the policy was in place long before the shoe bomber ever showed up. Richard Reid was not indicted until 16 Jan 2002, which was after Gitmo was up and running. So the Bush Administration had every opportunity to ship him off to Gitmo if they had really wanted to do so. You’re making yourself look like a laughingstock here. You can’t even get the timelines right.
The Richard Reid case showed that in 2001 the current system was inadequate to meet priority of extracting as much information as possible from terrorist enemy combatants.
The Bush administration created a procedure where the Attorney General has the decision to process an individual in either a criminal or civilian court. You suggested in a earlier post that this administrations hands were tied because of decision made during the Bush administration. This in fact turns out to be a false claim since holder could have chosen either a civilian court or a military tribunal. He chose the former. There is no doubt this guy is going to be found guilty, guilt is a forgone conclusion. The value Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab from the time he was caught is as an intelligence asset. But this confused administration got it wrong. Something that would not have happened with the former adminstration.
This quote goes to the lie that the administration hands were tied in dealing with the Christmas day bomber.
WASHINGTON (AP) — Attorney General Eric Holder said Wednesday he made the decision to carge the Nigerian terror suspect in the civilian system with no objection from all the other relevant departments of the U.S. government.
In a letter to Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell, the attorney general wrote that the FBI told its partners in the intelligence community on Christmas Day and again the next day that Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab would be charged criminally.
You are the best I’ve ever seen at turning crap into a silk purse. And I mean that as a compliment. So take a crack at my so far unanswered question at the beginning of the thread.
‘What does Obama have going for him?’
Bill Clinton had street-smarts, was pragmantic and a survivor in a grifter sort of way, and knew his weakenesses and limitations.
Bush was single minded in his focus on the WOT, was a very decent man, believed in the individual, and had a good right hand man.
What qualities does Obama possess that can turn the tide on a declining trajectory? I sincerely want some Hope and Change.
This posts shows there was no procedure in place to move Richard Reid into a military court. The needed procedures were put in place by the Bush administration. Moreover, it was a choice of this adminstration give Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab miranda rights (that’s right give, since he was not intitally entitled to them). In doing so they eliminated the ability to bring in outside intelligence experts on Al Quida in00 Yemen to ask questions in a timely manner.
This adminstration blew it by not intitally taking the issue serious enough. Janet Napolitano said “the system worked” and president Obama flew off the cuff and claimed Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab (UFA) was an “isolated extremist.” But he was not isolated. He was the hand of Al Quida trying to attack the United States again.
The one ray of hope is that this administration seems able to learn and hopfully they will throw their left wing supporter under the bus and have a decent 1 term presidency.
What of Richard Reid, the “shoe bomber,” who was warned of his Miranda rights and prosecuted in a civilian court? He was arrested in December 2001, before procedures were put in place that would have allowed for an outcome that might have included not only conviction but also exploitation of his intelligence value, if possible. His case does not recommend the same procedure in Abdulmutallab’s.
…
There was thus no legal or policy compulsion to treat Abdulmutallab as a criminal defendant, at least initially, and every reason to treat him as an intelligence asset to be exploited promptly. The way to do that was not simply to have locally available field agents question him but, rather, to get in the room people who knew about al-Qaeda in Yemen, people who could obtain information, check that information against other available data and perhaps get feedback from others in the field before going back to Abdulmutallab to follow up where necessary, all the while keeping secret the fact of his cooperation. Once his former cohorts know he is providing information, they can act to make that information useless.
Nor is it an answer to say that Abdulmutallab resumed his cooperation even after he was warned of his rights. He did that after five weeks, when his family was flown here from Nigeria. The time was lost, and with it possibly useful information. Disclosing that he had resumed talking only compounded the problem by letting his former cohorts know that they had better cover their tracks.
Sammy you goof the West Coast is going through a much warmer than normal winter with the Seattle area not getting any snow at all, except maybe a dusting at night. Whistler is a year around ski resort which would normally have a base many, many feet thick by now. As it is they have been stockpiling snow and working the snow making machines non-stop. Only idiots would take local conditions in that part of North America between the Mississippi and the Atlantic Ocean are counter-evidence of a change that if it is happening will have real world effects. The storm argument is the most ridiculous piece of special pleading I have even seen. Hundreds of millions of people are tuning into an Olympics marked by remarkeable unseasonable mild temperatures and you are doing the equivalent of looking at your window and going “Nah, couldn’t be, its cold and snowy here”.
Those procedures were also not in place when the first detainees were sent to Gitmo in early January, but that didn’t stop the Administration from sending them there. The fact is that you and conservative talkingheads like Krauthammer are hanging your argument on a dishonest distinction. It was the procedures for the establishment and operation of military tribunals that were not in place at the time of Reid’s indictment. But that’s a phony argument because the fact that military tribunal procedures were not yet in place did not prevent the Administration from sending detainees to Gitmo in anticipation of processing them through tribunals once those procedures were in place. So you’re making a dishonest argument. There was nothing that prevented the Administration from sending Reid to Gitmo before his 16 Jan 2002 indictment. Detainees were already at Gitmo.
Obama is smarter than Bush. He has a smarter team around him. He actually thinks about issues. Bush prided himself on not thinking….he even bragged about how he never second guessed any of his decisions. Obama doesn’t seem to let emotions get the better of him. All of those are strengths. Where Obama is weak is that he doesn’t have the killer instinct of an LBJ.
As to Bush being a decent person. I’m not so sure. He clearly had some drug and alcohol issues in his past. And while I would agree that he’s been a good husband lately, let’s not forget that Laura Bush came close to leaving him at one point. But Bush’s worst feature is his indifference towards other people’s suffering. He used to torture animals when he was a kid…possibly because of the way his parents handled the death of Dubya’s sister when he was a small kid. In any event, I find it hard to think of someone as a “decent” person after hearing what Bush said about a death row inmate. Joking about someone’s execution is not funny. And then Bush lied about it. At first he denied it until the actual tape came out in his Tucker Carlson interview.
By December the CIA was operating secret prisons around the world. It was openly known that some prisoners were being held aboard ships and perhaps ground facilities at Diego Garcia. In addition the military has any number of secure prison facilities in Charleston and at Fort Leavenworth, they even have Death Row capabilities. This notion that we didn’t have military facilities in place for Reid is just stupid.
But when Mukasey was a federal judge, he made the opposite arguments. In 2002, the Bush administration detained Jose Padilla at Chicago’s O’Hare Airport, publicly labeled him The Dirty Bomber, declared him an “enemy combatant,” transferred him to military custody, and refused to charge him or even to allow him access to a lawyer. When a lawsuit was brought on Padilla’s behalf, Mukasey was the assigned judge, and he ordered the Bush administration to allow Padilla access to a lawyer. When the Bush administration dithered and basically refused (asking Mukasey to reconsider), Mukasey issued a lengthy Opinion and Order threatening to impose the conditions himself and explaining that Padilla’s constitutional right to a lawyer was clear and nonnegotiable. So resounding was Mukasey’s defense of Padilla’s right to a lawyer that, when he was initially nominated as Attorney General, many anti-Bush legal analysts — including me — cited Mukasey’s ruling in Padilla to argue that he was one of the better choices given the other right-wing alternatives. Indeed, I analyzed his decision in Padilla at length to argue that, at least in that case, Mukasey “displayed an impressive allegiance to the rule of law and constitutional principles over fealty to claims of unlimited presidential power,” and that he “was more than willing to defy the Bush administration and not be intimidated by threats that enforcing the rule of law would prevent the President from stopping the Terrorists.” What’s most striking is that, in the Padilla case, Mukasey emphatically rejected the very arguments he is now making to attack Obama. The Bush DOJ repeatedly insisted that Mukasey — by allowing Padilla access to a lawyer — would destroy their ability to interrogate him and obtain life-saving intelligence, thus endangering all Americans. As Mukasey put it: the Bush DOJ is “none too subtle in cautioning this court against going too far in the protection of this detainee’s rights, suggesting at one point that permitting Padilla to consult with a lawyer ‘risks that plans for future attacks will go undetected‘.”
Mukassy rejected that argument at the time and ruled against the Bush Administration. In the current Op-Ed he is effectively acting of counsel for the Bush Administration, back when he was a more independent actor he saw all of this in a different light.
First of all you might be thinking that I dislike you given the tone of my response to you. This is not true, I don’t dislike you personally, but I dislike your bullshit.
Your last post does nothing to dig you out of the hole you make for yourself.
1. You claimed the current attorney general was bound to process the Christmas Bomber want-to-be in civilian court and that his hands were tied by policies from the Bush administration. I showed this to be false and that the Attorney General had the discretion on how to treat him. And so far you have not provided any links that support your claim.
2. I claimed that the procedures to move Richard Reid into military control were not in place in 2001. I provided a statement from a former U.S. Attorney General to back me up. You provided nothing. 3, My claim (which is the way it is) is that the procedures were not in place, the FBI generally don’t do physical interrogations that produce timely information, which was deemed to be a deficiency so the policy was changed. The Richard Reid case among other were the motivation to change the system and that’s what was done.
Your post did zero to contradict anything that I have said on this issue today.
My point is that the Obama apologists mislead and lie when they claim that the Bush Administration would have treated the Chrismas bomber the same as the shoe bomber based on the way Richard Reid was processed back in December 2001.
1. I did not say the Attorney General was bound to process the Xmas bomber in civilian courts. I said that the FBI was bound by the previous AG’s procedures to follow certain guidelines regarding interrogations and the reading of Miranda rights. The decision to process him in a civilian or military court is a completely different issue, although you seem to be getting them confused. The Obama Administration clearly opposes the military tribunal right. And I agree. But that’s a completely different issue than how the FBI handled the interrogation and Miranda rights thing. See the difference?
2. You did not claim that the procedures to move Reid into military control were not in place. Maybe you should go back and doublecheck Krauthammer’s exact wording on this issue, because he’s the one on the right that’s been pushing this line of argument. The actual claim by Krauthammer is deceptive and intended to fool those not paying close attention. What is true is that the Administration did not have procedures in place to govern the actual military tribunals themselves, which is not the same thing as the procedures for moving the detainees to Gitmo. As I said, the first Gitmo detainees arrived on 11 Jan 2002, which was 5 days before Reid was indicted. There was nothing to prevent Team Bush from transferring Reid to Gitmo during that 5 day period. The Bush Administration claimed that it did not need to have tribunal procedures in place prior to actually moving detainees to Gitmo. Again, see the difference?
3. The FBI seems to have a better track record than either the military or CIA (or their contractors) in obtaining information. The CIA did not get any new information from KSM that the FBI didn’t get through normal questioning. The CIA did get a lot of bad intelligence which turned out to be false and cost the lives of a lot of American soldiers when the CIA tortured one radical cleric. And again, the FBI had already obtained the actual facts before the torturing. The FBI got a lot of useful information from the Xmas bomber. The FBI’s record is pretty good. Jack Bauer’s record is mostly just a TV show. The claim that the FBI doesn’t get timely information was just Cheney fantasies. As we all saw on today’s This Week show, Dick Cheney is still as clueless as ever.
And I don’t think you dislike me, but I do think you find me very frustrating.
I have been associated with the US military since Vietnam.
I am retired from the reserve of the Air Force. I am also retired from DoD civil service.
I get a huge kick when you all say Reid or any “enemy” or “illegal” combatant should be handed over to the US “military” as if there is “precedent” in the US for such a thing.
But I forget in the war on Islamo Terror there is no need for due process or anything that might make you less wildly, irrationally fearful.
The last time the US dealt with “enemy combatants” or “illegal combatants” which were not part of modern governments, aside from the Nesei in WW II, was the Native Americans in the plains who got in th way of buffalo rugs, gold rushes in the Black Hills and cheap beef on federal ranges run by a few corporate cowherders.
That Cheney insists there be water boarding and the perpetrators be a new form of gestapo is extremism of the worst kind and even though St Barry Goldwater, who was trounced by LBJ, had a dictum about radicalism being okay taht was pure fascism, a direct attack on any moral basis for your brand of “Americanism”.
There is no “American” uniqueness or any shining city on a hill, Hitler stood for all this in the 1940’s!
Recall the case of Ex parte Milligan which occured during a far worse crisis than the current one the civil war. Milligan was planning to open pow camps and overthow the governments of IN,OH, and MI. He was arrested tried and sentanced to hang by a military commission, but the war ended before a date could be set, and the case proceeded to the supreme court where it ruled that if the courts were open a US citizen could not be tried by a military commission While this case is never cited in the current arguement, one could argue that Milligans plans if carried out were far more of an existential threat to the US than blowing up one plane. If the courts can be counted on to rule on such a case when they are open, are we not letting the terroists win by saying our system is not up to the task of trying these folks. (Yes the trial should likley be at Fort Levanworth, or the like, for security reasons and to squelch the media circus that will be around it, but if our system can cope with the civil war it can cope with this.
spencer – “MC — six months ago you accused me of being biased when I said the economy was bottoming.”
The situation you refer to was based on a post that you put up on August 3, 2009 which was based on July economic data, followed by two more posts on August 7 and August 8, 2009. I explained on August 7, 2009: “Spencer is certainly a capable economist who has built quite a business out of data analysis. But, Spencer has demonstrated a political bias that in my judgment is bending some of his presentations. The reality is that (1) we’re not out of the woods yet, (2) the large pump up in automobile sales is most likely a short-lived game until the economy really sparks, and (3) a better analysis of employment could include a broader presentation of where the gains are occurring, what is driving the gains, and so forth. Spencer seldom cites data sources that other readers can access. And he certainly avoids interaction with those who provide comments on his main posts at AB, yet has time to make comments at other blogs. I’ve talked to Spencer and I like him, but I am not impressed with his overall efforts at Rdan’s blog. He knows the material. He could present more than one-sided presentations if he wanted to do so. Bottom line, he could do better if he cared.” Friday, August 07, 2009, 11:03:44 PM
spencer – “It seems that being biased is disagreeing with your extremely bearish expectations.”
I stated in August 2009 that we weren’t out of the woods yet.
Was I the only person at the beginning of August 2009 who was concerned about the possibility of a double dip recession? Hardly the case.
Am I the only person concerned about potential global economic problems associated with the EuroMess and China’s tightening? That may be the case at this blog.
You seem to forget some of your statements after August 2009, particularly those associated with further U.S. employment losses.
spencer – “But guess what, the economy has bottomed and it appears to be on track for a more or less normal — if weak — recovery. Most importantly, retailers are reporting that sales have been exceeding expectations and business capital spending is rebounding right after S&P 500 EPS growth turned positive, exactly as it almost always does.”
Let’s go back and review what you stated, beginning in July 2009. See my subsequent comment post for a record of what you did and did not state.
spencer – “Yes, the Chinese are trying to slow their economy from an extremely strong pace to only just strong. This may dampen commodity prices, and more importantly keep oil prices in check. This could allow consumer real incomes to grow and financed continued growth in consumer spending. I see a slowing of Chinese growth as a good thing for the US, but you are free to see it as a disaster.”
I said that it’s interesting that another global crisis may be unfolding and no one is piecing together the implications of a China slowdown coupled together with EU’s foot dragging. The effects of such may lead to a double dip recession as I mentioned in comments under Rebecca’s last post. I made more specific statements under her main post.
spencer – “Now, after 6 months of my being expectations being right and your forecast of disaster on the horizon being wrong you clearly have the right to stick with your forecast. For all I know you may turn out to be right in the end.”
Now you’re faking it. I never made a forecast, let alone one that forecast a disaster on the horizon. I simply stated in August that we weren’t out of the woods yet.
When did you make a forecast that you posted at Angry Bear? If so, what is the link?
If your “expectations” were right, then you must have expected that unemployment would exceed 10 percent in the months after your August statements, and you must have expected automobile related production to decline thereafter. I don’t recall that you indicated that employment would be worse after the July economic data was released or that automobile related production would later decline when you made your statements in August.
Let’s go back and review what you said, beginning in July 2009. See my subsequent comment post for a record of what you did and did not state.
spencer – “You are right, I have not written about the problem with the Euro. If I had, I would have been writing about the foolishness of the CNBC screaming heads that were telling everyone to sell the dollar and buy the Euro when it was obvious that the Euro faced exactly the type of problems we are now seeing. Remember, in 1931 it was the failure of an Austrian bank that triggered the second leg down of the great 1929-33economic collapse. But hopefully, unlike in the 1930, the Greek problems will not cause the Fed to tighten.”
You’re not the only one who hasn’t written about the EuroMess, or China’s tightening, for that matter. […]
spencer – “But guess what, the economy has bottomed and it appears to be on track for a more or less normal — if weak — recovery. Most importantly, retailers are reporting that sales have been exceeding expectations and business capital spending is rebounding right after S&P 500 EPS growth turned positive, exactly as it almost always does.”
spencer – “Now, after 6 months of my being expectations being right and your forecast of disaster on the horizon being wrong you clearly have the right to stick with your forecast. For all I know you may turn out to be right in the end.”
You’re forcing us to do too much work to come up with our own conclusions.
If someone 6 months ago said the economy was bottoming out this would have been just before the economy experienced a quarter of over 5 percent growth. So what’s wrong with that.
I provided the bottom line with my paragraph. But If readers want to review the three main posts concerned, I provided the links.
Spencer’s main posts are general brief, so the reading isn’t hard. There are only 68 comments for the three main posts.
Others need to draw their own conclusions if they want to compare what spencer and others actually said. I know what spencer did and did not state. I also know what I stated under his main posts. Others, though, may not. Hence, the three little links.
3000 Dow In 2010: Is He Mad? – Huffington Post – excerpts
February 12, 2010 06:09 PM
“In early March of 44 B.C., a soothsayer warned Julius Caesar about the Ides of March. Unfortunately, Caesar ignored the warning, and we all know the rest of the sad tale Harry Dent Jr., a former consultant to Fortune 100 companies and presently publisher of HS Dent Forecast, a monthly investment newsletter in Tampa, Fla., sees a similar kind of fate for the stock market, although he has expanded the time frame of his Ides of March scenario to somewhere between early March and late April.
Basically, Dent sees a series of “ticking time bombs,” both here and abroad that will intensify world-wide financial turmoil.
Let’s start with one of the stock market’s biggest current worries, European debt fears, which embrace such countries as Greece, Portugal, Spain, Ireland and Italy. Dent takes these financial concerns a couple of frightening steps further. He not only sees massive debt crises in the U.S., Europe and east Asia, but a series of defaults, as well, in Latin America, the Middle East and Africa due to a commodity bust which he believes will worsen into at least early 2013 and possibly into early 2015…
His wrap-up advice to his newsletter subscribers is ominous. In brief: “Get ready for the most extreme two years of your lifetime–the debt crisis of late 2010 to late 2012. If you raise cash by selling assets, cutting costs and focusing on your business (or selling it), you will be highly rewarded.”
http://tinyurl.com/yey3afd
“Caesar ignored the warning, and we all know the rest of the sad tale”
Why not kill Ceasar? Roman law prohibited a general from bringing his army into Rome, specifically to prevent a popular general from overthrowing the republic. Ceaser was in in violation of this law when he crossed the Rubicon river with his legion fresh from having ethnically cleansed Gaul.
If genral betrayus were to attempt a milatary coop and some politician grew some fuzzies and stabbed him, what would be wrong with that? Machiavelli although better know for his book the Prince, seeks to vindicate Brutus in his magnum opus “the discourses”.
By now everyone has heard the charge by the left that republicans are hypocrites when they say the Christmas bomber should not have given miranda rights. The basis of charge is that Richard Reid (the shoe bomber) was treated the same way under the Bush administration. However, this is a false comparison since when Richard Reid attempted to blow up flight 63 it was before the Bush administration with a deliberate due process had set up the mechanism to deal with terrorist non military combatants.
Richard Reid attempted his mass murder on December 22, 2001. Gitmo was not opened until 2002. Reid made it apparent that the current system was inadequate and the system needed to be changed to process the new threat from holy warriors. So yet again, when you look more closely a liberal charge you find out they are selling nonesense. Again, Reid came along before the Gitmo interrogation and detention camp was opened for business.
Are there any economists left ?
The problem with health care, according to microeconics 101, is that health care providers and the insurance companies they rode in on, are monopolists. Duh !
They maximize profits by limiting supply because they can charge a higher price. Duh !
They have cornered the market through liscensing, restricted educational opportunities, law, and hubris.
Cantab,
If there is another terrorist attack, and it gets connected back to this guy, it will be the end of Obama.
How did you Dems foist this Obama joker on the country? We already knew he had no experience (in anything), and no accomplishments (in anything). Now we realize he has no management skills, and no common sense. So what does he got? Oh yeah, he is good at reading off a teleprompter. Well that is ringing hollow already.
Please, someone, tell me what he has going for him. Give me some hope.
cursed,
Where you been?
The proper way to treat Petraues and Mc Chrystal was to fire them both. WHat commander in cheif would put up with their insolence, and attempts at coup? The UCMJ certainly has the rule.
BTW by the time Julius came across the Rubicon the republic was no more such than the US today.
Contab/Sammy,
Ya’all neocon nazis will not be happy until any ISLAMO-TERRIST non person anywhere in the world is remanded to your incarnation the Gestapo.
Why not just throw the US constitution away?
As Ben Franklin observed: Any fool who would “trade his rights for security, deserves neither.”
Good thing ya’all were not around in 1775
It is no wonder the Tea Baggers are opposed to government run healthcare, when it is so painfully obvious how our government run educational system has failed them.
Sammy,
If there is another terrorist attack, and it gets connected back to this guy, it will be the end of Obama.
I think this is true but my point was to highlight the timing of the Richard Reid incident with respect to the opening of Gitmo for terrorists. Richard Reid happened before Gitmo and he provided more motivation to change the rules and was not an execption to the new regime.
Cantab,
It was wrong for the Bush administration to Mirandize Reid too. But Bush’s determination and sincerity in preventing another terrorist attack was apparent to everyone, even his political enemies, and so he gets a pass on this from the public. Remember the flight suit? and the “Bring it on!”
BHO does not have that reputation or record. In fact he projects a lack of seriousness, or even weakness, on the issue. Remember his world “Blame America World Syncophacy Tour?” And now we have the KSM trial circus, in which 0 has promised KSM a fair trial, after which he will be hung.
He has greatly exposed himself.
It interesting that another global crisis may be unfolding and very few reading this blog have said a word about it.
Rebecca is the only main poster devoting any considerable attention to the EuroMess. No one is piecing together the implications of a China slowdown coupled together with EU’s foot dragging.
There was a time on this blog when a number of readers were actively tuned in to major global economic issues. It appears that those readers are gone if the lack of comments on such matters is an indication…
Movie Guy,
I have written a fair amount about global issues of late, but, I do not foresee a ‘China slowdown’. So perhaps I am not fitting into your ‘those readers’ category? There is a great post re. China at Econospeak by Brenda Rosser and Rdan provided a link recently but I don’t remember where. Easy to find the site and the post though.
The two reprobates pictured above endager my ability to pursue life liberty and happiness more then all the rag heads the world over.
I really don’t understand the Partisan devide. Gates Bernake and Geithner are still running the economy and the milatary. They both wanted to steal our prosperity with TARP. They both want to bring in 1,500,000 legal immigrants to displace American workers. They both want to legalize all the illegal aliens. They persue the same trade policies that have evisorated the American economy. They both like bombing wemon and childeren. They both grovel at the feet of AIPAC. There both as full of s**t as a Christmas goose. What is the difference? Screw um both
rl love,
Agreed. But I didn’t see you comment on either of Rebecca’s posts. True, I commented on only one of them, but I asked that the issue be pursued.
China’s forced slowdown is happening now.
Movie Guy,
I doubt that anyone can say with any certainty but they, China, has a new trade agreement that allegedly removed thousands of tariffs (ASEAN). It is hard to call.
Movie Guy,
The Global collapse only slowed the Chinese economy by a few %, so if by “forced slowdown”, you mean the tightening of lending, it is good to remember that wage inflation is not likely with a half a billion reserve workers. Their only serious problem was our not consuming, and the ASEAN deal may have solved that for now. They have also been busy on trade deals in L. America and I suppose Africa. They act, we react.
Movie Guy,
It interesting that another global crisis may be unfolding and very few reading this blog have said a word about it.
The top story around the world this morning is the Nato offensive in Afghanistan. I don’t have an opinion on this strategy and wont until it succeeds or fails. Another big story is the opening of the Vancouver Olympics and the death of the luger. We’re in the process of foregetting about Haiti, even with its 217,000 deaths. China’s economy is growing to fasts so they’re slowing it down. Greece is growing to slow and they have too many on the government payroll and have a financial crisis. However, the markets don’t indicate this will ruin the economy. 20 Russians dead in an industry shootout (now that’s a hostile takeover). We had a big snow storm last week, Washington was shut down for the better part of the week, and boy 6 declares snowmaggedon. Clinton had a heart problem, went to the hospital, but now seems OK. Toyota is still recallying cars every day which is bad for them but good for the U.S. Auto industry (providing we don’t screw up too).
The election of Scott Brown appears to have stopped healthcare, at least for now, and the new Gridlock appears to have caused a lull in Washington and in the blogoshere. A lull is a lull but lulls don’t last.
MC — six months ago you accused me of being biased when I said the economy was bottoming.
It seems that being biased is disagreeing with your extremely bearish expectations.
But guess what, the economy has bottomed and it appears to be on track for a more or less normal — if weak — recovery. Most importantly, retailers are reporting that sales have been exceeding expectations and business capital spending is rebounding right after S&P 500 EPS growth turned positive, exactly as it almost always does.
Yes, the Chinese are trying to slow their economy from an extremely strong pace to only just strong. This may dampen commodity prices, and more importantly keep oil prices in check. This could allow consumer real incomes to grow and financed continued growth in consumer spending. I see a slowing of Chinese growth as a good thing for the US, but you are free to see it as a disaster.
Now, after 6 months of my being expectations being right and your forecast of disaster on the horizon being wrong you clearly have the right to stick with your forecast. For all I know you may turn out to be right in the end.
You are right, I have not written about the problem with the Euro. If I had, I would have been writing about the foolishness of the CNBC screaming heads that were telling everyone to sell the dollar and buy the Euro when it was obvious that the Euro faced exactly the type of problems we are now seeing. Remember, in 1931 it was the failure of an Austrian bank that triggered the second leg down of the great 1929-33economic collapse. But hopefully, unlike in the 1930, the Greek problems will not cause the Fed to tighten.
For years I’ve been forecasting that we were going to have a great stagnation similar to the Long Depression of the late 19th century or the Japanese experience. It is just so depressing to see it unfolding that I don’t feel like commenting on every detail. But note, that in neither the long depression or the Japanese experience there was not a massive collapse of the economy like we saw over the last two years. So we could experience a couple of years of a normal economic recovery and still be in a long term sub-par stagantion scenario.
Bend over, lube yourself and prepare to be r**** by flower shop owners, chocolate companies, restaurants, jewelry stores, and other ancillary korporations.
Dear me. I thought the Republican candidate in 2008 was some dude named McBride or McDuffy or something like that. You seem to have confused him with a sanitation worker or something judging from the outfit — looks vaguely familiar — when selectitng images.
Anyway McWhatever was pretty forgetable so it’s probably OK that you have forgotten him. And he and that marginally literate bimbo he teamed up with could manage to make a stuffed turkey look presidential — which explains Obama. If you look back at the major party presidential candidates in the past three decades or so, Obama starts to look a lot better. You’d like to have Al Gore or Bob Dole dealing with two stupid wars and a major economic crisis? It’d be nice to have a great leader, but what the hell, we could easily do a lot worse and have done so repeatedly in the past.
A “Normal Recovery”? Betcha not.
If you mean free fall is over — at least until something major breaks — yeah that seems likely although I’m very skeptical that the banks are anywhere near as solvent as they claim to be. They are still holding a lot of probably quite unrealistically priced “assets” that don’t seem likely to be able to get rid of without write major offs. And housing and auto sales are still somewhat below dismal. Construction — residential and commercial is moribund.
The US economy has become dependent on consumer spending, and lately on consumer spending fueled by borrowing. Obviously, that can’t and won’t continue forever. Maybe 60-40 that’s over for a long time. Which means — I think — something like a long hospital stay and a lot of physical therapy for the economy rather than a robust or even “normal” recovery.
And energy — well oil anyway — prices are quite likely headed upwards maybe 10-15% a year on average for a long time. The cocktail napkin says that takes maybe 1% a year off our already dismal real GDP growth. Add in the drag from a lot of foreclosures and maybe 1% a year from new consumer loans that aren’t being made. That is not have a recipie for future boom times.
I don’t think the Fed is going to tighten anyway, but if they did, I’m not sure how much affect it would have.
Cantab & sammy,
Unless I’m mistaken, the Xmas Bomber was processed and read his Miranda rights IAW procedures put in place by the outgoing Bush Administration in the fall of 2008. So are you criticizing Obama for not recognizing that Bush was weak on terrorists and the Bush policies should have been overturned? Is that your argument?
MG,
I for one don’t have anything particularly intelligent or profound to add to the EuroMess discussion. It’s a mess. Most macroeconomic policy prescriptions assume that the entire world’s economy isn’t correlated in the same cyclical direction. So traditionally a country in recession would use monetary policy or currency depreciation to “beggar thy neighbor” who was not in recession. The EuroMess is kind of a perfect storm on a number of counts. Not only is this a global slump making “beggar thy neighbor” policies problematic, but Europe gave up one powerful tool (independent monetary policy) that would have been available to combat recessions. That leaves fiscal policy as the only remaining tool. Add to that the fact that a lot of the growth in Europe was in the financial sector (e.g., London and Dublin), and the fact that the world isn’t really big enough to have more than one financial capital (New York), and you’ve got a problem. And then the one thing that probably could have helped Spain the most was a cap and trade agreement (the Spanish are big players in wind energy development), and that is flopping around after Copenhagen.
Slugs,
No directive by the Bush administration forced the Chistmas bomber to be treated as a civilian defendent. That was this administration’s brilliant ideal.
Anyway the key point was the left misleading their own low information voting base by saying Richard Reid was a precident for the way the Christmas bomber should be treated. But his is a false comparison since Richard Reid was arrested in december 2001 and Gitmo did not get going until 2002. This lie works on the left because the left consists of mainly low information voters. Fox may be the only network you can trust now.
This is funny.
With the blizzards in the East Coast we are hearing from global warming fanatics that this simply is another manifestation of global warming. As counterintuitive as this may seem, I wrote this up to explain it.
This is the way science works for the supporters of AGW
Increased warming means higher temperatures and therefore less snow. But increased warming means more water vapor in the atmosphere leading to more precipitation. Therefore AGW can cause big blizzards. So too little snow or too much snow is an indication of global warming.
More warming can mean glaciers will shrink. But more precipitation means glaciers can grow. Therefore if glaciers are growing or shrinking it means global warming is happening.
More warming means more energy for hurricanes and therefore more and stronger hurricanes are in the future. But more warming also means more wind sheer which cuts off hurricanes and can mean fewer hurricanes. So more or fewer hurricanes is caused by global warming.
More water vapor means more clouds and more precipitation. More clouds and precipitation causes cooling which could lead to global cooling. So if it is warming or cooling, it is proof of global warming.
http://1202013.blogspot.com/
Cantab,
No directive by the Bush administration forced the Chistmas bomber to be treated as a civilian defendent. That was this administration’s brilliant ideal.
Actually, this is wrong. A regulation is binding on govt employees and has the force of law unless there is a specific regulation that reverses it. The Bush regulation from late 2008 was the standing procedure. Obama simply continued the Bush policy. So basically your entire screed is pointless.
BTW, I’m glad the Bush Administration got things right in late 2008. Better late than never.
slugs,
You lie. There is no such law.
This is not a definitive link, but I’m still looking. The link below says it’s up to the discretion of the Justice Department on if the individual is handled by the military or is to face civilian justice. This contradicts what slugs just said. Slugs with his factoids is trying to make fools out of everyone here, regardless if they are on the left or the right. He thinks everyone is a low information voter. I just pointed out the lie of the left on the Richard Reid/Christmas bomber comparison. It looks like he can’t deal with it.
http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2009/11/24/holder-defends-civilian-trials-for-terror-suspects.html
Since Obama took office 10 months ago, the Justice Department has been deciding which suspected terrorists will be handled by the military and which will face civilian trials, as the prison at Guantánamo Bay continues to empty at Obama’s direction.
Sammy,
Remember on any issue dealing with global warming it’s always. Man did it. Things are worse then we expected. The effects will be devestating. These Scientific outcomes have been very predictable, almost pre-determined.
So here is Gibbs feeding the low information voters on MSNBC (they really ought to switch to Fox). In this statement he says that Obama is being held to a different standard and uses Richard Reid to make his point. Yet Richard Reid attempted his murders in December 2001 and Gitmo was not opened until 2002. I wonder if I can call in to MSNBC next time one of their loons is making this case again.
http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/80703-gibbs-swipes-at-gop-for-double-standard-on-handling-terror
Gibbs swipes at Republicans for double standard on handling of terrorist trials
By Michael O’Brien – 02/11/10 10:00 AM ET
GOP lawmakers are holding the Obama administration to a different standard than its predecessor when it comes to handling terror trials, White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs argued Thursday.
Gibbs lashed out at Republican critics, who have assailed the administration’s handling of the attempted Christmas Day bombing, as having an entirely different standard for President Barack Obama than they did for President George W. Bush. “What we have here is politicians who’ve decided, eight years after they agreed that everything that was done with Richard Reid somehow is now done all wrong because it’s a different president,” Gibbs said during an appearance on MSNBC.
Former Vice President Cheney will appear on ABC’s “This Week” on Sunday, and it’s a safe bet what he will say: President Barack Obama projects weakness to terrorists and puts American lives at risk.
It’s the kind of brutal charge — nuance-free and politically explosive — that has become a Cheney specialty since he left office 13 months ago.
Everytime the Obama administration does something like move the terrorist trials out of New York or delay the closing of Gitmo they they show they are Cheney’s bayatch.
Cantab,
Try reading your own link. It’s about how to handle GITMO detainees who were picked up on the battlefield. The Xmas bomber doesn’t fit that category. The relevant procedures were written by Attorney General Mukasey at the end of the Bust Administration. Those are the relevant procedures for processing suspected domestic terrorists. You should at least try to get your facts right if you want to graduate from low information voter status.
You’re lying again. Ergo just a statement without support.
2slugs said: “And then the one thing that probably could have helped Spain the most was a cap and trade agreement (the Spanish are big players in wind energy development), and that is flopping around after Copenhagen.” Spain is a participant in the EU’s ETS (their version of our Cap & Trade.) How precisely would Spain benefit from our’s?
More importantly how would we or Spain benefit from a system (world-wide trade in carbon credits) that has recently been shown to be rife with fraud?
2slugs,
Then why did the FBI interrogate the dude for 50 minutes prior to the Justice Dept stepping in and Mirandizing the guy? If the directive really has the “force of law” then those FBI guys must be in some legal trouble.
Besides, I don’t care whose policy it is, it is a WRONG POLICY. And, in case you haven’t noticed with all the blaming Bush for everything, 0bama is the president. It’s his responsibility, and he will be measured, so he better get a grip.
***So too little snow or too much snow is an indication of global warming***
As is a normal amount of snow, I’m sure although I’d have no idea why. Anyway, the weather guy on Vermont Public Radio informed me that yesterday is the first morning in over a century when there was snow on the ground in all 50 states. I’m sure that also proves the planet is warming dramatically.
sammy,
As I understand it, they interviewed him for 50 minutes because their immediate concern was to try and determine if there was another “ticking bomb”. He was spilling his guts during that 50 minute interview. The law isn’t that the FBI has to give him his Miranda rights, it’s that whatever he says prior to that cannot be used in court against him. The FBI wasn’t worried about getting a prosecution…afterall, they had dozens of eyewitnesses on the plane as well as physical evidence. The FBI was immediately concerned with gaining intelligence information and not Mirandizing him seems to have served that purpose. He only clammed up after he was issued his Miranda rights. So actually I think this whole episode worked out pretty well for the FBI. It was quite clever. They ended up getting the best of both worlds. They got extremely good intelligence without having to Mirandize him and they managed to do so without really jeopardizing their court case because they already had plenty of evidence to get a conviction even without his statement.
You may not care whose policy it was, but the point of Cantab’s original post was to try and pretend that it wasn’t Bush’s policy because the Richard Reid shoebomber case was pre-Gitmo. What Cantab forgot was that the FBI procedures were not based on the Reid precedent, they were based on Mukasey’s Oct 2008 guidelines. The Obama Administration had the good sense to retain those procedures. So I agree that ultimately it is Obama’s responsibility. But since I’m arguing that the procedures were in fact quite successful, doesn’t it makes sense that Bush should also get some of the credit? I’m not making an argument against Team Bush. I’m saying that this was one of the few things that Team Bush actually got right. Let’s give credit where credit’s due. Why do you want to let the Obama Administration be the only ones to get credit for a successful interrogation? Doesn’t make sense.
CoRev,
Spain would benefit because it would increase their export earnings and because it would increase Spanish GNP (as opposed to just GDP) due to Spanish owned wind power companies with plants in other countries. Spain needs export earnings and being tied to the Euro is depressing Spanish exports. So if you can’t depreciate the currency, the next best thing is to stimulate demand for your export products.
Are you saying Spain would export wind energy? Why are they not already exporting any EXCESS energy? If there is anything for Spain to export from a US Cap & Trade then what is it? If you are considering carbon credits an export then I think your logic is faulty.
They did it again. Vice president made the Richard Reid/Christmas bomber comparision. I already explained that Reid attempted his murders before Gitmo was running. And naturally David Gregory just let it go by.
Biden went on to use that oldie but goodie that Cheney was entitled to his own opinion but not his own facts. But it really looks like Biden is the misleading one
CoRev,
I am talking about the physical equipment; i.e., the actual blades and turbines as well as the actual construction. I’m not talking about carbon credits are anything like that. If you’ve ever seen all those huge blades going down the interstate, almost all of those are manufactured by Spanish owned plants located in the US. The relationship is similar to Japanese owned auto factories in Tennessee and Alabama. Spain is way out in front of the rest of the world in terms of wind power technology and delaying cap & trade hurts Spain. And while Greece is the country getting most of the attention right now, the Spanish situation is probably more grave because Spain’s economy is almost 4 times as large as Greece’s economy.
Cantab,
This is one of the stupidest arguments you’ve ever made. The first prisoners from Afghanistan arrived at Gitmo on 11 Jan 2002. That means the facilities, albeit it temporary, were in place long before their actual physical arrival. And Bush announced on 13 Nov 2001 that prisoners would be subjet to detention and handled by military trials. And in Nov 2001 Military.com was already reporting that Gitmo is where they were headed. So the policy was in place long before the shoe bomber ever showed up. Richard Reid was not indicted until 16 Jan 2002, which was after Gitmo was up and running. So the Bush Administration had every opportunity to ship him off to Gitmo if they had really wanted to do so. You’re making yourself look like a laughingstock here. You can’t even get the timelines right.
The Richard Reid case showed that in 2001 the current system was inadequate to meet priority of extracting as much information as possible from terrorist enemy combatants.
The Bush administration created a procedure where the Attorney General has the decision to process an individual in either a criminal or civilian court. You suggested in a earlier post that this administrations hands were tied because of decision made during the Bush administration. This in fact turns out to be a false claim since holder could have chosen either a civilian court or a military tribunal. He chose the former. There is no doubt this guy is going to be found guilty, guilt is a forgone conclusion. The value Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab from the time he was caught is as an intelligence asset. But this confused administration got it wrong. Something that would not have happened with the former adminstration.
This quote goes to the lie that the administration hands were tied in dealing with the Christmas day bomber.
http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2010-02-03-holder-christmas-terror-suspect_N.htm
WASHINGTON (AP) — Attorney General Eric Holder said Wednesday he made the decision to carge the Nigerian terror suspect in the civilian system with no objection from all the other relevant departments of the U.S. government.
In a letter to Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell, the attorney general wrote that the
FBI told its partners in the intelligence community on Christmas Day and again the next day that Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab would be charged criminally.
2slugs,
You are the best I’ve ever seen at turning crap into a silk purse. And I mean that as a compliment. So take a crack at my so far unanswered question at the beginning of the thread.
‘What does Obama have going for him?’
Bill Clinton had street-smarts, was pragmantic and a survivor in a grifter sort of way, and knew his weakenesses and limitations.
Bush was single minded in his focus on the WOT, was a very decent man, believed in the individual, and had a good right hand man.
What qualities does Obama possess that can turn the tide on a declining trajectory? I sincerely want some Hope and Change.
This posts shows there was no procedure in place to move Richard Reid into a military court. The needed procedures were put in place by the Bush administration. Moreover, it was a choice of this adminstration give Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab miranda rights (that’s right give, since he was not intitally entitled to them). In doing so they eliminated the ability to bring in outside intelligence experts on Al Quida in00 Yemen to ask questions in a timely manner.
This adminstration blew it by not intitally taking the issue serious enough. Janet Napolitano said “the system worked” and president Obama flew off the cuff and claimed Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab (UFA) was an “isolated extremist.” But he was not isolated. He was the hand of Al Quida trying to attack the United States again.
The one ray of hope is that this administration seems able to learn and hopfully they will throw their left wing supporter under the bus and have a decent 1 term presidency.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/02/11/AR2010021103331.html
By Michael B. Mukasey
Friday, February 12, 2010
What of Richard Reid, the “shoe bomber,” who was warned of his Miranda rights and prosecuted in a civilian court? He was arrested in December 2001, before procedures were put in place that would have allowed for an outcome that might have included not only conviction but also exploitation of his intelligence value, if possible. His case does not recommend the same procedure in Abdulmutallab’s.
…
There was thus no legal or policy compulsion to treat Abdulmutallab as a criminal defendant, at least initially, and every reason to treat him as an intelligence asset to be exploited promptly. The way to do that was not simply to have locally available field agents question him but, rather, to get in the room people who knew about al-Qaeda in Yemen, people who could obtain information, check that information against other available data and perhaps get feedback from others in the field before going back to Abdulmutallab to follow up where necessary, all the while keeping secret the fact of his cooperation. Once his former cohorts know he is providing information, they can act to make that information useless.
Nor is it an answer to say that Abdulmutallab resumed his cooperation even after he was warned of his rights. He did that after five weeks, when his family was flown here from Nigeria. The time was lost, and with it possibly useful information. Disclosing that he had resumed talking only compounded the problem by letting his former cohorts know that they had better cover their tracks.
Sammy,
You are the best I’ve ever seen at turning crap into a silk purse.
It’s still crap and only appears as silk to the low information voters.
Sammy you goof the West Coast is going through a much warmer than normal winter with the Seattle area not getting any snow at all, except maybe a dusting at night. Whistler is a year around ski resort which would normally have a base many, many feet thick by now. As it is they have been stockpiling snow and working the snow making machines non-stop. Only idiots would take local conditions in that part of North America between the Mississippi and the Atlantic Ocean are counter-evidence of a change that if it is happening will have real world effects. The storm argument is the most ridiculous piece of special pleading I have even seen. Hundreds of millions of people are tuning into an Olympics marked by remarkeable unseasonable mild temperatures and you are doing the equivalent of looking at your window and going “Nah, couldn’t be, its cold and snowy here”.
Cantab,
Those procedures were also not in place when the first detainees were sent to Gitmo in early January, but that didn’t stop the Administration from sending them there. The fact is that you and conservative talkingheads like Krauthammer are hanging your argument on a dishonest distinction. It was the procedures for the establishment and operation of military tribunals that were not in place at the time of Reid’s indictment. But that’s a phony argument because the fact that military tribunal procedures were not yet in place did not prevent the Administration from sending detainees to Gitmo in anticipation of processing them through tribunals once those procedures were in place. So you’re making a dishonest argument. There was nothing that prevented the Administration from sending Reid to Gitmo before his 16 Jan 2002 indictment. Detainees were already at Gitmo.
sammy,
Obama is smarter than Bush. He has a smarter team around him. He actually thinks about issues. Bush prided himself on not thinking….he even bragged about how he never second guessed any of his decisions. Obama doesn’t seem to let emotions get the better of him. All of those are strengths. Where Obama is weak is that he doesn’t have the killer instinct of an LBJ.
As to Bush being a decent person. I’m not so sure. He clearly had some drug and alcohol issues in his past. And while I would agree that he’s been a good husband lately, let’s not forget that Laura Bush came close to leaving him at one point. But Bush’s worst feature is his indifference towards other people’s suffering. He used to torture animals when he was a kid…possibly because of the way his parents handled the death of Dubya’s sister when he was a small kid. In any event, I find it hard to think of someone as a “decent” person after hearing what Bush said about a death row inmate. Joking about someone’s execution is not funny. And then Bush lied about it. At first he denied it until the actual tape came out in his Tucker Carlson interview.
By December the CIA was operating secret prisons around the world. It was openly known that some prisoners were being held aboard ships and perhaps ground facilities at Diego Garcia. In addition the military has any number of secure prison facilities in Charleston and at Fort Leavenworth, they even have Death Row capabilities. This notion that we didn’t have military facilities in place for Reid is just stupid.
You got nothing here but desperate pleading.
This doesn’t show anything. Mukassy is a Bush apologist here. He made the exact opposite case when he was a Federal Judge
http://www.commondreams.org/headline/2010/02/12-9
But when Mukasey was a federal judge, he made the opposite arguments. In 2002, the Bush administration detained Jose Padilla at Chicago’s O’Hare Airport, publicly labeled him The Dirty Bomber, declared him an “enemy combatant,” transferred him to military custody, and refused to charge him or even to allow him access to a lawyer. When a lawsuit was brought on Padilla’s behalf, Mukasey was the assigned judge, and he ordered the Bush administration to allow Padilla access to a lawyer. When the Bush administration dithered and basically refused (asking Mukasey to reconsider), Mukasey issued a lengthy Opinion and Order threatening to impose the conditions himself and explaining that Padilla’s constitutional right to a lawyer was clear and nonnegotiable. So resounding was Mukasey’s defense of Padilla’s right to a lawyer that, when he was initially nominated as Attorney General, many anti-Bush legal analysts — including me — cited Mukasey’s ruling in Padilla to argue that he was one of the better choices given the other right-wing alternatives. Indeed, I analyzed his decision in Padilla at length to argue that, at least in that case, Mukasey “displayed an impressive allegiance to the rule of law and constitutional principles over fealty to claims of unlimited presidential power,” and that he “was more than willing to defy the Bush administration and not be intimidated by threats that enforcing the rule of law would prevent the President from stopping the Terrorists.”
What’s most striking is that, in the Padilla case, Mukasey emphatically rejected the very arguments he is now making to attack Obama. The Bush DOJ repeatedly insisted that Mukasey — by allowing Padilla access to a lawyer — would destroy their ability to interrogate him and obtain life-saving intelligence, thus endangering all Americans. As Mukasey put it: the Bush DOJ is “none too subtle in cautioning this court against going too far in the protection of this detainee’s rights, suggesting at one point that permitting Padilla to consult with a lawyer ‘risks that plans for future attacks will go undetected‘.”
Mukassy rejected that argument at the time and ruled against the Bush Administration. In the current Op-Ed he is effectively acting of counsel for the Bush Administration, back when he was a more independent actor he saw all of this in a different light.
2slugs,
That’s it??????? He is smart (evidence?), thinks about issues, and is unemotional?
We must have finally found something beyond your fantastic abilities 🙂 .
Obama is doomed.
Slubs,
First of all you might be thinking that I dislike you given the tone of my response to you. This is not true, I don’t dislike you personally, but I dislike your bullshit.
Your last post does nothing to dig you out of the hole you make for yourself.
1. You claimed the current attorney general was bound to process the Christmas Bomber want-to-be in civilian court and that his hands were tied by policies from the Bush administration. I showed this to be false and that the Attorney General had the discretion on how to treat him. And so far you have not provided any links that support your claim.
2. I claimed that the procedures to move Richard Reid into military control were not in place in 2001. I provided a statement from a former U.S. Attorney General to back me up. You provided nothing.
3, My claim (which is the way it is) is that the procedures were not in place, the FBI generally don’t do physical interrogations that produce timely information, which was deemed to be a deficiency so the policy was changed. The Richard Reid case among other were the motivation to change the system and that’s what was done.
Bruce,
Your post did zero to contradict anything that I have said on this issue today.
My point is that the Obama apologists mislead and lie when they claim that the Bush Administration would have treated the Chrismas bomber the same as the shoe bomber based on the way Richard Reid was processed back in December 2001.
Cantab,
1. I did not say the Attorney General was bound to process the Xmas bomber in civilian courts. I said that the FBI was bound by the previous AG’s procedures to follow certain guidelines regarding interrogations and the reading of Miranda rights. The decision to process him in a civilian or military court is a completely different issue, although you seem to be getting them confused. The Obama Administration clearly opposes the military tribunal right. And I agree. But that’s a completely different issue than how the FBI handled the interrogation and Miranda rights thing. See the difference?
2. You did not claim that the procedures to move Reid into military control were not in place. Maybe you should go back and doublecheck Krauthammer’s exact wording on this issue, because he’s the one on the right that’s been pushing this line of argument. The actual claim by Krauthammer is deceptive and intended to fool those not paying close attention. What is true is that the Administration did not have procedures in place to govern the actual military tribunals themselves, which is not the same thing as the procedures for moving the detainees to Gitmo. As I said, the first Gitmo detainees arrived on 11 Jan 2002, which was 5 days before Reid was indicted. There was nothing to prevent Team Bush from transferring Reid to Gitmo during that 5 day period. The Bush Administration claimed that it did not need to have tribunal procedures in place prior to actually moving detainees to Gitmo. Again, see the difference?
3. The FBI seems to have a better track record than either the military or CIA (or their contractors) in obtaining information. The CIA did not get any new information from KSM that the FBI didn’t get through normal questioning. The CIA did get a lot of bad intelligence which turned out to be false and cost the lives of a lot of American soldiers when the CIA tortured one radical cleric. And again, the FBI had already obtained the actual facts before the torturing. The FBI got a lot of useful information from the Xmas bomber. The FBI’s record is pretty good. Jack Bauer’s record is mostly just a TV show. The claim that the FBI doesn’t get timely information was just Cheney fantasies. As we all saw on today’s This Week show, Dick Cheney is still as clueless as ever.
And I don’t think you dislike me, but I do think you find me very frustrating.
I have been associated with the US military since Vietnam.
I am retired from the reserve of the Air Force. I am also retired from DoD civil service.
I get a huge kick when you all say Reid or any “enemy” or “illegal” combatant should be handed over to the US “military” as if there is “precedent” in the US for such a thing.
But I forget in the war on Islamo Terror there is no need for due process or anything that might make you less wildly, irrationally fearful.
The last time the US dealt with “enemy combatants” or “illegal combatants” which were not part of modern governments, aside from the Nesei in WW II, was the Native Americans in the plains who got in th way of buffalo rugs, gold rushes in the Black Hills and cheap beef on federal ranges run by a few corporate cowherders.
That Cheney insists there be water boarding and the perpetrators be a new form of gestapo is extremism of the worst kind and even though St Barry Goldwater, who was trounced by LBJ, had a dictum about radicalism being okay taht was pure fascism, a direct attack on any moral basis for your brand of “Americanism”.
There is no “American” uniqueness or any shining city on a hill, Hitler stood for all this in the 1940’s!
Recall the case of Ex parte Milligan which occured during a far worse crisis than the current one the civil war. Milligan was planning to open pow camps and overthow the governments of IN,OH, and MI. He was arrested tried and sentanced to hang by a military commission, but the war ended before a date could be set, and the case proceeded to the supreme court where it ruled that if the courts were open a US citizen could not be tried by a military commission While this case is never cited in the current arguement, one could argue that Milligans plans if carried out were far more of an existential threat to the US than blowing up one plane. If the courts can be counted on to rule on such a case when they are open, are we not letting the terroists win by saying our system is not up to the task of trying these folks. (Yes the trial should likley be at Fort Levanworth, or the like, for security reasons and to squelch the media circus that will be around it, but if our system can cope with the civil war it can cope with this.
Response to comments from spencer upthread.
spencer – “MC — six months ago you accused me of being biased when I said the economy was bottoming.”
The situation you refer to was based on a post that you put up on August 3, 2009 which was based on July economic data, followed by two more posts on August 7 and August 8, 2009.
I explained on August 7, 2009: “Spencer is certainly a capable economist who has built quite a business out of data analysis. But, Spencer has demonstrated a political bias that in my judgment is bending some of his presentations. The reality is that (1) we’re not out of the woods yet, (2) the large pump up in automobile sales is most likely a short-lived game until the economy really sparks, and (3) a better analysis of employment could include a broader presentation of where the gains are occurring, what is driving the gains, and so forth. Spencer seldom cites data sources that other readers can access. And he certainly avoids interaction with those who provide comments on his main posts at AB, yet has time to make comments at other blogs. I’ve talked to Spencer and I like him, but I am not impressed with his overall efforts at Rdan’s blog. He knows the material. He could present more than one-sided presentations if he wanted to do so. Bottom line, he could do better if he cared.”
Friday, August 07, 2009, 11:03:44 PM
The readers can draw their own conclusions:
Monday, August 03, 2009
July Auto Sales
http://angrybear.blogspot.com/2009/08/july-auto-sales.html
No interaction by Spencer with readers in the comment thread.
Friday, August 07, 2009
employment report
http://angrybear.blogspot.com/2009/08/employment-report.html
No interaction by Spencer with readers in the comment thread.
Employment report follow up
Posted by spencer | 8/08/2009 01:39:00 PM
http://www.angrybearblog.com/2009/08/employment-report-follow-up.html
No interaction by Spencer with readers in the comment thread.
.
Response to comments from spencer upthread.
spencer – “It seems that being biased is disagreeing with your extremely bearish expectations.”
I stated in August 2009 that we weren’t out of the woods yet.
Was I the only person at the beginning of August 2009 who was concerned about the possibility of a double dip recession? Hardly the case.
Am I the only person concerned about potential global economic problems associated with the EuroMess and China’s tightening? That may be the case at this blog.
You seem to forget some of your statements after August 2009, particularly those associated with further U.S. employment losses.
spencer – “But guess what, the economy has bottomed and it appears to be on track for a more or less normal — if weak — recovery. Most importantly, retailers are reporting that sales have been exceeding expectations and business capital spending is rebounding right after S&P 500 EPS growth turned positive, exactly as it almost always does.”
Let’s go back and review what you stated, beginning in July 2009. See my subsequent comment post for a record of what you did and did not state.
spencer – “Yes, the Chinese are trying to slow their economy from an extremely strong pace to only just strong. This may dampen commodity prices, and more importantly keep oil prices in check. This could allow consumer real incomes to grow and financed continued growth in consumer spending. I see a slowing of Chinese growth as a good thing for the US, but you are free to see it as a disaster.”
I said that it’s interesting that another global crisis may be unfolding and no one is piecing together the implications of a China slowdown coupled together with EU’s foot dragging. The effects of such may lead to a double dip recession as I mentioned in comments under Rebecca’s last post. I made more specific statements under her main post.
spencer – “Now, after 6 months of my being expectations being right and your forecast of disaster on the horizon being wrong you clearly have the right to stick with your forecast. For all I know you may turn out to be right in the end.”
Now you’re faking it. I never made a forecast, let alone one that forecast a disaster on the horizon. I simply stated in August that we weren’t out of the woods yet.
When did you make a forecast that you posted at Angry Bear? If so, what is the link?
If your “expectations” were right, then you must have expected that unemployment would exceed 10 percent in the months after your August statements, and you must have expected automobile related production to decline thereafter. I don’t recall that you indicated that employment would be worse after the July economic data was released or that automobile related production would later decline when you made your statements in August.
Let’s go back and review what you said, beginning in July 2009. See my subsequent comment post for a record of what you did and did not state.
spencer – “You are right, I have not written about the problem with the Euro. If I had, I would have been writing about the foolishness of the CNBC screaming heads that were telling everyone to sell the dollar and buy the Euro when it was obvious that the Euro faced exactly the type of problems we are now seeing. Remember, in 1931 it was the failure of an Austrian bank that triggered the second leg down of the great 1929-33economic collapse. But hopefully, unlike in the 1930, the Greek problems will not cause the Fed to tighten.”
You’re not the only one who hasn’t written about the EuroMess, or China’s tightening, for that matter. […]
Follow up to comments from spencer upthread.
spencer – “But guess what, the economy has bottomed and it appears to be on track for a more or less normal — if weak — recovery. Most importantly, retailers are reporting that sales have been exceeding expectations and business capital spending is rebounding right after S&P 500 EPS growth turned positive, exactly as it almost always does.”
spencer – “Now, after 6 months of my being expectations being right and your forecast of disaster on the horizon being wrong you clearly have the right to stick with your forecast. For all I know you may turn out to be right in the end.”
Here is a record of what spencer stated.
JULY 2009
EMPLOYMENT REPORT
Posted by spencer | 7/02/2009 09:39:00 AM
http://www.angrybearblog.com/2009/07/employment-report.html
Obama Economic Forecast
Posted by spencer | 7/03/2009 03:21:00 PM
http://www.angrybearblog.com/2009/07/obama-economic-forecast.html
Industrial production, real imports , real retail trade & inventories
Posted by spencer | 7/06/2009 11:08:00 AM
http://www.angrybearblog.com/2009/07/industrial-production-real-imports-real.html
AUGUST 2009
Stock market under Obama
Posted by spencer | 8/01/2009 09:02:00 AM
http://www.angrybearblog.com/2009/08/stock-market-under-obama.html
July Auto Sales
Posted by spencer | 8/03/2009 04:08:00 PM
http://angrybear.blogspot.com/2009/08/july-auto-sales.html
employment report
Posted by spencer | 8/07/2009 09:58:00 AM
http://angrybear.blogspot.com/2009/08/employment-report.html
Employment report follow up
Posted by spencer | 8/08/2009 01:39:00 PM
http://www.angrybearblog.com/2009/08/employment-report-follow-up.html
Mankiw quotes CBO on medical Spending
Posted by spencer | 8/11/2009 11:43:00 AM
http://www.angrybearblog.com/2009/08/mankow-quotes-cbo-on-medical-spending.html
Stock Market Valuation
Posted by spencer | 8/16/2009 10:26:00 PM
http://www.angrybearblog.com/2009/08/stock-market-valuation.html
Advance Durable Goods Orders
Posted by spencer | 8/26/2009 11:51:00 AM
http://www.angrybearblog.com/2009/08/advance-durable-goods-orders.html
SEPTEMBER 2009
employment report
Posted by spencer | 9/04/2009 09:11:00 AM
http://www.angrybearblog.com/2009/09/employment-report.html
International Health Care Spending Comparisons
Posted by spencer | 9/15/2009 02:31:00 PM
http://www.angrybearblog.com/2009/09/international-health-care-spending.html
Industrial Production
Posted by spencer | 9/16/2009 09:53:00 AM
spencer,
I responded to you further down the thread.
Movie Guy,
You’re forcing us to do too much work to come up with our own conclusions.
If someone 6 months ago said the economy was bottoming out this would have been just before the economy experienced a quarter of over 5 percent growth. So what’s wrong with that.
Cantab,
I provided the bottom line with my paragraph. But If readers want to review the three main posts concerned, I provided the links.
Spencer’s main posts are general brief, so the reading isn’t hard. There are only 68 comments for the three main posts.
Others need to draw their own conclusions if they want to compare what spencer and others actually said. I know what spencer did and did not state. I also know what I stated under his main posts. Others, though, may not. Hence, the three little links.