Advance Durable Goods Orders

By Spencer;

The new data that durable goods orders jumped 4.9% from June to July is a nice indicator that the economy is bottoming and it clearly beat expectations. Yes, a large part of the jump was civilian aircraft orders that tend to be lumpy, but even excluding civilian aircraft orders jumped
1.9% month to month.

On a smoothed basis non-defense capital goods orders — a good leading indicator of capital spending in the GDP accounts is also showing nice gains. The compound three month growth rate for the total is 41%, and excluding aircraft it is 15.5%.

With all the news on the deficit, health care, etc., etc., the normal sources seem to be overlooking this report.