Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

A different sort of crowding out

rdan Money Central presents a dilemma for shareholders in goods and services: The old notion that profitable companies with good growth prospects should have rising share prices — and that failures like GM should be gone, or at least trading in the pennies — is history. Today, a hedge fund investing billions using a quantitative […]

Federal pre-emption of bank regs curtailed by Supreme Court

rdan Seeking Alpha notes a Supreme Court ruling on federal pre-emption of state regulation of banks. Google on Angry Bear OCC for posts on the issue. In a surprising 5-4 vote, the Supreme Court ruled that national banks are still subject to the laws of the states they operate in. What made the ruling unusual […]

Rumours of "Green Shoots" are Exaggerated: Illinois

After my previous posts on Georgia, it seems only fair to note the bank closings in Illinois today. There have been 13 bank closings posted (as of right now, about 6:50pm) in the state of Illinois since last March. That alone is significant—but, even more interesting, six of them occurred today. This exceeds the previous […]

The Problem with Macro is Micro

John Quiggin makes the broad case (link fixed). If you are then stuck with trying to present a Grand Unified Field Theory, you will inevitably lose (or, at best, reduce) the importance of all the agglomerations that follow from the presumption that the Rational Actor is the mean performer—ignoring that no one, including the economists […]

Thinking on Health care funding. It’s getting wacky!

by Divorced one like Bush So, American’s put an intellectual in the president’s seat. It’s been called pragmatism. We cheer the return of science and thus critical thinking to our politics. Yet, here we are at the cusp of the next great societal character development issue since we figured out after the depression there was […]

EMPLOYMENT REPORT

By Spencer The June employment report sent a clear message to expect more of the same. It showed essentially no signs of improvement as payroll employment fell -467,000 and the unemployment rate rose to 9.5% The average work week — considered a leading indicator of employment growth — dropped to 33.0 hours and the index […]

The second part of the trade deficit: oil

rdan Finfacts From 1995 to 2008, the annual US trade deficit with China grew from $34 to $266 billion, accounting for virtually all of the increase in the US non-oil deficit from $44 to $282 billon. Imported oil petroleum contributes significantly to the US trade deficits. From 1995 to 2008, the petroleum deficit increased from […]

Morici and US trade deficits (China and oil)

Peter Morici gets to the point in this paper in Finfacts on the first half of what we need to face. I hear little from naysayers of ‘protectionism’ on this point of manipulating trade advantages. Fixing credit markets and energy policy are largely domestic challenges, whereas recalibrating trade with China requires cooperation from Beijing. However, […]

Those Who Think the "Left of Center" is Too Tough on N. Gregory Mankiw

should read Sensible Centrist J. Bradford DeLong on the difference in forecasting between the current Administration and the CEA under N. Gregory Mankiw. Romer/Bernstein/Kreuger et al., 2008-9 edition: As I understand matters, last December the median private-sector forecast had the unemployment rate topping out at 9% in the second half of 2009. The incoming Obama […]