employment report

By Spencer

The employment report shows the economy accelerating to the downside.

This is now the worse employment drop in the post WW II era. The index is now at 97.1
(100= peak) as compared to 99.0 at this point in both the 1974 and 1981 cycles.

Hours worked continue to accelerate downward

Although wages are holding up, it is probably more because the lowest paid employees are the ones losing their jobs rather than the more experienced, higher paid employees. My equation
says wages growth should be slowing more than it is.

It is now time to worry about deflation, not inflation.

P.S. Interesting footnote: The year-over-year growth of the civilian labor force is now negative for the first time since 1962.