By: Divorced one like Bush
No body knows, how dry I am. I went home, I rang the bell, my wife came out and gave me hell.
Juan posted a link to this paper: OPEC Pricing Power, The Need for a New Perspective
Besides the issue of how oil is priced, and the relationship of the futures market (yes, it is related to the real thingy) there are some numbers presented as to future expected oil production via IEA.
In an exercise which focuses on Middle East and North Africa (MENA) oil and gas resources, the IEA (2005) projects in the reference scenario a rise in MENA oil production from the 2004 level of 29 mbd to 33 mbd in 2010 and 50 mbd in 2030. In this scenario, Saudi Arabia will remain the largest supplier increasing its output from 10.4 mbd in 2004 to 11.9 mbd in 2010 and over 18 mbd in 2030.
MENA was projected to pump 50,000,000 barrels per day in just 22 years from now.
From this paper: Analysis of Crude Oil Production in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge May 2008
In the low and high ANWR oil resource cases, additional oil production resulting from the opening of ANWR peaks in 2028 at 510,000 and 1.45 million barrels per day, respectively.
Between 2018 and 2030, cumulative additional oil production is 2.6 billion barrels for the mean oil resource case, while the low and high resource cases project a cumulative additional oil production of 1.9 and 4.3 billion barrels, respectively.
So, let us apply some Angry Bear thinking. At the pumping rate in 2030 of MENA, under the best of realizations of ANWR (4.3 billion barrels of oil waiting for our binge), MENA could pump it dry in 86 days! Three months. A lousy 3 months.
But you say: Hey bartender, Hey man, looka here…
In 2003 they say we have 59,090,000,000 barrels of oil in the lower 48 and off shore. With ANWR’s best reality, that gives us a total of 63,390,000,000 barrels of oil. Billions and billions of barrels.
A draw one, draw two, draw three four glasses of beer… at 50,000,000 barrels a day we can drink for 1267.8 days. That is 3.47 years. That’s it. No more home brew. At our rate of use, 20,687,000 barrels/day, we’re dry in 8.4 years. That’s only about 2/3rds of the amount of time I keep a vehicle. I won’t be able to wear out my car!
Still not convinced that drilling is not much of an answer? Then consider that in 2005 the US drank 7,500,000,000 gallons of beer. There are 42 gallons in a barrel of oil. That means the US drank in that year 1,785,471,428.6 OBB (oil barrels of beer). Thus, at the rate we drink beer, we could hit the bottom of the barrel in 35.5 years. If EIA’s highend is correct, we can drink ANWR beer for 2.4 year. If not, then we’re going to be jonesing in just over 1 year.