Leading Indicators

Normally I don’t pay too much attention to the Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators. I’m not at all convinced that they have good predictive power; at best I think they reflect the overall trend in the economy at a particular point in time. But this story caught my attention:

Economic indicator sinks for 4th month

Conference Board’s index of leading indicators slips 0.1%, matching forecasts.

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) – A gauge meant to forecast the economy’s direction fell for the fourth straight month in September, a research group reported Thursday, matching forecasts on Wall Street.

Four straight months of declines does seem to suggest a trend, I think. I almost hate to say it, but perhaps more people are starting to share my worries about how the economy will do in 2005.