Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Total War?

… Political Total War, not total war in Iraq, that is. Let’s look at the facts: While the degree of the bounce is contentious, Bush got a real bounce in August (see also, here). The month of August, between the Swift Boat BS and the convention (Bush’s speech aside) was extremely negative, and conducted with […]

The Natural Employment-Population Ratio

This Labor Day weekend is a good time to discuss two ways of viewing the state of the U.S. labor market. The President’s reaction to the August employment report was to suggest that the fall in the unemployment rate was a sign of an improving labor market. But the unemployment rate is simply one minus […]

Bush’s Solution to Rising Health Care Costs

As has been pointed out here in several posts over the past few months (e.g., see here, here, and here), the rapidly rising cost of health care in the US is a large and growing problem. In his speech the other night, Bush reiterated his plan to get the rising cost of health care in […]

Stepford Voters Boo Clinton

Political Animal posts this from an AP story: President Bush on Friday wished Bill Clinton “best wishes for a swift and speedy recovery.” “He’s is in our thoughts and prayers,” Bush said at a campaign rally. Bush’s audience of thousands in West Allis, Wis., booed. Bush did nothing to stop them. In fairness, Kevin provides […]

A Distributional Analysis of the National Sales Tax

The Effects of Replacing Most Federal Taxes with a National Sales Tax A State-by-State Distributional Analysis by the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy begins by quoting President Bush: You know, I’m not exactly sure how big the national sales tax is going to have to be, but it’s the kind of interesting idea that […]

The BLS Household Survey Numbers

Since Sec. Snow and Sec. Chao preferred the Household Survey numbers last month, let’s oblige them this month too. This measure has employment rising by only 21,000. President Bush is currently touting the fall in the unemployment rate. But he forget to tell the audience that the reason this rate fell is that the reported […]

August Jobs Report

From the BLS: Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 144,000 in August, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 5.4 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Over the month, job growth occurred in several service-providing industries. This is a decent employment report, in line with expectations, but […]

Postcards from Old Europe – Out of Balance The economic news flow in the last couple of weeks was dominated by the price of oil. Other data releases were mostly relegated to the minor leagues ore duly reported and then ignored. Take the June trade deficit which was reported at the beginning of August. Jaded […]

Bush’s "Visionary" Speech

Bush’s acceptance speech has for weeks been billed as his time to finally present his agenda for the next four years. Karen Hughes promised that the speech would be “visionary”. I have been particularly interested in his proposals for domestic policy, since the US is currently facing a number of serious economic problems that need […]

Counterattacking Bush

Kerry has suffered (though only slightly, according to polls) from the personal attacks the Republicans have made on him over the past month. Now there are some gathering signs that a multi-pronged counterattack is beginning. Over the weekend there was the statement by Ben Barnes, former Speaker of the Texas House, that he was “ashamed” […]