Al Qaeda, the US Elections, and a Little Logic

Item #1: This past week the Bush administration warned that Al Qaeda is seeking to “disrupt the democratic process” by launching terrorist attacks in the US during the period leading up to the November election.

Item #2: Nearly everyone (at least nearly all of those whose opinions I’ve heard) thinks that a terrorist attack in the US is likely to have the effect of causing people to rally around the President, boosting his popularity, at least temporarily. In the immediate aftermath of a terrorist attack, it seems likely that people will prefer stability to a change in leadership.

Item #3: Al Qaeda probably knows about item #2.

Now apply some logic. Items #2 and #3 imply that Al Qaeda would only attack the US if they want Bush to remain president. Furthermore, item #1 implies two things. First, if it is true Al Qaeda wants to attack the US before the election, then this is our first evidence that Al Qaeda does indeed want Bush to win the election. Second, item #1 tells us that the Bush administration knows this.

Let me repeat that. These three items taken together mean that the Bush administration knows that Al Qaeda would rather have them in office than a Kerry administration. Think very carefully about what this means before you go about your business.


p.s. Of course the real October surprise could be this (we should credit Greg for being the first with this story around these parts), but this doesn’t affect the logic above in the slightest, and our conclusions remain unchanged.