Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

The things John Williams does not say…

John Williams who is the president and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco published a letter yesterday explaining unconventional monetary policies. First I want to appreciate the clarity and simplicity with which John Williams is able to communicate complex ideas. His voice is honest, transparent and credible. What did he […]

An alternative IS-LM look into the future

The IS-LM model is built upon two markets, the goods market (IS) and the money market (LM). The alternative view in this post will incorporate the effective demand limit into the IS-LM model. Money Market First The money market is described by a plot of the interest rate (y-axis) and the quantity of money (x-axis). The […]

Is there an inflation blowback coming from China?

James Rickards wrote the book Currency Wars a few years back. (source video) He is supported by the Charles Koch Institute. He says the US wanted China to appreciate their currency, so that the dollar would depreciate, because the fed wanted to import inflation in order to meet their nominal GDP targets. His view is […]

Do lower wages REALLY increase the natural level of output? Aren’t they missing something?

One thing that is seen sometimes is a strange teaching in economics and business. The teaching says that lower costs of production will increase the natural level of real GDP output. Now the natural level of real GDP output is considered the limit at which the economy can produce. It is seen as the total […]

Does targeting low inflation cause higher unemployment?

Does targeting low inflation lead to higher unemployment? In other words, is it possible that a higher natural rate of unemployment is necessary to maintain a lower rate of inflation? Output and prices move together to maintain economic momentum. Normally output increases in response to demands in the market, which keeps prices stable. Yet, at […]

The Inflation game (part 2 and wonkish)

Whereas David Romer will say that the low inflation rate is a result of the zero lower bound. I would say that BOTH the low inflation rate and the zero lower bound result from the weak consumer liqudity due to very low labor share. In the previous post, I wrote about how inflation is a […]

Inflation is a game of cat and mouse

I have been reading David Romer’s class notes called Short-run fluctuations. Part of his paper deals with a model to explain inflation in a liquidity trap. The model is based on real interest rates, output, expected inflation, Keynesian cross and IS-MP model stuff. He writes… “An economy where the nominal interest rate is zero poses […]

Improvement in employment will signal the end of the business cycle

An issue arose in the comments at a previous post, Labor share is chopped liver to Mr. Krugman. The issue is whether increasing employment in order to increase wages and labor share is a good strategy for fiscal and monetary policy. Dean Baker, Paul Krugman and others put forth this strategy. It seems common understanding […]