…week. If claims do not fall back in coming weeks, the unemployment rate will rise again. This could indicate the outset of a contracting economy. Weekly diesel production shows an…

…is decelerating precipitously. Exhibit 1: import demand for manufactured goods from 22.5% of the world (see chart at the end of this post) is slowing quickly, even contracting. The chart…

…falling toward the feared 50 (below which the manufacturing industry is contracting) – 50.7, 50.9, and 50.4, respectively. The UK PMI fell below 50 to 49.1 in July. I would…

…indicating a recession – they are contracting on an annual basis. However, the contraction in claims is slowing, -8.4% Y/Y, which is much slower than the average -13% annual drop…

…lump-of-labor fallacy (the term “lump work,” designating labor sub-contracting, can be traced back to Henry Mayhew’s 1851 London Labour and the London Poor). That attribution has not been challenged and…

…years (4%). According to John Williams’ Shadow Statistics website, M3 is still contracting at (roughly because I don’t subscribe to the data) 4% over the year. The relationship in the…

…for continued growth. But that optimistic premise should be tempered by the point that one of the reasons capacity utilization is rising is that industrial capacity is actually contracting. It…

…employment policy), or in a bad way , whereby a contracting economy and rising unemployment, produce larger deficits via the automatic stabilisers moving to shore up demand as the economy…

…contracting and the growth of potential real GDP is at record lows. For this year, I do not expect this to impact many prices outside of basic commodities, but in…

Discussion point: Is it time for the Fed to start contracting its’ balance sheet and otherwise withdrawing the special financing it provided while it was faced with the zero interest…