This post will lay out a way to incorporate a NGDP target into a policy rate rule, so that the rule steers inflation back to a NGDP target, not to an inflation target. First, the equation for a NGDP target. NGDP target, Nt = real rate of output growth, Lr + desired long-run average core […]
Via Alternet: New data reveals our public—not private—school system is among the best in the world. In fact, except for the debilitating effects of poverty, our public school system may be the best in the world. The most recent data from the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) reveal that the U.S. ranked high, relative […]
Larry Summers and Brad DeLong have even more than usually stimulating thoughts about secular stagnation and extremely low interest rates. I notice a strong focus on non residential fixed capital investment. disclaimer: I owe debts I can never repay to both of them, so this post might even be civil. Summers responds to Marc Andreesen […]
A nominal GDP target makes sense. If inflation runs below target for a while, it makes sense for inflation to run over target in the future in order to achieve the desired long run growth to inflation. So how might a policy rule to determine the Fed rate be modified for a NGDP target? A […]
Guest post by Nathan Salminen (is a lawyer and an amateur economic and political researcher. Nathan has been politically active for many years, including working for the Senate Committee on the Judiciary as a law clerk. Nathan currently practices law in New York and runs Politics that work.) Dan here…this is the second part to […]
Dan here…When in Fort Lauderdale, FL to visit a son and his girlfriend this Christmas, I ran into the phenomenon of ‘lots of stuff’ as they furnished their new apartment. Both real estate turnover and ‘used furniture’ were thriving industries, I assume partly from the turnover of ‘snowbirds’ and younger folk offering services to this […]
Just when I thought I had finally gotten out they pull me back in. Matt Yglesias , Tyler Cowen and Kevin Drum have noticed that US GDP growth picked up exactly when US austerity stopped (as I noted here). The pattern is so strong that it looks similar even though Yglesias, Drum and I graph […]
Sorry to bother angrybears, but I must confess I can’t stop looking at the same 20 data points. A pointless post not up to angrybear standards post is here (it is a follow up of the equally pointless post here)
by Barkley Rosser at Econospeak Has The Oil Price Drop Come To An End? Very likely. Reports from November report that the Saudi government has been preparing its budget for the price of oil to be between $45 and $50 per barrel. The price rose during the last two days and fell slightly today, with […]
Gail Tverberg offers her view on possible ramifications of the severe drop in prices for oil and debt financed growth: There are really two different problems that a person can be concerned about: Peak oil: the possibility that oil prices will rise, and because of this production will fall in a rounded curve. Substitutes that […]