Tracking Trump’s trade wars: inventories and intermodal traffic Here’s something I thought I would start to track: looking for evidence of the effects of Trump’s trade wars on manufacturing and distribution. Producers and distributors aren’t simply going to sit back and wait to absorb new tariff expenses: we should expect them to engage in as […]
Is the taboo against raising wages beginning to break? It’s a *really* slow news week for economic data — just producer and consumer prices tomorrow and Thursday. Even JOLTS doesn’t come out until next week. But there was one little nugget of good news this morning: the NFIB, which represents small businesses, came out with their […]
September jobs report: a mixed report with different implications in different timeframes HEADLINES: +134,000 jobs added U3 unemployment rate declined -0.2% from 3.9% to 3.7% U6 underemployment rate rose from 7.4% to 7.5% Here are the headlines on wages and the broader measures of underemployment: Wages and participation rates Not in Labor Force, but Want […]
The simple Fed funds + payrolls leading indicator: autumn update While we are waiting for tomorrow’s jobs report, let me update my alternative Fed funds + payrolls leading indicator for the economy, which I debuted earlier this year. This was the result of looking for an interest rate indicator that did not rely upon the […]
Trump’s trade war isn’t hurting manufacturing . . . yet The Trump Administration’s trade war hasn’t hurt manufacturing and production yet. At least that’s the message from this morning’s ISM report on manufacturing. According to the ISM: The September PMI®registered 59.8 percent, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the August reading of 61.3 percent. […]
I Was Wrong: US-Mexico Trade Deal Lives With Canada: USMCA Rather Than NAFTA At the last minute last night the US and Canada cut a deal, so now Canada is on on the deal to change NAFTA to USMCA. I think the name change is the biggest part of it, even though Trump still claims […]
Housing: comprehensive review of August reports – by New Deal democratI pay particular attention to housing because it is ian important long leading indicator for the economy. And more and more evidence is accumulating — although it is not universal — that housing may have passed its peak in this cycle. Last year housing was resued […]
The *rate* of new jobless claims, at all-time lows, forecasts even lower unemployment I thought I’d start out with something I haven’t looked at in awhile: initial jobless claims as a share of the population and as a leading indicator for the unemployment rate. This economic expansion has featured two contrary extremes in the labor […]
The US-Mexico Trade Deal Dies Nobody is calling it that, but the low key story on the back pages of Wednessday’s major papers report that this is what has happened, not to my surprise. September 29 (or maybe the 30th at a stretch) is the deadline for President Trump to submit to the Congress the […]
A Weak Defense of Citizen United: Ownership v. Control Many thanks to Peter Dorman for highlighting Citizens United As Bad Corporate Law. I guess we had to endure this comment, which is a really weak rebuttal: Corporate shareholders are most definitely owners; they alone have the authority to sell their shares or the company’s assets. Their rights are […]