The Repo Ruckus This is now about three weeks old news, but it is increasingly clear that it is not clear why it happened or if it will happen again. There was an outbreak of completely unexpected volatility in the repo market, where in the past the Fed had carried out open market operations, although […]
Opinion _ The Rich Really Do Pay Lower Taxes Than You – The New York Times Watch how radically taxes on the wealthy have fallen over the past 70 years: (Full column: https://t.co/XP0a4Iljti) pic.twitter.com/dGxmOjQ1b5 — David Leonhardt (@DLeonhardt) October 7, 2019
Expect a weak report for the leading jobs sectors on Friday September motor vehicle sales will be reported later today, after the domestic US manufacturers post their numbers. Sales of all other vehicles were down -13% YoY, but that is without seasonal adjustment including for Labor Day, so the seasonally adjusted sales might tell a […]
First-ever binding end to a border war: Missouri-Kansas UPDATED (Dan here late….August 2 post) Kansas Governor Laura Kelly has just signed an executive order that prohibits state subsidies being used to move existing Missouri firms in four Missouri counties to three Kansas counties, which together make up the Kansas City metropolitan area. Unlike previous voluntary no-raiding […]
Dean Baker considers whether Trump’s group of supporters would be able to manipulate the bureacracies of the federal government to alter the economic outlook of the nation in a more expansive way than Larry Kudlow and others, but the data itself ( if that is even needed?) He says not likely, but how creative would […]
August retail sales confirm healthy consumer sector Retail sales are one of my favorite indicators, because in real terms they can tell us so much about the present, near term forecast, and longer term forecast for the economy. This morning retail sales for August were reported up +0.4%, and July, which was already very good […]
I have been looking at the data recently to find economic series that would quickly reflect the impact of rising tariffs on the consumer. One is Retail Sales: GAFO. Think of it as department store type merchandise — goods excluding autos, food and energy. It is reported every month in both the Census retail sales […]
Two sharply contrasting reports on the economy to start September We got two contrasting views of the economy this morning. (Tuesday) First, the good news: residential construction spending increased in July. Below I show it in comparison with single family permits: Typically construction follows permits. In the past few years, it has been almost coincident […]
The Hurricane/Picture of Dorian Gray: A Perfect Moral Storm in Three Texts Andreas Malm, Fossil Capital: The temporal aspect is particularly striking,’ writes philosopher Stephen Gardiner, who has done perhaps more than anyone to foreground it, in A Perfect Moral Storm: The Ethical Tragedy of Climate Change: it catches us in a bind. Given that global warming […]
(Dan here…better late than not) by New Deal democrat An extended look at jobless claims, and a note about payrolls Let’s take an extended look at jobless claims, with a side note about payrolls. First, I have started to monitor initial jobless claims to see if there are any signs of stress. My two thresholds are:1. […]