Just when I thought I had finally gotten out they pull me back in. Matt Yglesias , Tyler Cowen and Kevin Drum have noticed that US GDP growth picked up exactly when US austerity stopped (as I noted here). The pattern is so strong that it looks similar even though Yglesias, Drum and I graph […]
Sorry to bother angrybears, but I must confess I can’t stop looking at the same 20 data points. A pointless post not up to angrybear standards post is here (it is a follow up of the equally pointless post here)
In the latest episode of Barack Unbound, the Obama administration has announced an important executive initiative. The Federal Housing Administration (FHA) will cut the fee it charges to insure mortgages from 1.35% of the value of the mortgage to 0.85%. It will also try to encourage lenders to relax lending standards. I suspect that this […]
I am wondering why the rate of US house construction remains so low. I see two candidate explanations. The first is that lending standards remain very tight — the mortgage lenders having been very badly burnt once remain twice shy. The other is that potential house buyers no longer perceive owner occupied housing to be […]
I have been pinged @Noahpinion @sjwrenlewis also pinging @interfluidity @robertwaldmann @Frances_Coppola and anyone else who wants to get involved. — Michael Harris (@MichaelH_PhD) January 7, 2015 and am so flattered to be pinged in such company that I decided I had to read the Jeff Sachs article on Krugman Austerity and the Obama recovery and […]
This is a pointless follow up post to this post which got some attention. As suggested by New Keynesian models, the old post considered G — government consumption plus investment. Here I am going to look at total expenditures (including transfers) and total revenues. Also I will consider only the Federal Government (due to FRED […]
Stephen Williamson wrote a critique of this post which critique was praised by David Andolfato and Noah Smith. Williamson critiques the Keynesianism defined as So, as I learned from Dick Lipsey in 1975, and my cat learned last fall, Keynesian Cross is (1) C = A + cY, (2) Y = C + I + […]
(Dan here update…other posts by Robert Waldmann on the issues can be found here, here, here, and here.) G and GDP during the current recovery update Stephen Williamson asks “Where’s the multiplier” (I have read only the title not the post). Since I regressed rates of growth on rates of growth, my coefficient of grGDP on grG = 0.339 […]
Noah Smith has an excellent post which is very critical of something John Cochrane wrote. I added a couple more criticisms in comments Your post is very good as usual. I’d add a couple of things. Cochrane wrote “With the 2013 sequester, Keynesians warned that reduced spending and the end of 99-week unemployment benefits would […]
This is getting out of hand. A recent post received too many high quality comments. I discuss the discussion some here. The general view expressed in the discussion is that it sure looks as if non residential fixed capital investment as a percent of GDP expressed (nrfinvgdp) and nominal interest rates are positively correlated, because […]