by New Deal democrat Q3 2018 update: “Kasriel Recession Warning Indicator” One of the methods I incorporate into my long leading indicators is the “Kasriel Recession Warning Indicator.” This is something I first read about in 2007, when the eponymous Paul Kasriel, then of Northern Trust and now of Legacy Private Trust Co., wrote that […]

by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for October 15 – 19 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Between them, high interest rates and tariffs are affecting the readings in all three timeframes. As usual, clicking on the link and reading the post puts a little coin in my pocket, as […]

by New Deal democrat Extended comments on industrial production, housing permits and starts at Seeking Alpha My take on the Industrial Production report yesterday, and my extended take on the housing permits and starts report this morning, are both up at Seeking Alpha. You can click on the respective links to access them. In each case, the YoY comparisons […]

(Dan here…lifted from Robert’s Stochastic Thoughts) Kevin Drum discusses single parent households Disqus won’t let me comment, so I post my comment on this post hereI am honestly impressed that you didn’t mention lead. So I will. The single parent household peak came later than the murder peak — as one would expect. Single parent households last […]

by Josepth Joyce The Continuing Dominance of the Dollar Ten years after the global financial crisis, we are still coming to an understanding of how profound a shock it was. The changes in political alignments within and across nations and the diminished public support for globalization continue. But one aspect of the financial system has […]