(Dan here…better late than not) by New Deal democrat An extended look at jobless claims, and a note about payrolls Let’s take an extended look at jobless claims, with a side note about payrolls. First, I have started to monitor initial jobless claims to see if there are any signs of stress. My two thresholds are:1. […]

by New Deal democrat Why the revised Q2 GDP report next week may be the most important release in 10 years Last Thursday there were major backward revisions to unit labor costs. Since corporate profits deflated by unit labor costs are a long leading indicator, this had a big negative effect on the forecast for […]

Many of the photos were taken before water and air pollution were fully regulated. The Clean Air Act was passed in 1970, and the Clean Water Act was passed in 1972. Baltimore, Birmingham, Cleveland, Delaware, Denver, Kansas, Los Angeles, New Orleans, New Jersey, New York, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and San Francisco all feature here, in shots filled […]

by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for August 12 – 16 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. The data continues to be dominated by a steep decline in long term interest rates. These have both inverted further portions of the yield curve and reinvigorated the housing market. As usual, clicking […]

Both Amazon and Fed ex have embarked on plans to deliver their own “last mile” package delivery previously contracted with the US Post Office. Here is a link to run75441 (postmaster Mark Jamison’s) piece on this process Fake News, Flawed Analysis, and Bogus Tweets from 2018 for a much more complete description. I have pulled […]

by New Deal democrat My preliminary long leading forecast through midyear 2020 This post is up at Seeking Alpha. This is my first look at economic conditions into next summer. I suspect that it is contrary to most punditry that you will read. In any event, as usual clicking over and reading helps reward me for […]